Modeling Behavior and Population Dynamics: Seabirds, Seals, and Marine Iguanas

Preface
Acknowledgments
Contents
I Modeling Behavior in Space and Time
	1 Predicting the Dynamics of Aggregate Loafing Behavior in Gulls
		1.1 Introduction
		1.2 Methods
			1.2.1 Historical Data
			1.2.2 A General Mathematical Model
			1.2.3 Alternative Models
			1.2.4 Model Parameterization
			1.2.5 Model Selection
			1.2.6 Model Validation
		1.3 Results
		1.4 Test of Predicted Future Dynamics
		1.5 Discussion
			1.5.1 Manageable Modeling for Management: Multiple Time-ScaleAnalysis
		References
	2 Predicting Haul-Out Behavior by Harbor Seals
		2.1 Introduction
		2.2 Methods
			2.2.1 Data Collection
			2.2.2 Modeling Assumptions
			2.2.3 Model
			2.2.4 Alternative Models, Parameterization, and Model Selection
			2.2.5 Goodness-of-Fit
		2.3 Results
		2.4 Discussion
		References
	3 Modeling Timing of Haulout and Foraging in Marine Iguanas
		3.1 Introduction
		3.2 Methods
			3.2.1 Data Collection
			3.2.2 Mathematical Model
			3.2.3 Model Parameterization
			3.2.4 Model Selection
			3.2.5 Model Validation
		3.3 Results
			3.3.1 Environmental Trends
			3.3.2 The Best Models
		3.4 Discussion
			3.4.1 Environmental Constraints on Foraging and Haul-Out
			3.4.2 Inferred Occupancies
			3.4.3 Predictive Model for Managers
			3.4.4 Conclusion
		References
	4 Simultaneous Modeling of Occupancy and Behavior Dynamics
		4.1 Introduction
		4.2 Modeling Approach
			4.2.1 Application to Colony Attendance and Sleep in Seabirds
		4.3 Methods
			4.3.1 Data Collection
			4.3.2 Submodels for rij
			4.3.3 Parameter Estimation
			4.3.4 Model Validation
		4.4 Results
			4.4.1 Best Model
			4.4.2 Parameter Estimates
			4.4.3 Model Validation
		4.5 Discussion
			4.5.1 The Model
			4.5.2 Demographic and Environmental Variability
			4.5.3 Deterministic and Stochastic Fluctuations in the Colony-SleepSystem
			4.5.4 Function
			4.5.5 Mathematical Models as Hypotheses
		4.6 Summary
		References
	5 Predicting Flightless Cormorant Behavior
		5.1 Introduction
		5.2 Methods
			5.2.1 Data Collection
			5.2.2 Smoothing of Tide-Height Observations
			5.2.3 Models
				Interpretation of Regression Coefficients
				Parameter Estimation
		5.3 Results
		5.4 Discussion
			5.4.1 Conclusion
		5.5 Appendix: Flightless Cormorant Responses to Environmental Factors
		References
	6 Coping Behavior as an Adaptation to Stress in Gulls
		6.1 Introduction
			6.1.1 Coping Behavior as an Evolutionary Adaptation to Stress
			6.1.2 Preening Behavior as a Function of Environmental Correlates
			6.1.3 Preening as a Hypothetical Coping Behavior Following EagleDisturbances
		6.2 General Modeling Framework
		6.3 Specification of the Logistic Regression Model for Preening in Gulls
			6.3.1 Data
			6.3.2 Regression Analysis
		6.4 Specification of Population Rates b( β)  and d( β)
			6.4.1 Specification of b(β)
			6.4.2 Specification of Density-Dependent Death Rate d(β)
		6.5 Some Preliminary Dynamics of the Darwinian Model
		6.6 Simulations of the Darwinian Model
		6.7 Empirical Test for Comfort Preening
		6.8 Discussion
		6.9 Conclusion
		References
II Reproductive Behavior and Population Dynamics
	7 Egg Cannibalism in Glaucous-Winged Gulls
		7.1 Introduction
		7.2 Methods
