Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences

Introduction
1. Examples and Principles
	Big Numbers, Small Probabilities
	Blood, Mountains, and Burgers
	Gargantuan Numbers and the Forbes 400
	Archimedes and Practically Infinite Numbers
	The Multiplication Principle and Mozart\'s Waltzes
	Triple-Scoop Cones and Von Neumann\'s Trick
	Julius Caesar and You
2. Probability and Coincidence
	Some Birthday vs. a Particular Birthday
	Chance Encounters
	A Stock-Market Scam
	Expected Values: From Blood Testing to Chuck-a-Luck
	Choosing a Spouse
	Coincidence and the Law
	Fair Coins and Life’s Winners and Losers
	The Hot Hand and the Clutch Hitter
3. Pseudoscience
	Innumeracy, Freud, and Pseudoscience
	Parapsychology
	Predictive Dreams
	Li\'l Ol\' Me and the Stars
	Extraterrestrial Life, Yes; Visitors in UFOs, No
	Fraudulent Medical Treatments
	Conditional Probability, Blackjack, and Drug Testing
	Numerology
	Logic and Pseudoscience
4. Whence Innumeracy?
	Remembrance of Innumeracies Past
	Secondary, College, and Graduate Education
	Innumeracy and the Tendency to Personalize
	The Ubiquity of Filtering and Coincidence
	Decisions and Framing Questions
	Math Anxiety
	Romantic Misconceptions
	Digression: A Logarithmic Safety Index
5. Statistics, Trade-Offs, and Society
	Priorities—Individual vs. Societal
	Laissez-Faire: Adam Smith, or Thomas Hobbes
	Birthdays, Death Days, and ESP
	Type I and Type II Errors: From Politics to Pascal\'s Wager
	Polling with Confidence
	Obtaining Personal Information
	Two Theoretical Results
	Correlation and Causation
	Breast Cancer, Muggings, and Wages: Simple Statistical Mistakes
	Odds and Addenda
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