OECD Business and Finance Outlook 2018

Foreword......Page 5
Acronyms and abbreviations......Page 11
ISO country and currency abbreviations......Page 14
How to make infrastructure investment work for all......Page 15
The outlook for the global financial system......Page 17
Towards levelling the playing field for sustainable growth......Page 18
Chapter 1.  The financial system outlook......Page 21
1.1. Introduction......Page 22
1.2. Prospects for the unwinding of ultra-low interest rates and central bank assets......Page 24
Potential impacts on bond valuations......Page 29
Possible disruptive effects......Page 31
The need for liquidity in securities markets......Page 34
Interest rate rises and the growth of corporate cash flow......Page 35
1.3. Dealing with risks in the banking system through reforms......Page 37
Separation of investment banking from deposit taking businesses......Page 40
1.4. Risks building in the Chinese banking system......Page 43
Comparison of advanced-economy G-SIBs and Chinese G-SIBs......Page 47
Chinese policy views and responses at the 19th Party Conference......Page 49
1.5. Conclusions......Page 50
Notes......Page 51
References......Page 55
Note......Page 58
Emerging and developing economies......Page 61
Chapter 2.  The Belt and Road Initiative in the global trade, investment and finance landscape......Page 63
2.1. Introduction......Page 64
2.2. Global infrastructure needs......Page 65
2.3. The Belt and Road Initiative as a strategy to promote and sustain growth......Page 69
The six economic corridors of the BRI......Page 70
Sustainable development motivations......Page 73
Energy and food security motivations......Page 74
Improving efficiency......Page 75
Relocation of low-technology industries abroad......Page 77
2.6. The financing of connectivity projects within the BRI......Page 80
Potential debt issues to watch out for......Page 81
2.7. High-technology corporate investments, China’s technology and troubled assets......Page 82
Promoting Chinese technical standards and services......Page 86
Promoting Chinese energy solution technologies......Page 87
Potential investment issues to watch out for......Page 88
2.8. The BRI as a platform for promoting trade......Page 89
Trade blocs and regional trade agreements......Page 90
2.9. Concluding comments......Page 92
Notes......Page 93
References......Page 95
Annex 2.A. Trade Gravity Model......Page 100
Note......Page 101
Emerging and developing economies......Page 103
Chapter 3.    Reaping the full benefits of large infrastructure projects......Page 105
3.1. Introduction......Page 106
SOE governance and the level playing field......Page 108
National security concerns......Page 110
Santiago Principles-like arrangements......Page 111
Possible gaps in legal accountability for SOEs abroad......Page 112
Foreign state immunity and private party claims......Page 113
Policy recommendations......Page 114
Competition in bidding......Page 115
Fighting bribery and corruption......Page 118
Promoting responsible business conduct......Page 120
Mitigating corruption risks in public investment......Page 124
Barriers to foreign direct investment......Page 125
Potential benefits of greater openness......Page 127
3.6. Policy recommendations......Page 128
Notes......Page 130
References......Page 132
Emerging and developing economies......Page 136