ITF Transport Outlook 2019

Editorial
Acknowledgements
Reader’s guide
Executive summary
	Background
	Findings
	Policy insights
		Better planning tools improve adaptability to uncertainties
		Transport policy must anticipate disruptions that originate outside the sector
		Transport systems will benefit from policy frameworks that foster innovation
		More ambitious policies are needed to stop the growth of transport CO2 emissions
Chapter 1.  How transport demand will change by 2050
	Increasing uncertainty about the drivers of transport demand
		A changing world demographic
		Slowing economic growth
		International trade faces uncertainties
		Uncertainty around oil prices
	Growing demand for passenger transport
		Changing urban mobility patterns
		Car-dominated growth of domestic non-urban transport
		Fast-growing international passenger aviation
	Freight transport growth faces uncertainties
		Maritime ships carry most of global freight
		Surface freight demand growth strong in Asia
		Aviation outpaces growth of other freight modes
	Notes
	References
Chapter 2.  Impact of transport policies on CO2 emissions to 2050
	The challenge of decarbonising transport
	Political ambition is critical for mitigating transport CO2 emissions
		More ambitious mitigation measures can cut emissions in urban areas
		Greater mitigation ambitions can attenuate expected increases in emissions from non-urban passenger transport
		More ambitious mitigation measures can largely avert projected increases in freight emissions
	Disruptive innovations will be needed in order to achieve decarbonisation targets in the transport sector
	Notes
	References
Chapter 3.  Disruptions in urban passenger transport
	The urban mobility landscape is rapidly changing
	The mitigation potential of urban transport policies
		The current ambition scenario for urban passenger transport
		The high ambition scenario for urban passenger transport
		Urban mobility by region
		Local pollutants
	Disruption through telework
		What drives the decision to telework?
		How does teleworking change travel behaviour?
		Simulation results
	Massive shared mobility
		Why do people choose shared mobility?
		What are the implications of shared mobility use for urban transport?
		Simulation results
	Autonomous vehicles
		What makes people choose to use autonomous vehicles?
		What impacts do autonomous vehicles have on urban transport?
		Simulation results
	Disruptive scenarios for urban passenger transport
	Notes
	References
Chapter 4.  Disruptions in non-urban passenger transport
	Demand for non-urban passenger transport set to rise sharply
	The mitigation potential of transport policies for non-urban passenger travel
		Today’s policies will not decouple demand for non-urban transport from emissions
		A reduction of CO2 emissions from non-urban passenger transport is possible
	Ultra-high-speed rail
		What promotes the development of ultra-high-speed rail systems?
		What impacts would ultra-high-speed rail systems have on passenger transport?
		Simulation results
	Long-haul low-cost aviation
		What promotes the expansion of long-haul-low cost carriers?
		What are the impacts of long-haul low-cost aviation on air travel?
		Simulation results
	Alternative aviation fuels
		What encourages the uptake of alternative energy sources in aviation?
		What are the impacts of alternative fuels on the aviation sector?
		Simulation results
	Three disruptive scenarios for non-urban passenger transport
	Notes
	References
Chapter 5.  Disruptions in freight transport
	Strong growth expected in freight transport amid high uncertainty
	The mitigation potential of known freight transport policies and measures
	E-commerce
		What drives the development of e-commerce?
		What are the implications of e-commerce for the transport sector?
		E-commerce increases transport volumes and emissions
	3D printing
		What drives the uptake of 3D printing?
		What are the potential impacts of 3D printing on transport?
		Mass adoption of 3D printing could significantly reduce international freight volumes
	New international trade routes
		What could drive changes in international trade routes?
		What are the implications of trade route changes for international freight transport?
		New trade routes will not affect emissions significantly, but can change the face of transport networks
	Energy transition for long-distance road freight
		What drives the transition to renewable energy in long distance road freight?
		What are the impacts of transitioning to alternative fuels in long-distance road freight?
		Energy transition for long-distance road freight is necessary to decarbonise road freight
	Autonomous Trucks
		What drives the uptake of autonomous trucks?
		What are the implications of autonomous trucks use for transport systems?
		Autonomous trucks have moderate impacts on emissions
	High capacity vehicles
		What facilitates the proliferation of high capacity vehicles for road freight?
		What are the impacts of high capacity vehicles on road freight transport?
		High capacity vehicles have moderate impacts in emissions and modal shift
	Disruptive scenarios in freight transport
	Notes
	References
Statistical annex