Integrated Research on Disaster Risks: Contributions from the IRDR Young Scientists Programme (Disaster Risk Reduction)

Contents
1 Introduction: IRDR Young Scientists—Analysis of Researchers and Key Research Topics
	1.1 Introduction
	1.2 Structure of the Book and Summary of Book Chapters
	1.3 A Description of the Intended Readership/Users
Part I Characterisation of Hazard, Vulnerability, and Risk
2 Application of a Machine Learning Technique for Developing Short-Term Flood and Drought Forecasting Models in Tropical Mountainous Catchments
	2.1 Introduction
	2.2 Study Sites and Dataset
	2.3 Methodology
		2.3.1 Random Forest
		2.3.2 Algorithm
		2.3.3 RF Hyper-Parameterization
		2.3.4 Runoff Forecasting Model Construction
		2.3.5 Runoff Forecasting Model Assessment and Feature Reduction
		2.3.6 Goodness-Of-Fit Statistics
	2.4 Graphical Techniques
		2.4.1 Feature Reduction
	2.5 Results and Discussions
		2.5.1 Evaluation of Flood Forecasts
		2.5.2 Evaluation of Drought Forecasts
	2.6 Conclusions
	References
3 Increasing Trends in Tropical Cyclone Induced Surge Impacts Over North Indian Ocean
	3.1 Introduction
	3.2 Data and Methodology
		3.2.1 Data Sources
	3.3 The JMA-MRI Storm Surge Model
	3.4 Model Validation
	3.5 Results
		3.5.1 Past and Future Trends of TC Genesis and Tracks
	3.6 Past and Future Trends of Maximum Surge Height
	3.7 Past and Future Spatial Variations in Surge Height
	3.8 Discussion and Conclusion
	References
4 Classifying the Forest Surfaces in Metropolitan Areas by Their Wildfire Ignition Probability and Spreading Capacity in Support of Forest Fire Risk Reduction
	4.1 Introduction
	4.2 Methods
		4.2.1 Study Area
		4.2.2 Procedure of Data Analysis
	4.3 Results and Discussions
		4.3.1 Multi-criteria Inventory for Measuring Exposure and Vulnerability of Forest Surfaces Toward Wildfires
		4.3.2 Calculation and Mapping of WIPI and WSCI Values
	4.4 Conclusions and Recommendations
	References
5 An Overview of the Integrated Flood Analysis System (IFAS) Studies in Insufficiently Gauged Catchments: Approaches, Challenges, and Prospects
	5.1 Introduction
	5.2 Integrated Flood Analysis System (IFAS)
		5.2.1 Model Structures
		5.2.2 Runoff Simulation
		5.2.3 Interface Display of Simulation Results
	5.3 Case Studies of IFAS Applications
	5.4 Challenges and Prospects
	5.5 Conclusions
	References
6 Heat Vulnerability Index Development and Application in Medan City, Indonesia
	6.1 Introduction
		6.1.1 Increasing Heat Stress and Its Health Effects
	6.2 Approaches to Measure Heat Stress and Vulnerability
	6.3 Study Objectives
	6.4 Methods
		6.4.1 Study Area
	6.5 Vulnerability Data Sources
	6.6 Heat Stress Index
	6.7 Urban Heat Island
	6.8 Vegetation and Building Coverage
	6.9 Land Surface Temperature
	6.10 Electricity and Gas Emission
	6.11 Sensitivity to Heat
	6.12 Heat Vulnerability Index
	6.13 Spatial Data Processing
	6.14 Results
		6.14.1 Heat Stress Level in Medan City
	6.15 Land Surface Temperature and Urban Heat Island in Medan City
	6.16 Heat Vulnerability Map
	6.17 Discussion
	6.18 Recommendations
	6.19 Conclusion
	Appendix 1: Energy Consumption in Non-Residential Building (MJ/m2/year)
	Appendix 2: Energy Consumption Per Residential Building (MJ/year)
	Appendix 3: Anthropogenic Resources of Heat
	Appendix 4: Heat Vulnerability Index Map
	References
7 Comparative GIS-Based Assessment of Landslide Susceptibility of Chepe River Corridor, Gandaki River Basin, Nepal
	7.1 Introduction
	7.2 General Description of Chepe River Corridor
	7.3 Methodology
	7.4 Landslide Susceptibility Modeling
	7.5 Bivariate Statistical Index Model (SIM)
	7.6 Landslide Susceptibility Index (LSI)
	7.7 Multi-variate Logistic Regression Model (LRM)
	7.8 Landslide Susceptibility Index Classification
	7.9 Landslide Susceptibility Model Validation and Comparison
	7.10 Results and Discussion
		7.10.1 Landslide Mapping
	7.11 Landslide Susceptibility Index (LSI) from Statistical Index Model
	7.12 Landslide Susceptibility Index (LSI) from Multi-variate Logistic Regression Model
	7.13 Comparing LSI from Both: Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC)
	7.14 Conclusion
	References
8 Level of Disaster Resilience and Migration Patterns in Japanese and Foreign Residents
	8.1 Introduction
	8.2 Method
		8.2.1 Data Sources
		8.2.2 Resilience Capacity Index in Japan
		8.2.3 Migration Data of Japanese and Foreign Population
		8.2.4 Municipalities Severely Affected by Earthquakes
		8.2.5 Other Control Variables
