Mathematical Research for Blockchain Economy: 2nd International Conference MARBLE 2020, Vilamoura, Portugal

Preface
Contents
Smart Contract Derivatives
	1 Introduction
	2 Introspective SPV
	3 Concrete Instances
	References
Bitcoin Crypto–Bounties for Quantum Capable Adversaries
	1 Introduction
		1.1 Contributions
	2 Related Work
	3 Background
		3.1 Bitcoin Fundamentals
		3.2 Quantum Computing
	4 Context and Modelling
		4.1 Transitioning to Quantum Resistance
		4.2 Attack Vectors Considered
		4.3 Adversary Model
		4.4 Aggregating Vulnerable Outputs
	5 Crypto–Bounty Analysis
		5.1 Methodology
		5.2 Results and Discussion
	6 Conclusion
	References
An Econophysical Analysis of the Blockchain Ecosystem
	1 Introduction
	2 Econophysical Modelling
	3 Data Collection
		3.1 Mapping Exchanges to Bitcoin Addresses
		3.2 Mapping Exchanges to ERC-20 Tokens
		3.3 Exchanges
	4 Model Validation and Forecasting
	5 Analysis
		5.1 The Relationship Between On-Chain and Off-Chain Movements
		5.2 Do On-Chain Movements Affect Prices?
		5.3 Do Price and Trading Volume Affect the Flow of Tokens?
		5.4 Robustness Checks
	6 Conclusion
	References
Stress Testing Diversified Portfolios: The Case of the CoinShares Gold and Cryptoassets Index
	1 Introduction
	2 Background
		2.1 Index Methodology
		2.2 Stress Testing
	3 Multivariate Stress Testing
		3.1 Univariate Risk Factor Modelling
		3.2 Tail Behavior Estimates
		3.3 Dependence Concepts
		3.4 Scenario Plausibility
	4 Analysis and Results
		4.1 Index Replication and Risk Mapping
		4.2 Baseline Scenario Simulation
		4.3 Historical and Hypothetical Scenarios
	5 Conclusion
	References
Selfish Mining in Ethereum
	1 Introduction
		1.1 Selfish Mining Strategies in Ethereum
		1.2 Performance of Ethereum Selfish Mining Strategies
	2 A Combinatorics Approach
	3 Strategy 1: Maximum Belligerence Signalling All Uncles
		3.1 General Definitions and Basic Results
		3.2 Expected Number of Referred Uncles by Attack Cycle
		3.3 Expected Revenue of the Selfish Miner from Inclusion Rewards
		3.4 Apparent Hashrate of Strategy 1
		3.5 Expected Distance Between Uncles and Nephews by Attack Cycle
		3.6 Deflation
		3.7 Apparent Hashrate of the Honest Miners
	4 Strategy 2A: Brutal Fork Signaling All Uncles
		4.1 Apparent Hashrate of Strategy 2A
		4.2 Apparent Hashrate of the Honest Miners
	5 Strategy 2B: Brutal Fork Without Signaling Uncles
		5.1 Apparent Hashrate of Strategy 2B
		5.2 Apparent Hashrate of the Honest Miners
	6 Conclusions
		6.1 Random Walk
		6.2 Dyck Words
		6.3 Glossary
	References
The Speculative (In)Efficiency of the CME Bitcoin Futures Market
	1 Introduction
	2 Preliminaries
		2.1 The EMH
		2.2 The SEH
		2.3 Bitcoin Futures Markets
	3 Data and Methodology
		3.1 Methodology
		3.2 Data
	4 Results
	5 Conclusion
	References
Carbon Trading with Blockchain
	1 Introduction
	2 Background
		2.1 EU ETS
		2.2 Potential and Suitability of Blockchain
		2.3 Existing Work
	3 Proposal
		3.1 Taxonomy
		3.2 Tokens
		3.3 Processes
		3.4 Market Adjustment
		3.5 Carbon Bookkeeping on and off Blockchain
	4 Further Challenges and Considerations
	5 Conclusion
	References
Economic Games as Estimators
	1 Introduction
	2 Notation and Definitions
		2.1 Discrete Event Games
		2.2 Configuration Spaces
		2.3 Samples, Signals, and Estimation
	3 Bonding Curves as Price Estimators
		3.1 The Configuration Space
		3.2 Mechanisms
		3.3 Price Estimation
	4 Price Estimator Response Dynamics
		4.1 Experimental Apparatus
		4.2 Numerical Results
	5 Conclusions and Future Work
	References
Promise: Leveraging Future Gains for Collateral Reduction
	1 Introduction
	2 System Model
		2.1 Specifications
		2.2 Roles
		2.3 Assumptions
		2.4 Utilities
		2.5 Security
	3 Promise
		3.1 Protocol
		3.2 Sequential Games and Discounting
		3.3 Termination Probability
	4 Analysis
		4.1 Action Choices
		4.2 Security Proof
		4.3 Cost Reduction for Service Providers
		4.4 Cost Reduction for Users
	5 Applications
		5.1 XCLAIM
		5.2 NOCUST
		5.3 Implementation
	6 Related Work
	7 Conclusion
	References
Step on the Gas? A Better Approach for Recommending the Ethereum Gas Price
	1 Introduction
	2 Background
		2.1 Ethereum
		2.2 Gas Mechanism
	3 Empirical Analysis
	4 Methodology
		4.1 Gas Price Prediction
		4.2 Recommendation Algorithm
		4.3 Measuring Gas Recommendation Efficiency
	5 Results
		5.1 Model Training
		5.2 Evaluation
	6 Related Work
		6.1 Gas Mechanism
		6.2 Gas Price Oracles
	7 Conclusion
	References