Internet Use and Protest in Malaysia and other Authoritarian Regimes: Challenging Information Scarcity

Acknowledgements
Contents
List of Figures
List of Tables
1 Introduction
	Information Scarcity Under Authoritarian Rule
	Cyberoptimists Versus Cyberpessimists
	Against Technological and Social Determinism and Internet-Centrism
	Asking Smaller Questions: Protest not Democratization
	What Is Missing?
	Question One: Does Internet Use Facilitate Anti-Government Protest Under Authoritarian Regimes?
	Question Two: How and Under What Conditions Does Internet Use Facilitate Anti-Government Protest?
	Main Argument
	A Mixed Methods Research Design
	Why Malaysia?
	Plan of the Book
	Bibliography
2 The Mobilization Chain Under Authoritarian Rule
	The Mobilization Chain
		Step 1: Becoming Sympathetic Towards an Anti-Government Protest Movement
		Step 2: Being Informed About an Anti-Government Protest
		Step 3: Being Motivated to Join an Anti-Government Protest
	Under What Conditions Does Internet Use Facilitate Anti-Government Protest?
		State Repression
		Social Media
	Conclusion
	Bibliography
3 The Direct Effect of Internet Use on Anti-Government Protest
	Country-Level Analysis
		Research Design
			Dependent Variables
			Independent Variable
			Interaction Variables
			Control Variables
		Estimation Technique
		Results
		Summarizing the Country-Level Analysis
	Individual-Level Analysis
		Research Design
			Dependent Variable
			Independent Variable
			Interaction Variable
			Control Variables
		Estimation Technique
		Results
		Summarizing the Individual-Level Analysis
	Conclusion
	References
4 Step 1: Internet Use and Sympathizing with an Anti-Government Protest Movement
	BN’s Strict Control Over the Traditional Media
	The Internet: A Vehicle for Economic Development
	Increasing Attempts to Control Cyberspace
	Why the Malaysian Information Controls Remained Asymmetric
		Domestic and International Constraints
		Socio-Technical Obstacles for Online Repression
		Lack of Effectiveness
	The Consequences of Malaysia’s Asymmetry in Information Controls
		Consequences for Anti-Regime Sentiment—Quantitative Evidence
		Consequences for Sympathy for Anti-Government Protest Movements—Quantitative Evidence
		Consequences for Anti-Regime Sentiment and Sympathy for Anti-Government Protest Movements—Qualitative Evidence
		The Endurance of the Asymmetry in Information Controls
		Social Media
	Conclusion
	References
5 Step 2: Internet Use and the Informing of Protest Sympathizers
	Informing Sympathizers in Four Protest Waves
		The Reformasi Protests (1998–1999)
		Bersih one (2007)
		Bersih two and three (2011 and 2012)
		Bersih four (2015)
	Has Internet Use Facilitated the Informing of Protest Sympathizers?
		1st Reformasi Period (Sept–Oct 1998): Leaderless ‘Shopping’
		2nd Reformasi Period (November 1998–1999): Leaders Stand up, Handbills and Pamphlets Are Key
		Bersih One (2007): Opposition Parties Inform Through Traditional Methods
		Bersih Two (2011) and Three (2012): The Importance of Social Media
		Bersih Four (2015): Continuing Reliance on Social Media, but also ‘Back’ to One-to-Many Channels
	Why Did State Repression not Hamper Social Media’s Success in Informing Protest Sympathizers?
		The Damaging Effect of Repression in the Age of Social Media
		Government Blunders in Cyberspace
		Socio-Technical Obstacles for Online Repression
		Mild Offline Repression
	Conclusion
	References
6 Step 3: Internet Use and Being Motivated to Join an Anti-Government Protest
	Mechanism 1: Internet Use and the Perceived Risks of Protesting
	Safety in Numbers
	The World Is Watching
	Mechanism 2: Conducive Social Media Networks
	Mechanism 3: Internet Use and Dramatic (Audio-)Visual Material
	Investigating the Role of Internet Use in the Motivation of Informed Sympathizers
	Examining Mechanism 1: ‘I Knew that the Streets Would Be Flocked’
	Examining Mechanism 2: ‘You Want to Post You Went for the Rally’
	Examining Mechanism 3: ‘Once You’re Exposed to the System Long Enough, You Make Your Own Decisions’
	Conclusion
	References
7 Scaling Up the Malaysian Findings
	Scaling up the Malaysian Findings on Becoming a Protest Sympathizer
		What Other Researchers Have Found
		Research Design
		Estimation Technique
		Results
		Conclusion and Discussion
		Authoritarian States Cannot Control Cyberspace Strictly
		Authoritarian States Do Not Want To Control Cyberspace Strictly
		Authoritarian Regimes that the Findings Are Unlikely to Apply to
		The Counterintuitive Effects of Online Repression and the Asymmetry in Information Controls
	Scaling up the Malaysian Findings on Informing Protest Sympathizers
		People Do not Dare to Share
		Are Protest Movements Trustworthy and Credible?
		Shutting Down or Regulating Social Media Platforms
	Scaling up the Malaysian Findings on Being Motivated to Join a Protest
		Internet and the Perceived Risks of Protesting
		Conducive Social Media Networks
		Internet Use and Dramatic (Audio)Visual Content
	References
8 Conclusions and Reflections
	Implications of the Findings for Authoritarian Sustainability
		Internet-Enabled Protests Do not Equal Regime Crisis
		And Yet It Can Be Threatening for the Regime
	Policy Implications
	References
Appendix
Fieldwork Methodology
List of Interviewees
How I Interviewed My Respondents
Interviewing Informed Sympathizers
Interviewing Government Officials
Interviews in English
Anonymization Policy
Data Protection
Chapter 3: The Direct Effect of Internet Use on Anti-government Protest
A1: Control Variables (Country Level)
A2: Auth. Regimes with Some Limited Freedoms That Were Part of the Sample (FH: 5.5)
A3: Auth. Regimes with the Least Freedom That Were Part of the Sample (FH:6–7)
A4: Comparing Regimes with Varying Degrees of Freedom
A5: Internet Use and Anti-government Protest with Online Repression
A6: Control Variables (Individual Level)
Chapter 4: Step 1: Internet Use and Sympathizing with an Anti-government Protest Movement
B1: Asian Barometer Data (2007 and 2011)
B2: Internet Use and Anti-regime Sentiment with WVS Data (2006 and 2011)
B3: Merdeka Research Center
B4: Merdeka Research Center: Bersih Four and Five Data (2015 and 2016)
Chapter 6: Step 3: Internet Use and Being Motivated to Join an Anti-Government Protest
Table C1: Idea about the Expected Turnout and Attending Bersih Five
Table C2: Talking with Friends and Family and Attending Bersih Five
Table C3: Seeing Social Media Support for Bersih and Attending Bersih
Chapter 7: Scaling up the Malaysian Findings
Table D1: Descriptive Statistics
Table D2: Robust. Checks for Table 7.2
Table D3: Robust. Checks for Table 7.3
Table D4: Robust. Checks for Table 7.4
Table D5: Comparing Regimes with Varying Degrees of Freedom
Bibliography
Index