Next generation demand management : people, process, analytics, and technology

Content: Foreword xiii     Preface xv     Acknowledgments xxi     About the Author xxiii     Chapter 1 The Current State 1     Why Demand Management Matters More Than Ever 4     Current Challenges and Opportunities 14     Primary Obstacles to Achieving Demand Management Planning Goals 21     Why Do Companies Continue to Dismiss the Value of Demand Management? 23     Summary 28     Key Learnings 29     Notes 30     Further Reading 30     Chapter 2 The Journey 31     Starting the Supply Chain Journey 32     Introducing Sales & Operations Planning (S&OP) into the Supply Chain Journey 34     Sales & Operations Planning Connection 34     Transitioning to a Demand-Driven Supply Chain 40     The Digitalization of the Supply Chain 46     Leveraging New Scalable Technology 51     Benefits 52     Summary 53     Key Learnings 54     Notes 57     Chapter 3 The Data 59     What Is Big Data? 60     Why Is Downstream Data Important? 68     Demand Management Data Challenges 71     CPG Company Case Study 75     Does Demand History Really Need to Be Cleansed? 78     How Much Data Should Be Used? 81     Demand-Signal Repositories 82     What Is Demand Signal Analytics? 86     Demand Signal Analytics Key Benefits 87     Summary 89     Key Learnings 91     Notes 92     Further Reading 93     Chapter 4 The Process 95     Centers of Forecasting Excellence 97     Demand Management Champion 99     Demand-Driven Planning 100     What Is Demand Sensing and Shaping? 100     A New Paradigm Shift 113     Large-Scale Automatic Hierarchical Forecasting 115     Transactional Data 116     Time Series Data 117     Forecasting Models 117     Skill Requirements 120     Summary 121     Key Learnings 123     Further Reading 125     Chapter 5 Performance Metrics 127     Why MAPE Is Not Always the Best Metric 128     Why In-Sample/Out-of-Sample Measurement Is So Important 131     Forecastability 135     Forecast Value Added 137     Ho: Your Forecasting Process Has No Effect 138     Summary 144     Key Learnings 145     Notes 146     Further Reading 146     Chapter 6 The Analytics 147     Underlying Fundaments of Statistical Models 148     How Predictable Is the Future? 153     Importance of Segmentation of Your Products 157     Consumption-Based Modeling 167     Consumption-Based Modeling Using Multi-Tiered Causal Analysis 168     Consumption-Based Modeling Case Study 170     Summary 179     Key Learnings 180     Notes 181     Further Reading 181     Chapter 7 The Demand Planning Brief 183     Demand Planning Brief 186     Overview 187     Background 188     Recommended Forecast Methodology 188     Model Hierarchy 190     Model Selection Criteria 190     Supporting Information 192     Analytic Snapshot 194     Model Selection and Interpretation 199     Scenario Analysis 205     Summary 212     Key Learnings 213     Chapter 8 The Strategic Roadmap 215     Current State versus Future State 216     Current State 223     Future State 226     Gaps and Interdependencies 237     Strategic Roadmap 245     Summary 252     Index 253