Next-Generation of Empirical Research in Economics

Contents
Editors and Contributors
1 Introduction
	1.1 Introduction
	1.2 The Structure of This Book
	1.3 Characteristics of This Book
	References
Part I The Meaning and Significance of the Credibility Revolution in Empirical Economics
2 Intergenerational Transformation of Empirical Research in Economics
	2.1 Introduction
	2.2 Microeconometrics as the First Generation
		2.2.1 Traditional Microeconometrics
		2.2.2 Field Surveys and Collection of Panel Data
	2.3 Limitations of the First Generation
	2.4 Social Experiments as the Second Generation
	2.5 Problems of “Reproducibility,” “Practicability,” and “Stakeholder Exclusion” Faced by the Second Generation
		2.5.1 Problems with Reproducibility
		2.5.2 Limitations of Practicability
		2.5.3 The Problem of Excluding Stakeholders
	2.6 Whither the Third Generation?
		2.6.1 The Evolution of Hybrid Data and the Move Towards ‘Open’ Research
		2.6.2 Strengthening Collaboration Between Industry, Government, Academia, and Civil Society
	2.7 Conclusion
	2.8 Comment: Contemplating the “Third Generation” of Empirical Economics Research
		2.8.1 Introduction
		2.8.2 Identity Crisis of Economics?
		2.8.3 Can the “Exclusion of Stakeholders” Be Resolved?
		2.8.4 Concerns Regarding the Formalization of Institutions and the “Progress” of Economic Research
		2.8.5 What Is the Role of Economists in Industry-Government-Academia-Civil Society Collaboration?
		2.8.6 Conclusion
	2.9 Reply: Aiming to Contribute to Empirical Economics as a Third-Generation Stakeholder
	References
3 Implementing Empirical Economics into Policymaking
	3.1 Introduction
	3.2 Policy-Based Evidence
		3.2.1 EBPM and Policy Makers
		3.2.2 Social Benefits and Costs of Policy-Based Evidence
	3.3 Role Sharing of Industry, Government, Academia, and Civil Society
		3.3.1 Attempts to Bridge the Gap
		3.3.2 Two Examples of Collaboration
	3.4 The Role of Universities and Think Tanks
		3.4.1 The Role of Universities
		3.4.2 The Role of Policy Think Tanks
	3.5 Conclusion
	3.6 Comment: Towards the Social Implementation of Economics: Recent Research Trends and Remaining Challenges
		3.6.1 Introduction
		3.6.2 Information Gathering for Policy Formulation
		3.6.3 Coordination of Conflicting Interests and Planning for Policy Formulation
		3.6.4 Policy Implementation and Modification
		3.6.5 Policy Evaluation
		3.6.6 Conclusion: Indispensable Attitudes of Researchers for Applying Evidence to Policy
	3.7 Reply: Process of Decision-Making by Policymakers and Ingenuity Required for Researchers
	References
4 Challenges in Empirical Research in Economics: The Way Forward
	4.1 Introduction
	4.2 Recent Trends in Economics Journals
	4.3 Comparison of RCTs and NEs
	4.4 Reconsidering the Evidence Pyramid
	4.5 Learning from Pioneering Studies
	4.6 Conclusion
	4.7 Comment: How Can the Authors Guide the “Field Reality” Jungle?
		4.7.1 Introduction
		4.7.2 About “Field Reality”
		4.7.3 Empirical Papers Without Causal Inference
		4.7.4 Challenges and Overcoming Them
		4.7.5 Conclusion
	4.8 Reply: The Nature of the “Field Reality” Jungle
	References
Part II Empirical Problems in Each Field of Economics
5 The Next Generation of Empirical Labor Economics
	5.1 Introduction
	5.2 Identification Strategy
	5.3 Data
	5.4 Research Themes
	5.5 Conclusion
	5.6 Comment: Toward the Next Generation of Labor Economics Research
		5.6.1 Introduction
		5.6.2 Economic Experiments
		5.6.3 Toward the Use of High-Quality Data
		5.6.4 Conclusion
	5.7 Reply: What is Needed to Advance the Next Generation of Empirical Labor Economics
	References
6 Past and Future of Empirical Development Economics
	6.1 Introduction: Trends in Development Economics up to 2010
		6.1.1 Eve of the Randomized Controlled Trial (RCT) Revolution
		6.1.2 RCT Revolution
	6.2 Evolution of Empirical Analysis Methods and Research Progress
		6.2.1 Impact Evaluation 2.0 and Interest in External Validity
		6.2.2 Estimation of Economic Models
		6.2.3 From Small Questions to Big Questions: The Rise of Development Macroeconomic,
		6.2.4 At-Scale and Long-Term RCTs
		6.2.5 Data Revolution
	6.3 Challenges and Future Perspectives
		6.3.1 Neglect of Local Context