		8.2.6 Data Analysis: Empirical Strategy
	8.3 Results
		8.3.1 Level of Resilience Capacity Index in Japan
		8.3.2 Pattern of Migration and Level of Resilience
	8.4 Discussion and Conclusion
	Appendix: Ranking of Municipalities Based on the Resilience Capacity Index
	References
Part II Governance and Management of Disaster Risks
9 Understanding Social-Mediated Disaster and Risk Communication with Topic Model
	9.1 Introduction
	9.2 Disaster and Risk Communication
		9.2.1 Crisis and Emergency Risk Communication Model
		9.2.2 Disaster and Risk Communication on Social Media
	9.3 Topic Modeling and Social-Mediated Disaster and Risk Research
		9.3.1 Introduction of Topic Model
		9.3.2 Applying Topic Model Analysis in Disaster and Risk Communication
	9.4 Case Study of Hurricane Maria Recovery Stage
		9.4.1 Data Collection
		9.4.2 Data Analyses
	9.5 Results
	9.6 Discussion
		9.6.1 Implications
		9.6.2 Future Directions
	9.7 Conclusions
	References
10 Preparation and Adoption of Risk Sensitive Land Use Plans in the New Federal Context of Nepal
	10.1 Introduction
		10.1.1 Overview of Disaster Risk in Urban Municipalities
		10.1.2 Urbanization in the New Federal Structure
		10.1.3 Overview of Risk Sensitive Land Use Planning and Its Implications to the New Federal Structure
	10.2 Methodology
	10.3 History of RSLUP in Nepal
	10.4 RSLUP for Kathmandu Valley
		10.4.1 2002 Seismic Risk Assessment in Kathmandu Valley GIZ, EMI, Kathmandu Valley, 2010
		10.4.2 RSLUP of Kathmandu Valley UNDP 2015–2016, Kathmandu Valley
		10.4.3 Assessment of Earthquake Disaster Risk for the Kathmandu Valley in Nepal, 2018
		10.4.4 RSLUP of Changunarayan Municipality
	10.5 RSLUP of Municipalities Outside of Kathmandu Valley
		10.5.1 Batch of Five Municipalities Supported by UNDP/BCPR
		10.5.2 Risk Sensitive Land Use Plan of Chautara Municipality, 2016
	10.6 Ongoing Federal and Local Level Initiatives
		10.6.1 Resettlement of High-Risk Communities
		10.6.2 New Town Development Projects by KVDA
		10.6.3 Integrated Urban Development Plan (IUDP)
		10.6.4 Smart Cities
		10.6.5 Classification of Land
		10.6.6 Interaction with Mayors and Deputy Mayors
	10.7 Implementation of RSLUP
	10.8 Application of RSLUP in Selected Municipality and Key Learning
11 Counting Down to Day Zero: Exploring Community-Based Water Management Strategies in Western Cape Province Drought, South Africa (2017/2018)
	11.1 Introduction
	11.2 Contextualizing the Western Cape Drought Within the International Disaster Risk Reduction Governance Framework
	11.3 Conceptual Framework
	11.4 Methodological Approach
	11.5 Results
		11.5.1 Drought-Instigated Community-Based Water Management Strategies in Western Cape
		11.5.2 Challenges in Implementing Community-Based Water Management Strategies
		11.5.3 Stakeholder Perceptions on the Effectiveness of Community-Based Water Management Strategies
	11.6 Conclusions and Recommendations
	References
Part III Emerging Topics in IRDR: Post-disaster Recovery, Public Health, Role of Young Scientists, Gender
12 Climate Change Adaptation Strategies in Primary Health Care
	12.1 Health and the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR) 2015–2030
	12.2 Climate Change and Health in Indonesia
	12.3 Methodology
	12.4 Results: Urban Vulnerability in the Context of Climate Change
	12.5 Experiences with Floods
	12.6 Water Scarcity, Waterborne Diseases, and Water-Related Vector
	12.7 Primary Health Care Adaptation Strategies
	12.8 Conclusion
	References
13 Capacity-Building Strategy for Creating Disaster- and Climate-Risk-Sensitive Development Plans—A Case Study of Multi-Stakeholder Engagement in  Sri Lanka
	13.1 Introduction
	13.2 Literature Review
	13.3 Community Resilience in the Context of Disaster Risk Management
		13.3.1 Disaster Risk Management—A Brief Historical Overview in Sri Lanka
		13.3.2 Community-Based Disaster Risk Management (CBDRM)
		13.3.3 Key Lessons and Challenges in CBDRM Approach in Sri Lanka
		13.3.4 Concept of Community Resilience and Risk-Sensitive Development
	13.4 Method
		13.4.1 Process of Operationalising Community Resilience Framework (CRF)—Sri Lanka
	13.5 Results and Discussion
		13.5.1 Training Strategy of CRF Trainers and Facilitators
		13.5.2 Community Resilience Framework Training Process
	13.6 Concluding Remarks and Recommendations
	References
14 Leveraging Youth Engagement in Disaster Risk Reduction Through Science, Engineering, Technology, and Innovation in Indonesia
