Moods and Markets: A New Way to Invest in Good Times and in Bad

Foreword     xixIntroduction     1Chapter 1 Understanding Social Mood     11Mood Defined     12Mood Versus Emotion     14Confidence and Our Perceptions of Certainty     15The Continuum of Social Mood     20Individual Versus Social Mood     24Measuring Mood     25Social Mood and the Media     28Mood Groups     31Final Thoughts     32Chapter 2 Horizon Preference: How Mood Affects Our Decision Making     33The Horizon Preference Continuum     35Logical Decision Making in Periods of Rising Social Mood     39Logical Decision Making in Periods of Falling Social Mood     45Opportunities During Declining Social Mood     50Final Thoughts     52Chapter 3 Market Peaks and All the Red Flags They Wave     55The Concept Stock Bubble     56Big Truths     58Abdication of Risk Management     59Organizational Complexity     61Novice and Naive Entrants     62Credit, Architecture, and Other Signs of the Top     63Why Investment Peaks Are Different     68After the Peak     70Final Thoughts     71Chapter 4 A Social Mood Journey Back Through the Housing Bubble    73Modern Housing Finance     75A Big Truth     78Abdication of Risk Management     78Organizational Complexity     80Novice and Naive Entrants     82Excessive Credit and Architecture     83Final Thoughts     84Chapter 5 Is Higher Education a Bubble?     85A Big Truth     85Abdication of Risk Management     88Organizational Complexity     91Naive and Novice Participants     91Excessive Credit     92Architecture     93Final Thoughts     95Chapter 6 Signs of a Bottom in Social Mood     99Extreme "Me, Here, Now" Behaviors     100Hoarding Behaviors     101Acts of Sacrifice     104Event Versus Cycle Lows      108The Market Low of 2002     109The Market Low of March 2009      110The Market Bottom of 1932     112Seeing Major Market Bottoms in Real Time     113Social Mood and Invention     115Final Thoughts     120Chapter 7 Cooking the Books: Corporate Earnings and Social Mood     121Mood-Driven Accounting Principles     122Mood-Driven Management Judgment     125Mood-Driven "One Time" Charges     130Final Thoughts     133Chapter 8 Social Mood and the Markets Today: So Where Are We?     135Modern Day Extremes in Social Mood     139Communication and Transportation Innovations and Peaks in Social Mood     1412000 to 2012: Deteriorating Mood     142Plotting Social Mood     145A Long-Term Perspective on Social Mood and Stock Multiples     148Social Mood and the Evolution of Major Corporations     150Peak Social Mood and Sovereign Debt     154Final Thoughts     156Chapter 9 Using Horizon Preference No Matter Your Long-Term View     159Final Thoughts     166Chapter 10 Final Thoughts     169Bibliography     171Index     175