Making Essential Choices with Scant Information: Front-End Decision Making in Major Projects

Front Matter....Pages i-xvi
Front Matter....Pages 1-1
Decisions Made on Scant Information: Overview....Pages 3-17
Projects, Their Quality at Entry and Challenges in the Front-end Phase....Pages 18-35
Front Matter....Pages 37-37
Implementing Strategy Through Project Management: The Importance of Managing the Project Front-end....Pages 39-67
Scenarios Planning....Pages 68-84
Up-Front Assessment of Needs....Pages 85-105
Front-end Alignment of Projects — Doing the Right Project....Pages 106-124
Using Soft Systems Methodology to Structure Project Definition....Pages 125-144
Front Matter....Pages 145-145
Optimism and Misrepresentation in Early Project Development....Pages 147-168
Decision Behaviour- Improving Expert Judgement....Pages 169-194
Useful Heuristics....Pages 195-212
Expert Judgement of Probability and Risk....Pages 213-229
Evaluation of Risks in Complex Problems....Pages 230-256
Obtaining Distributions from Groups for Decisions Under Uncertainty....Pages 257-276
Front Matter....Pages 277-277
Exploratory Quantitative Analysis of Emergent Problems with Scant Information....Pages 279-300
Analyzing Information. Techniques and Analyses....Pages 301-330
Parametric Analysis....Pages 331-350
Front Matter....Pages 351-351
The Impact of New Information....Pages 353-374
The Complexity of Decision-Making in Large Projects with Multiple Partners: Be Prepared to Change....Pages 375-389
Project Profitability from Society’s Point of View....Pages 390-412
Back Matter....Pages 413-417