Institutional Change and Political Continuity in Post-Soviet Central Asia: Power, Perceptions, and Pacts

Cover......Page 1
Half-title......Page 3
Series-title......Page 5
Title......Page 7
Copyright......Page 8
Dedication......Page 9
Contents......Page 11
Tables......Page 13
Figures......Page 14
Note on Transliteration......Page 16
Acronyms......Page 17
Acknowledgments......Page 19
1 The Continuity of Change......Page 25
Electoral Systems; Institutional Origin and Change; and Regime Transition......Page 27
The Establishment of Electoral Systems in Central Asia: Populist, Centralist, and Dualistic......Page 32
Perceptions of Power: Strategic Bargaining and Institutional Design......Page 34
The Power of Perceptions: Theoretical Contributions......Page 38
Why Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan?......Page 42
Why Interviews and How Were They Conducted?......Page 44
A Road Map......Page 47
2 Explaining Institutional Design in Transitional States......Page 49
Explaining Institutional Design in Transitional States: A Dynamic Approach......Page 50
Transitional Bargaining Game......Page 54
Implications of a Dynamic Approach: Beyond Structure Versus Agency......Page 61
3 Sources of Continuity......Page 75
Potential Social Bases for Identity Formation and Mobilization in Central Asia......Page 77
The Rise of Regionalism in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan......Page 79
Explaining Identity Formation and Ethnic Mobilization......Page 83
Why Regionalism? Why Not Tribalism, Islamic Fundamentalism, and Nationalism?......Page 87
The Soviet Legacy and Regional Cleavages in Kyrgyzstan......Page 98
The Soviet Legacy and Regional Cleavages in Uzbekistan......Page 106
The Soviet Legacy and Regional Cleavages in Kazakhstan......Page 115
Regionalism, Political Stability, and Institutional Continuity......Page 123
4 Sources of Change......Page 126
The Nature of Transitions: General Features and Unique Circumstances......Page 127
The Transitional Context in Kyrgyzstan......Page 130
Features of the Political Transition......Page 132
Features of the Economic Transition......Page 138
International Role......Page 141
State-Building Orientation......Page 143
The Transitional Context in Uzbekistan......Page 144
Features of the Political Transition......Page 145
Features of the Economic Transition......Page 154
International Role......Page 157
State-Building Orientation......Page 158
The Transitional Context in Kazakhstan......Page 160
Features of the Political Transition......Page 161
Features of the Economic Transition......Page 171
International Role......Page 175
State-Building Orientation......Page 176
Agency and the Transition: Contingent Choice and Perceptions of Power......Page 178
5 Establishing an Electoral System in Kyrgyzstan......Page 180
Setting Up the Game: Actors, Preferences, and Underlying Power Asymmetries......Page 182
Playing the Game: Perceptions and Strategies......Page 190
Nomination of Candidates......Page 191
Composition and Jurisdiction of the Electoral Commissions......Page 195
Determination of Seats......Page 197
The Structure of Parliament......Page 202
Institutional Outcomes: Distributional “Winners” and “Losers”......Page 209
Evaluating the Game: The Power of Perceptions......Page 211
6 Establishing an Electoral System in Uzbekistan......Page 213
Setting Up the Game: Actors, Preferences, and Underlying Power Asymmetries......Page 214
Playing the Game: Perceptions and Strategies......Page 221
Nomination of Candidates for Election to Parliament......Page 223
Selection and Jurisdiction of Central and District Electoral Commissions......Page 227
Determination of Seats......Page 230
The Structure of Parliament......Page 233
Outcomes: Institutional “Winners” and “Losers”......Page 234
Evaluating the Game: The Power of Perceptions......Page 235
7 Establishing an Electoral System in Kazakhstan......Page 237
Setting Up the Game: Actors, Preferences, and Underlying Power Asymmetries......Page 239
Playing the Game: Perceptions and Strategies......Page 249
Nomination of Candidates for Election to Parliament......Page 252
Selection and Jurisdiction of Central and District Electoral Commissions......Page 261
Determination of Seats......Page 264
The Structure of Parliament......Page 270
Outcomes: Institutional “Winners” and “Losers”......Page 274
Evaluating the Game: The Power of Perceptions......Page 275
8 Institutional Change through Continuity......Page 277
Competing Approaches and Alternative Explanations......Page 279
Structural Approaches......Page 280
Agency-Based Approaches......Page 285
Explaining the Establishment of Electoral Systems in Central Asia......Page 293
Explaining Patterns of Regime Change in Central Asia......Page 297
Institutional Legacies, Power Asymmetries, and Continuity versus Change......Page 300
“Pacted Transitions” versus “Pacted Stability”......Page 301
Appendix I......Page 304
Appendix II......Page 307
Sources for Appendix II......Page 317
English Language Sources......Page 319
Foreign Language Sources (Russian, Uzbek, Kyrgyz, Kazakh)......Page 328
Index......Page 333