Hurricane! Coping with Disaster: Progress and Challenges Since Galveston, 1900

Title Page......Page 1
Copyright
......Page 2
Contents
......Page 3
Foreword......Page 5
Preface......Page 7
Acknowledgment......Page 10
Struggles to Understand and Track Hurricanes......Page 11
INTRODUCTION......Page 12
UNIQUE CHARACTERISTICS......Page 20
HISTORICAL MILESTONES......Page 32
EPILOGUE- PERSONAL REFLECTIONS FROM 45 YEARS OF
HURRICANE RESEARCH......Page 41
OVERVIEW......Page 44
REFERENCES......Page 45
BACKGROUND......Page 47
OBSTACLES ENCOUNTERED......Page 53
ROLE OF NEW TECHNOLOGY......Page 55
"PIGGY-BACKING" RESEARCH MISSIONS ON
HURRICANE RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS......Page 63
REFERENCES......Page 68
INTRODUCTION......Page 70
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE RESEARCH PROJECT NHRP......Page 71
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE RESEARCH PROJECT
EVOLVES INTO A NOAA LABORATORY......Page 77
WEATHER MODIFICATION IN HURRICANES:
PROJECT STORMFURY......Page 83
SCIENCE AND PREDICTION PROGRESS RESULTING FROM
THE TECHNOLOGY ADVANCES OF THE 1980s AND 1990s......Page 90
NEW TECHNOLOGY TO STUDY
THE HURRICANE'S LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER......Page 98
SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS......Page 106
REFERENCES......Page 107
INTRODUCTION......Page 109
VERIFICATION DATABASE......Page 112
TRACK FORECAST MODELS......Page 114
INTENSITY FORECAST MODELS......Page 126
VERIFICATION RESULTS......Page 127
SUMMARY AND DISCUSSION......Page 129
REFERENCES......Page 131
Societal and Economic Challenges......Page 133
INTRODUCTION......Page 135
LESSONS LEARNED FROM THE GREAT GALVESTON HURRICANE......Page 141
POTENTIAL IMPACT OF AN EQUIVALENT "GREAT HURRICANE"......Page 144
REFERENCES......Page 146
INTRODUCTION......Page 147
CREDIBILITY IN EVALUATING SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC LOSSES......Page 148
APPROACHES TO DEALING WITH HURRICANES......Page 150
WHAT RESEARCH TELLS US ABOUT THESE APPROACHES......Page 154
CONCLUSIONS......Page 157
CHALLENGES FOR THE FUTURE......Page 158
REFERENCES......Page 159
CREATING THE HURRICANE SCALE......Page 160
WIND LOAD DESIGN AND BUILDING CODES......Page 163
RECOMMENDED REQUIREMENTS FOR NEW CODES OR
FOR UPGRADING HURRICANE-RESISTANT CODES......Page 165
LESSONS FROM HURRICANE ANDREW......Page 168
REFERENCES......Page 169
THE NATURE OF THE HURRICANE PROBLEM......Page 170
CHALLENGES TO THE EFFECTIVE USE
OF HURRICANE FORECASTS......Page 171
VULNERABILITY IN THE CARIB BEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA......Page 174
CONCLUSION......Page 176
REFERENCES......Page 178
Present and Future......Page 179
INTRODUCTION......Page 180
PROGRESS THROUGH THE SECOND WORLD WAR......Page 181
WATERSHED YEARS: 1943-1964......Page 182
CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY OF THE SECOND KIND CISK......Page 186
SYNTHESIS OF NEW OBSERVATIONS......Page 189
THE ERA OF NUMERICAL MODELING......Page 192
BACK TO THE OCEAN......Page 196
HURRICANE MOTION......Page 199
THE GENESIS PROBLEM......Page 200
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION......Page 202
HURRICANES AND CLIMATE......Page 203
SUMMARY AND A LOOK AHEAD......Page 205
REFERENCES......Page 206
CONTEXT......Page 208
MEASUREMENTS......Page 211
DATA AND MODELS......Page 215
SUMMARY......Page 218
REFERENCES......Page 219
INTRODUCTION......Page 220
APPLICATIONS OF VISIBLE-INFRARED VIS-IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND DERIVED PRODUCTS FOR HURRICANE
DIAGNOSTICS AND FORECASTS......Page 221
THE EMERGENCE OF OBSERVATIONS IN THE MICROWAVE......Page 230
SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK......Page 247
REFERENCES......Page 249
INTRODUCTION......Page 251
BACKGROUND......Page 252
APPROACH AND DATA USED......Page 258
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION......Page 261
CONCLUDING REMARKS......Page 288
REFERENCES......Page 291
DRONE AIRCRAFT......Page 292
DRONE AIRCRAFT FOR HURRICANE RECONNAISSANCE......Page 295
THE AEROSONDE......Page 296
OPTIMAL MIX OF UAV AND OTHER OBSERVING SYSTEMS......Page 297
SURVIVAL AND RISK AVOIDANCE STRATEGIES......Page 299
CYCLONE DEPLOYMENT SCENARIO......Page 302
CONCLUSION......Page 303
REFERENCES......Page 304
OBSERVATIONAL GAPS......Page 306
PRINCIPLES OF DOPPLER LIDAR WIND MEASUREMENT......Page 307
PAST APPLICATIONS OF DWL......Page 309
DWL IN SPACE......Page 312
SIMULATIONS OF DWL OBSERVATIONS OF HURRICANES......Page 314
REFERENCES......Page 315
INTRODUCTION......Page 317
OBSERVING SYSTEMS......Page 318
UNDERSTANDING TROPICAL CYCLONES......Page 321
FORECASTS AND WARNINGS......Page 323
FORECAST SKILL......Page 325
COMMUNICATING THE MESSAGE......Page 327
THE NEXT 100 YEARS......Page 328
APPENDICES RECOMMENDED FURTHER READING......Page 335
ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS......Page 336
BRIEF METEOROLOGICAL GLOSSARY......Page 339
GLOSSARY OF UNITS OF MEASURE......Page 349
Index
......Page 351
About the Editor......Page 360