	14.1 Background: Literature Review on Youth and Disaster Risk Reduction
	14.2 Objectives
	14.3 Methodology: Data Collection and Analysis
	14.4 Indonesia: Home to Disasters, Home of the Youth
	14.5 Indonesian Youth Engagement in DRR: Evidence from the Field
		14.5.1 Youth-Related Organizations
		14.5.2 Youth-Related Events and Initiatives
		14.5.3 Indonesian Youth During the 3rd UN World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction
		14.5.4 U-INSPIRE Roles in Leveraging SETI for DRR in Indonesia
		14.5.5 National Policies on DRR and Youth
	14.6 Discussion
		14.6.1 Youth as Agents of Risk Communication and Disaster Risk Reduction
		14.6.2 Youth Engagement in DRR: Does Indonesian Institutional Setup Provides Room for Engagement?
		14.6.3 Science, Engineering, Technology, and Innovation (SETI) as the Medium for Country Resilience Building
	14.7 A Conceptual Framework of Effective Partnership with Indonesian Youth in DRR
	14.8 Effective Youth Engagement in Fulfilling the Targets of SFDRR 2015–2030
	14.9 Conclusions
	References
15 Understanding Gender Dimensions of Disaster Impacts on Agriculture in the Global South
	15.1 Introduction
	15.2 Review of Literature: Disasters, Climate Change and Gender
	15.3 Theoretical Framework: Gender Risk and Vulnerability
	15.4 Agricultural Impacts from Climatic Disasters: Understanding Gender Dimensions in Southern African and the Asia Pacific Countries
	15.5 Mainstreaming Gender into Adaptation Programmes and Measures
	15.6 Conclusions
	References
16 Inclusive Resilience: Incorporating the Indigenous into the Picture of Resilient Reconstruction
	16.1 The Traditional Housing Structures of Navala Village, Fiji
	16.2 Cyclone Winston and Its Impacts
	16.3 Introduction: The Need for Preserving Heritage Structures Amid Disaster Reconstruction
	16.4 Methodology
	16.5 Navala after Cyclone Winston
	16.6 Challenges to Rebuilding Bure Houses
		16.6.1 Reconciling Views on Resilient Housing
		16.6.2 Recognition in the Building Code
		16.6.3 Regard for Informal Practices in Government Policies and Programmes
	16.7 Prospects
		16.7.1 Recommendations
		16.7.2 Self-build and Post-disaster Recovery
	References
17 Adapting to Climate Change by Building Back Better in Disaster Recovery: Case Study of Rarotonga, Cook Islands
	17.1 Introduction
	17.2 What is “Building Back Better”?
	17.3 Disaster Risk Reduction
	17.4 Community Recovery
	17.5 Effective Implementation
	17.6 Methodology for Case Study: Climate Adaptation and Business Resilience in Rarotonga
	17.7 An Analysis of Climate Adaptation and Business Resilience in Rarotonga Using the Build Back Better Framework
	17.8 Disaster Risk Reduction in Rarotonga
	17.9 Business Resilience in Rarotonga
	17.10 Effective Implementation in Rarotonga
	17.11 Conclusions
	References
18 Rethinking Infrastructure Network Criticality for Climate Resilience: Inputs from Complexity Sciences and Disaster Risk Theory
	18.1 Introduction: The Institutional Legacy of Critical Infrastructures (CI)
	18.2 Infrastructure Networks Criticality Quantification and Lingering Conceptual Gaps
		18.2.1 Centrality Metrics and Local Parameters to Quantify Criticality
		18.2.2 Topological Structure and Global Parameters to Model Critical Infrastructure Networks
		18.2.3 Lingering Conceptual Gaps: Omissions of Network Function and Spatial Boundaries
	18.3 Covering Conceptual Gaps of CI Climate Resilience Bridging Complexity Sciences and Disaster Risk Theories
		18.3.1 Inputs from Ecological Resilience: CI as Complex Adaptive Systems
		18.3.2 Inputs of Disaster Risk Theories and Social Construct of Risk to Qualify CI Functions
	18.4 Resilience Ingression in DRR and Climate Change Policies in the U.S. and Its Implication for Future CI Research
	18.5 Conclusion and Discussion
	References
Correction to: Integrated Research on Disaster Risks
	Correction to:  R. Djalante et al. (eds.),  Integrated Research on Disaster Risks, Disaster Risk Reduction, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-55563-4