Laws of Fear: Beyond the Precautionary Principle

Cover......Page 1
Half-title......Page 3
Series-title......Page 5
Title......Page 7
Copyright......Page 8
Dedication......Page 9
Contents......Page 11
Acknowledgments......Page 13
DELIBERATION AND THEORY......Page 15
PRECAUTIONS AND RATIONALITY......Page 17
THE PLAN......Page 19
APPROACHES AND POLICIES......Page 22
PART I Problems......Page 25
CHAPTER 1 Precautions and Paralysis......Page 27
THE PRECAUTIONARY PRINCIPLE......Page 29
WEAK AND STRONG......Page 32
PRECAUTION IN PRACTICE: A QUICK GLANCE AT EUROPE......Page 34
SAFE AND SORRY?......Page 37
WHY THE PRECAUTIONARY PRINCIPLE IS PARALYZING......Page 40
CHAPTER 2 Behind the Precautionary Principle......Page 49
THE AVAILABILITY HEURISTIC......Page 50
PROBABILITY NEGLECT......Page 53
LOSS AVERSION AND FAMILIARITY......Page 55
THE (MYTHICAL?) BENEVOLENCE OF NATURE......Page 58
SYSTEM NEGLECT......Page 59
REJOINDERS AND SALUTARY GOALS......Page 63
Distribution......Page 64
Biases......Page 65
Democracy......Page 68
Rights......Page 69
False negatives and false positives......Page 70
Balancing, risk aversion, and insurance: certain costs vs. uncertain benefits......Page 71
Irreversible losses, options, and two types of error......Page 72
Risk, uncertainty, and ignorance......Page 73
TOWARD WIDER VIEWSCREENS......Page 76
CHAPTER 3 Worst-Case Scenarios......Page 78
COGNITION......Page 79
EMOTION......Page 80
PROBABILITY NEGLECT: THE BASIC PHENOMENON......Page 84
SAFE OR UNSAFE? OF HRESHOLDS AND CERTAINTY......Page 87
A SIMPLE DEMONSTRATION......Page 90
A MORE COMPLEX DEMONSTRATION......Page 91
OTHER EVIDENCE......Page 93
PROBABILITY NEGLECT, "RIVAL RATIONALITY," AND DUAL PROCESSING......Page 99
NOTES ON THE MEDIA AND ON HETEROGENEITY......Page 101
SNIPERS......Page 103
CASCADES......Page 108
GROUP POLARIZATION......Page 112
Confidence breeds extremism......Page 114
Emotional contagion......Page 115
MEDIA, INTEREST GROUPS, AND POLITICIANS......Page 116
PREDISPOSITIONS......Page 118
PART II Solutions......Page 121
CATASTROPHE......Page 123
IRREVERSIBLE HARMS: AN AMBIVALENT NOTE......Page 129
MARGINS OF SAFETY......Page 131
THE ANALYTICS OF PRECAUTION......Page 133
MANAGING FEAR AND DISCLOSURE REQUIREMENTS......Page 136
HEIGHTENING FEAR?......Page 138
TECHNOCRATS AND POPULISTS......Page 140
CHAPTER 6 Costs and Benefits......Page 143
THE REAL WORLD OF COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS: WHAT AGENCIES DO AND WHY......Page 146
Data......Page 152
Practice and voluntariness......Page 155
PERSONS......Page 156
THEORY AND PRACTICE......Page 160
CHAPTER 7 Democracy, Rights, and Distribution......Page 163
EASY CASES......Page 164
OBJECTIONS......Page 167
Adaptive preferences, deprivation, and "miswanting"......Page 168
Inadequate information and bounded rationality......Page 169
Rights......Page 170
Democracy vs. markets......Page 172
Very low probabilities and catastrophic risks......Page 174
Third party effects......Page 175
Rich and poor......Page 176
Rich countries, poor countries......Page 177
Abstract values?......Page 178
VSL in poor countries......Page 179
HARDER CASES: DISTRIBUTION AND WELFARE......Page 180
HARDER CASES AS EASY ONES?......Page 183
GLOBAL WARMING......Page 185
OF SAVINGS AND CHOICES......Page 189
THE RATIONALITY OF CHOICES......Page 195
IS PATERNALISM INEVITABLE?......Page 198
Default rules......Page 201
Anchors......Page 204
Framing......Page 206
Inertia......Page 207
Ill-formed preferences......Page 208
THE INEVITABILITY OF PATERNALISM......Page 209
BEYOND THE INEVITABLE (BUT STILL LIBERTARIAN)......Page 210
Labor and employment law......Page 211
Consumer protection......Page 212
Generalizations......Page 213
OBJECTIONS......Page 215
WELFARE, CHOICE, AND FEAR......Page 217
CHAPTER 9 Fear and Liberty......Page 218
BAD BALANCING: A SIMPLE ACCOUNT......Page 220
WORSE BALANCING: SELECTIVE RESTRICTIONS......Page 221
TRADEOFF NEGLECT AND LIBERTY......Page 222
PROTECTING LIBERTY......Page 224
THE PRINCIPLE OF  CLEAR STATEMENT......Page 225
SPECIAL SCRUTINY OF  SELECTIVE DENIALS OF LIBERTY......Page 228
BALANCING AND SECOND-ORDER BALANCING......Page 231
FEAR AND FREEDOM......Page 236
A Concluding Note: Fear and Folly......Page 238
Index......Page 241