Introduction to Modern Climate Change

Introduction to Modern Climate Change......Page 2
Advance Praise for Introduction to Modern Climate Change......Page 3
Title\n......Page 4
Copyright\n......Page 5
Contents......Page 8
Preface......Page 10
Acknowledgments......Page 14
1.1 What is climate?......Page 16
1.2 What is climate change?......Page 19
1.3 A coordinate system for the Earth......Page 20
1.4 Why you should believe this textbook......Page 22
Additional reading......Page 28
Problems......Page 29
2 Is the climate changing?......Page 31
2.1.1 Surface thermometer record......Page 32
2.1.2 Satellite measurements of temperature......Page 34
2.1.3 Ice......Page 35
2.1.3.2 Sea ice......Page 36
2.1.3.3 Ice sheets......Page 37
2.1.5 Sea level......Page 38
2.1.6 Putting it all together: Is today\'s climate changing?......Page 40
2.2.1 Paleoproxies......Page 41
2.2.2 The Earth\'s long-term climate record......Page 42
2.3 Chapter summary......Page 46
Problems......Page 47
3.1 Temperature and energy......Page 49
3.2 Electromagnetic radiation......Page 50
3.3 Blackbody radiation......Page 52
3.4 Energy balance......Page 57
3.5 Chapter summary......Page 59
Terms......Page 60
Problems......Page 61
4.1 The source of energy for our climate system......Page 63
4.2 Energy loss to space......Page 67
4.3.1 One-layer model......Page 68
4.3.2 Two-layer model......Page 69
4.3.3 n-layer model......Page 70
4.4 Testing our theory with other planets......Page 72
4.5 Chapter summary......Page 73
Problems......Page 74
5.1 Greenhouse gases and our atmosphere\'s composition......Page 77
5.2.1 Atmosphere–land biosphere exchange......Page 79
5.2.2 Atmosphere–ocean carbon exchange......Page 81
5.2.3 The combined atmosphere–land biosphere–ocean system......Page 82
5.3 Atmosphere–rock exchange......Page 84
5.4 How are humans perturbing the carbon cycle?......Page 86
5.5 Some commonly asked questions about the carbon cycle......Page 90
5.6 Methane......Page 92
5.7 Chapter summary......Page 94
Terms......Page 95
Problems......Page 96
6.1 Time lags in the climate system......Page 97
6.2 Radiative forcing......Page 99
6.2.1 Trace gases......Page 101
6.2.2 Aerosols......Page 102
6.2.3 Land-use changes......Page 106
6.2.4 Changes in the Sun......Page 107
6.3 Feedbacks......Page 108
6.3.1 Fast feedbacks......Page 110
6.3.2 Slow feedbacks......Page 111
6.4.1 Feedback math......Page 113
6.4.2 Sensitivity......Page 114
6.5 Chapter summary......Page 115
Problems......Page 116
7.1 The first suspect: Movement of the continents......Page 118
7.2 The Sun......Page 119
7.3 The Earth\'s orbit......Page 120
7.4 Internal variability......Page 122
7.5 Greenhouse gases......Page 124
7.6 Putting it all together......Page 129
Problems......Page 135
8.1 The factors that control emissions......Page 137
8.2.2 Affluence......Page 140
8.3.1 Population......Page 141
8.4 Emissions scenarios......Page 142
Summary of scenario families......Page 143
8.5 Predictions of future atmospheric composition......Page 145
8.6.1 Over the next century......Page 146
8.6.2 Climate change beyond 2100......Page 148
8.7 Is the climate predictable?......Page 150
Additional reading......Page 152
9.1 Why should you care about climate change?......Page 155
9.2 Temperature......Page 158
9.3 Precipitation......Page 159
9.4 Sea-level rise and ocean acidification......Page 162
9.5 Impacts of these changes......Page 163
9.6 Abrupt climate changes......Page 168
9.7 Chapter summary......Page 169
Additional reading......Page 170
Problems......Page 171
10.1 What is exponential growth?......Page 172
10.2 The rule of 72......Page 173
10.3 Limits to exponential growth......Page 174
10.4.1 The time value of money......Page 179
10.4.2 The discount rate......Page 180
10.5 Chapter summary......Page 181
Problems......Page 182
11.1 Adaptation......Page 184
11.2 Mitigation......Page 188
11.2.1 Technologies to reduce carbon intensity......Page 191
11.2.2 Policies to reduce carbon emissions......Page 195
11.3 Geoengineering......Page 197
Additional reading......Page 201
Problems......Page 202
12.1 Conventional regulations......Page 204
12.2.1 Carbon tax......Page 205
12.2.2 Cap and trade......Page 208
12.2.3 Carbon tax versus cap and trade......Page 210
12.2.4 Offsets......Page 211
12.3 Information and voluntary methods......Page 213
Additional reading......Page 214
Problems......Page 215
13.1 The beginning of climate science......Page 217
13.2 The emergence of environmentalism......Page 219
13.3 The 1970s and 1980s: supersonic airliners, acid rain, and ozone depletion......Page 221
13.4 The year everything changed: 1988......Page 225
13.5 The Framework Convention on Climate Change: The first climate treaty......Page 227
13.6 The Kyoto Protocol......Page 228
13.7 The Bush years......Page 229
13.8 Copenhagen......Page 231
Terms......Page 232
Problems......Page 233
14.1 Decisions under uncertainty: Should we reduce emissions?......Page 235
14.2.1 Cost versus benefits......Page 238
14.2.2 Target: 2°C......Page 241
14.3.1 The physics of a 2°C limit......Page 242
14.3.2 How to get there......Page 243
14.4 A few final thoughts......Page 246
Problems......Page 247
References......Page 250
Index......Page 254
color plates......Page 130