Models for Energy Policy (Routledge Studies in the History of Economic Modelling, 1)

Book Cover......Page 1
Half-Title......Page 2
Title......Page 4
Copyright......Page 5
Dedication......Page 6
Contents......Page 7
Figures......Page 9
Tables......Page 12
Contributors......Page 14
Acknowledgements......Page 16
Introduction......Page 17
Part I  New models and new modelling methodologies......Page 28
1.II.1 Energy demand......Page 29
1.II.4 Important caveats......Page 30
1.III.1 The translog revolution......Page 31
1.III.2 Panel data methodology......Page 33
1.III.3 McFadden’s application of discrete choice models......Page 34
NOTES......Page 35
REFERENCES......Page 36
INTRODUCTION......Page 37
2.I.1 Hotellinian models and applied models......Page 38
2.I.2 Price function in the POLES model......Page 39
2.II.1 The price of oil as the leading price for natural gas?......Page 42
2.II.3 Reconsidering oil prices......Page 44
2.III.1 Construction of simplified matrices of world trade in natural gas and coal......Page 46
2.III.2 The logic for closing regional and world markets by energy source......Page 48
NOTES......Page 49
3.I INTRODUCTION......Page 50
3.II.1 General features......Page 51
3.II.2 General description of the model......Page 52
3.III FORECAST ERRORS......Page 54
3.IV CONCLUSION......Page 57
NOTES......Page 59
REFERENCES......Page 60
4.I INTRODUCTION......Page 61
4.II.1 Design principles......Page 63
4.IV Introduction......Page 66
4.IV.2 Technical description......Page 67
4.IV.3 Electricity prices......Page 69
4.V.1 Introduction......Page 71
4.V.2 Technical description......Page 72
4.VI.1 Introduction......Page 73
4.VI.2 Technical description......Page 74
4.VII.2 Technical description......Page 75
REFERENCES......Page 77
INTRODUCTION......Page 81
5.I.1 Comparing matrices......Page 82
5.I.3 The projections......Page 83
5.I.4 The indicators......Page 84
5.II.1 Industry......Page 85
5.II.2 Product......Page 87
5.III.1 Industry......Page 88
5.III.2 Product......Page 90
5.IV.1 Industry......Page 93
5.IV.2 Product......Page 94
CONCLUSION......Page 95
REFERENCES......Page 96
6.I INTRODUCTION......Page 98
6.II.1 An event tree representation of uncertainty......Page 102
6.II.3 Reserve and capacity commitments......Page 104
6.III SIMULATION RUNS......Page 106
6.III.1 Influence of past commitments......Page 107
6.III.2 Influence of capacity expansion......Page 109
6.IV.1 A Scenario generator......Page 110
6.V.1 List of variables and parameters......Page 111
6.V.3 Constraints......Page 112
6.VI OPEN-LOOP APPROXIMATION......Page 113
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS......Page 114
REFERENCES......Page 115
7.I INTRODUCTION......Page 116
7.II.1 The relatively limited and variable share of gas as energy source in the EC......Page 117
7.II.2 Long-term contracts......Page 118
7.II.3 A partially interconnected system......Page 119
7.III.1 Context, constraints and objectives of the model......Page 120
7.III.2 Description of the model......Page 121
7.IV RESULTS......Page 124
7.IV.2 Scenarios (simulation exercises)......Page 125
7.V CONCLUSIONS AND FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS......Page 129
REFERENCES......Page 130
Appendix......Page 131
Part II Application to particular energy policy problems......Page 132
8.I.2 Basic structure2......Page 133
8.I.3 Oil price, GDP and other assumptions......Page 135
8.II.1 Major trends in energy demand......Page 136
8.II.2 Oil supply outlook......Page 139
8.III.2 Carbon taxes......Page 141
Notes......Page 142
9.II ENERGY DEMAND ELASTICITIES IN THE GROUP OF SEVEN COUNTRIES......Page 143
9.II.1 Energy demand by industry......Page 144
9.II.2 Demand for energy in the commercial and residential sectors......Page 147
9.II.3 Energy demand in transportation......Page 150
9.II.4 Energy demand in periods of rising and falling prices......Page 152
9.III SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS......Page 155
NOTES......Page 157
REFERENCES......Page 158
10.I.1 Vector autoregressive (VAR) models......Page 160
10.II MODEL SPECIFICATION......Page 161
10.III MODEL ESTIMATION......Page 162
10.III.1......Page 163
10.III.2 Restricted model (RVAR)......Page 166
10.IV CONCLUSIONS......Page 168
REFERENCES......Page 169
Appendix......Page 170
11.II THE PRESENT SITUATION......Page 179
11.III POLICY AND TAX HARMONIZATION CONCERNING OIL PRODUCTS: SOME FUNDAMENTAL ISSUES......Page 182
11.III.1 Energy demand management and environmental policies, and budgetary equilibrium constraint......Page 187
11.III.3 Possibilities for indirect tax harmonization on oil products within the EC......Page 189
11.III.4 Discussion......Page 192
REFERENCES......Page 194
INTRODUCTION......Page 195
12.I.1 Spontaneous behaviour......Page 196
12.I.2 More voluntary behaviour......Page 200
12.II ENERGY TAXATION AND ACCOMPANYING MEASURES......Page 203
12.II.1 Subsidies: the case of energy conservation investments......Page 204
12.II.2 The reduction of taxes......Page 205
12.II.3 Synthesis scenario......Page 208
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS......Page 210
NOTES......Page 211
13.I INTRODUCTION......Page 212
13.II HOUSEHOLD DEMANDS FOR AUTOMOBILE AND PETROL......Page 214
13.III ENERGY DEMANDS OF THE IRON AND STEEL INDUSTRY......Page 216
13.IV PRIMARY ENERGY DEMAND OF ELECTRIC UTILITIES......Page 220
13.V THE IMPACT OF A CO2 EMISSIONS TAX ON THE JAPANESE ECONOMY......Page 222
NOTES......Page 227
REFERENCES......Page 228
INTRODUCTION......Page 229
14.I THE STRUCTURE OF THE ELECTRICITY SECTOR IN  NORWAY......Page 230
14.II ORGANIZATION OF A MARKET-BASED ELECTRICITY SYSTEM: THE FUTURES MARKET......Page 232
14.III FUTURES CONTRACT: THE INSTRUMENT......Page 233
14.III.1 The size of the contract......Page 234
14.III.3 Settlement procedures......Page 235
14.IV CONCLUSIONS......Page 236
NOTES......Page 237
Index......Page 238