			7.2.1 Study Site and Data Collection
			7.2.2 Identification of Egg Predators
			7.2.3 Logistic Regression Analysis
			7.2.4 Model Validation
		7.3 Results
			7.3.1 Egg Fates
			7.3.2 AIC, Factor Importance, and Odds Ratios
			7.3.3 Model Validation
		7.4 Discussion
		References
	8 Egg-Laying Synchrony in Gulls
		8.1 Introduction
		8.2 Data
		8.3 Measuring Synchrony
		8.4 Null Model
		8.5 Process Model
		8.6 Model Predictions
			8.6.1 Null Model
			8.6.2 Process Model
		8.7 Results
			8.7.1 Null Model
			8.7.2 Process Model
			8.7.3 Test of Predictions N1 and P1
			8.7.4 Test of Predictions N2 and P2
		8.8 Concluding Remarks
			8.8.1 General Tenets
			8.8.2 Looking for Synchrony
			8.8.3 Possible Synchronizing Stimulus
		References
	9 Synchronized Egg-Laying as an Adaptive Response to Egg Cannibalism in Gulls
		9.1 Introduction
		9.2 Methods and Results
			9.2.1 Location and Sample Plots
			9.2.2 Nest Monitoring
			9.2.3 Identification of Causes of Egg Loss
			9.2.4 Measuring Local SST
			9.2.5 Test of Prediction 1: The Degree of Clutch-Initiation Synchrony Increases with SST
			9.2.6 Test of Prediction 2: The Length of the Clutch-Initiation Season Increases with SST
			9.2.7 Test of Prediction 3: The A-Egg in a Clutch Is More Likely to be Cannibalized than the B- or C-Egg
			9.2.8 Test of Prediction 4: The A-Egg in a Clutch Is Most Likely to be Cannibalized Within the First 24 Hours After It Is Laid
			9.2.9 Test of Prediction 5: The Odds That the A-Egg Is Cannibalized Within the First 24 Hours Decreases with Increasing Additional Clutches Initiated That Day
		9.3 Discussion
		References
	10 Predator-Prey Dynamics of Bald Eagles and Glaucous-Winged Gulls
		10.1 Introduction
		10.2 Mathematical Model
			10.2.1 Classic Lotka-Volterra Predator-Prey Model
			10.2.2 Eagle-Gull Predator-Prey Model
		10.3 Methods
			10.3.1 Gull Nest Counts from Violet Point, Protection Island
			10.3.2 Data on Occupied Eagle Territories in Washington State
			10.3.3 Counts of Nesting and Non-nesting Bald Eagles on Protection Island
			10.3.4 Use of Occupied Bald Eagle Territories in Washington as a Proxy for Eagles on Protection Island
			10.3.5 Model Parameterization
			10.3.6 Goodness-of-Fit
			10.3.7 Confidence Intervals for Parameters
		10.4 Results
		10.5 Discussion
		10.6 Conclusion
		References
III Models of Population Dynamics
	11 Models of Adult-on-Juvenile Cannibalism
		11.1 Introduction
		11.2 Juvenile-Adult Matrix Models
		11.3 A Model of Adult-on-Juvenile Cannibalism
		11.4 Cannibalism as an Evolutionarily Stable Strategy
			11.4.1 Darwinian Juvenile-Adult Matrix Models
			11.4.2 A Darwinian Model for Adult-on-Juvenile Cannibalism
		11.5 Conclusion
		11.6 Appendix
		References
	12 A Model of Cannibalism and Reproductive Synchrony
		12.1 Introduction
		12.2 The General Reproductive Synchrony Model
		12.3 A Model Study of Reproductive Synchrony
		12.4 A Cannibalism and Reproductive Synchrony Model
		12.5 Conclusion
		References
	13 An Across-Season Model
		13.1 Introduction
		13.2 A Seasonal Cannibalism and Reproductive Synchrony Model
		13.3 A Class of Periodic Matrix Models
		13.4 Analysis of the Seasonal Cannibalism and Reproductive Synchrony Model
		13.5 Conclusion
		References
Index