		6.3.2 Challenges with the Scaling-Up and Long-Term RCT Implementation
		6.3.3 Future Prospects
	6.4 Conclusion
	6.5 Comment: Development Economics as Policy Science: Challenges and Future Vision
		6.5.1 Introduction
		6.5.2 Replicability of Randomized Controlled Trials and Meta-analyses
		6.5.3 Conclusion: Future Vision of Development Economics
	6.6 Reply: Toward a Broad Policy Formation: Using Empirical Research Results in Development Economics
	References
7 Empirical Analysis in the Economics of International Trade: Recent Progress and Challenges
	7.1 Introduction
	7.2 Use of Observational Data
		7.2.1 Difference in Differences (DID)
		7.2.2 Instrumental Variable Method
	7.3 Natural Experiments
	7.4 Randomized Controlled Trials
	7.5 Simulation
	7.6 Conclusion
	7.7 Comment: The Present and Future of DID Analysis and Gravity Equations in the Field of International Trade
		7.7.1 Introduction
		7.7.2 DID Analysis
		7.7.3 Gravity Equation
		7.7.4 Conclusion
	7.8 Reply: Remarks on Difference in Differences (DID) Estimations
	References
8 From Behavioral Economics to Behavioral Science: A Message from the “New Humans” to the “Modern Humans”
	8.1 Introduction
	8.2 Discrepancy Between Scientific Evidence and Public Interest
	8.3 The Pros and Cons of Removing “Economics” from “Behavioral Economics”
	8.4 The Dilemma of Rigorous Analysis
	8.5 Problems of Neglecting Reason in Data-Driven Analysis
	8.6 The Significance and Problems of Paper Ranking by the Peer Review System
	8.7 Conclusion
	8.8 Comment: Expectations and Criticisms of Behavioral Economics
		8.8.1 Introduction
		8.8.2 Why is Behavioral Economics Criticized?
		8.8.3 Conclusion: Academic Contributions from Policy Research
	8.9 Reply: Behavioral Economists as Players
	References
9 “Swallowed” Economic History: The Significance of Economic History Research in Economics
	9.1 Introduction
	9.2 Global Trends and Characteristics of Economic History Research: Comparing Recent Trends in the Three Major Journals
		9.2.1 Economics and Economic History or Economic History of Economics?
		9.2.2 Comparing the Three Major Journals: Analytical Method, Region, and Period
		9.2.3 Comparison of the Three Major Journals: What and with Whom?
	9.3 Is Economic History Swallowed up by Economics?
		9.3.1 Will Economic History ‘Merge’ into Historical Economics?
		9.3.2 Economic History Research in Japan and Global Trends
		9.3.3 Learning from Research on Japanese Economic History Overseas
	9.4 Conclusion: Future Prospects
	9.5 Economic History and Empirical Economics: From Unfriendly Neighborhood Relations to Companionship
		9.5.1 Introduction
		9.5.2 Integration into Economics and Quantification
		9.5.3 Overseas Research on Japanese Economic History
		9.5.4 What Is the Ultimate Goal of Historical Research?
		9.5.5. Conclusion
	9.6 Reply: What Is Needed for Companionship? What Is Necessary for an Independent “Friendly” Neighborhood?
	References
10 Difficulties in Conducting Empirical Research in Macroeconomics: Evaluating Policies for Economic Growth
	10.1 Introduction
	10.2 Meaning of Analyzing Economic Development at the Macro Level
		10.2.1 Externality
		10.2.2 General Equilibrium
		10.2.3 Need for Justification of Policies by General Equilibrium Theory
	10.3 Incorporating Dynamics
		10.3.1 Business Cycle and Economic Growth
		10.3.2 Economic Crisis and Economic Growth
		10.3.3 Challenges of Empirical Research Brought About by Different Economic Growth Theory Models
		10.3.4 Institutions and Growth
		10.3.5 Discrepancy Between GDP and Social Welfare
	10.4 Understanding the Stochastic Nature of the World
	10.5 Conclusion
	10.6 Comment: The Gap Between Demand for and Supply of Empirical Macroeconomic Research
		10.6.1 Introduction: Chapter Summary and Overview of My Comments
		10.6.2 Empirical Research on Business Cycles
		10.6.3 Empirical Research on Economic Growth
		10.6.4 Conclusion
	10.7 Reply: Research in Macroeconomics and Real-World Problems
	References
11 Conclusion
	11.1 Introduction
	11.2 Diversity of Fields and the Credibility Revolution
	11.3 Importance of Understanding the Real World
	11.4 Importance of Diverse Collaboration
	11.5 Next-Generation of Empirical Economics
	References
Afterword
Author Index
Subject Index