Introduction to Modeling in Wildlife and Resource Conservation

Introduction to Modeling in Wildlife and
Resource Conservation......Page 2
Preface......Page 12
1.1 Introduction......Page 14
1.2 Structure of the book......Page 18
1.3 Supporting computer software......Page 20
Recommended supporting reading......Page 21
Supporting file on the CD
......Page 22
2.2 Conservation of the dodo......Page 23
3.1 Introduction......Page 28
3.2 Dynamic equations......Page 30
3.3 Geometric and exponential growth......Page 32
3.4 Adding a population ceiling......Page 35
3.5 Basic density-dependent models......Page 37
3.6 Curvilinear density dependence......Page 43
3.7 Delayed density dependence......Page 48
3.8 Depensation or Allee effect......Page 49
3.9 Incorporating environmental variability......Page 50
3.10 Overview......Page 53
Recommended supporting reading......Page 54
Exercises......Page 56
4.1 Introduction......Page 57
4.2 Age-structured models......Page 59
4.3 Stage-structured models......Page 66
4.5 Overview......Page 69
Exercises......Page 70
5.1 Introduction......Page 72
5.2 Coupling population equations......Page 73
5.3 Simple interactive model......Page 74
5.4 Incorporating competitive interference......Page 81
5.6 Accommodating environmental variability......Page 83
Recommended supporting reading......Page 86
Exercises......Page 87
6.1 Introduction......Page 88
6.2 Adding density dependence to an age-structured
model......Page 90
6.3 A specific example: the kudu model......Page 96
6.4 Simplification for management......Page 109
6.6 Overview......Page 111
Exercises......Page 112
7.1 Introduction......Page 114
7.2 Principles of “maximum sustained yield”......Page 116
7.3 Surplus production model accommodating
environmental variability......Page 119
7.4 Stock-recruitment model......Page 122
7.5 Policies for setting the harvest quota......Page 125
7.6 Adaptive management responses......Page 126
7.7 Stock-recruitment models for fish populations......Page 127
7.8 Overview......Page 132
Exercises......Page 133
8.1 Introduction......Page 135
8.2 Demographic stochasticity......Page 137
8.3 Environmental variability and catastrophes......Page 138
8.5 Population viability models......Page 139
8.6 Overview......Page 148
Recommended supporting reading......Page 149
Exercises......Page 150
9.1 Introduction......Page 151
9.2 Basic patch incidence model......Page 153
9.3 Correlated migration and extinction......Page 155
9.4 Variable patch size and spacing......Page 156
9.6 Mainland–island habitats......Page 158
9.7 Examples of vertebrate metapopulations......Page 159
Exercises......Page 160
10.1 Introduction......Page 161
10.2 Basic infection model......Page 162
10.3 Cyclic outbreak dynamics: measles......Page 164
10.4 Slowly spreading sexually transmitted disease: HIV–AIDS......Page 168
10.5 Controlling the spread of wildlife diseases......Page 172
Recommended supporting reading......Page 175
Exercises......Page 176
11.1 Introduction......Page 177
11.2 Background situation......Page 179
11.3 Theoretical concepts......Page 180
11.4 Modeling the white rhino–grassland system......Page 182
11.5 Exploring management options......Page 191
11.6 Overview......Page 193
Exercises......Page 194
12.1 Introduction......Page 195
12.2 Seasonal biomass dynamics of vegetation
supporting herbivores......Page 196
12.3 Size-structured dynamics of a tree population......Page 201
12.4 Gap dynamics model......Page 207
12.5 Overview......Page 211
Exercises......Page 212
13.1 Introduction......Page 213
13.2 Vegetation successional dynamics......Page 215
13.3 Managing savanna vegetation for livestock......Page 219
13.4 Spatially explicit grid model......Page 223
Recommended supporting reading......Page 225
Exercises......Page 226
14.1 Introduction......Page 227
14.2 Shifting habitat use by overwintering geese......Page 229
14.3 Habitat suitability for a browsing antelope from
vegetation composition......Page 233
14.4 General principles......Page 238
Exercises......Page 240
15.1 Introduction......Page 241
15.2 Model selection statistics......Page 243
15.3 Diagnosing the causes of antelope population
declines......Page 244
15.4 Overview......Page 259
Exercise......Page 260
Appendix 2.1 Guidelines for the dodo population model......Page 261
Appendix 2.2 Assumptions that you might have made......Page 262
Appendix 2.3 Overview of what you should have learned......Page 263
Appendix 3.1 Exponential growth model formulated in a
spreadsheet......Page 264
Appendix 3.3 Formulating the logistic model in a spreadsheet......Page 266
Appendix 3.4 Guidelines for developing a spreadsheet
model for a set of descriptive equations......Page 267
Appendix 4.1 Formulating an elementary age-structured
population model in a spreadsheet......Page 268
Appendix 4.2 Formulating a stage-structured model for a sea
turtle population in a spreadsheet......Page 270
Appendix 5.1 A simple interactive model for a herbivore–vegetation system......Page 272
Appendix 5.2 Incorporating a saturating functional response......Page 273
Appendix 5.4 Allowing for environmental variability......Page 275
Appendix 5.5 Modeling the optimal stocking level for a
livestock ranch......Page 276
Appendix 6.1 Formulating an age-structured population model
incorporating density dependence......Page 278
Appendix 6.2 Incorporating environmental variability into the
age-structured model......Page 281
Appendix 7.1 Harvesting model based on the logistic equation
in a constant environment......Page 282
Appendix 7.2 Harvesting model for a goose population
accommodating environmental variability......Page 283
Appendix 7.3 Simple dynamic pool model for fish harvesting......Page 285
Appendix 7.4 Dynamic pool model for a long-lived fish with
several recruitment stages......Page 289
Appendix 8.1 Demographic stochasticity in a spreadsheet......Page 290
Appendix 9.1 Basic spreadsheet model for metapopulation
dynamics......Page 292
Appendix 9.2 Model representing correlated migration and
extinction......Page 295
Appendix 9.3 Model representing variable patch size
and spacing......Page 296
Appendix 9.4 Model representing source and sink
populations......Page 297
Appendix 10.1 Modeling the outbreak dynamics of a transient
infection: measles......Page 298
Appendix 10.2 Modeling the dynamics of a sexually transmitted disease: HIV–AIDS......Page 300
Appendix 11.1 Modeling the white rhino–grassland interaction in a spreadsheet......Page 302
Appendix 12.1 Formulating a model of the seasonal biomass
dynamics of a grass forage resource under
grazing......Page 307
Appendix 12.2 Spreadsheet model for harvesting a tropical
hardwood forest......Page 311
Appendix 13.1 Formulating a Markovian transition model for
vegetation succession......Page 314
Appendix 13.2 Savanna management model......Page 316
Appendix 14.1 Habitat occupation model for overwintering
geese......Page 321
References......Page 327
Index......Page 342