Human Judgment: How Accurate Is It, and How Can It Get Better?

Testimonies
Acknowledgments
Contents
Chapter 1: Introduction
	1.1 Judgmental Accuracy: Why It Is Important
	1.2 The Focus of This Book
	1.3 How This Book Was Researched
	1.4 Intended Audiences and How to Read This Book
	1.5 Structure of This Book
	References
Chapter 2: What Is Judgmental Accuracy: Concepts and Measurement
	2.1 What Judgmental Accuracy Involves: Correspondence and Confidence
		2.1.1 Objective Truth and the Correspondence Theory
		2.1.2 Misconceptions About Objective Truth
			2.1.2.1 Objection #1: The Diversity of Opinions About Truth
			2.1.2.2 Objection #2: The Subjectivity of Truths About Money or Other Topics
			2.1.2.3 Objection #3: Track Record of Failures to Grasp Truth
			2.1.2.4 Objection #4: There Is No Way to Tell Truth
			2.1.2.5 Objection #5: Truth Depends on Language
			2.1.2.6 Objection #6: The Ambiguity and Vagueness of Language
			2.1.2.7 Objection #7: Alternative Definitions of Objectivity
		2.1.3 Why Does It Matter?
		2.1.4 Degrees of Confidence
	2.2 How Do We Measure Judgmental Accuracy: Calibration, Resolution, and Friends
		2.2.1 Measurement Validity: Internal and External
		2.2.2 A Good Measure of Accuracy: Binned Calibration and Resolution
		2.2.3 Less Good Measures of Accuracy
			2.2.3.1 Unbinned Calibration
			2.2.3.2 Brier Scores
		2.2.4 Measures of Collective Accuracy
			2.2.4.1 Unweighted Binned Calibration
			2.2.4.2 Unbinned Calibration
			2.2.4.3 Brier Scores
			2.2.4.4 Weighted Binned Calibration
	2.3 Summary
	References
Chapter 3: What We Think: The Accuracy of Our Judgments
	3.1 Who Is Accurate: How Society Flies Blind
	3.2 How Accurate Are Cultures: Inaccuracy in Cross-Cultural Psychology
	3.3 How Accurate Are Medical Professionals: Inaccuracy in Medicine
	3.4 How Accurate Are Political Experts: Inaccuracy in Political Judgment
	3.5 How Accurate Are Judges and Juries: Inaccuracy in Law
	3.6 Other Evidence of Inaccuracy: Disagreement
	3.7 Contexts with Underconfidence
	3.8 Summary
	References
Chapter 4: How We Evaluate Our Thinking: The Accuracy of Our Metacognition
	4.1 Evidence of Metacognitive Inaccuracy
	4.2 Explanations of Metacognitive Inaccuracy
	4.3 Summary
	References
Chapter 5: How We Think: The Rationality of Our Reasoning
	5.1 Rationality, Heuristics, and Biases
	5.2 Dual-Process Theory: System 1 and System 2
	5.3 Misconceptions About Heuristics and Type 1 Processing
	5.4 Search Heuristics and Inference Heuristics
		5.4.1 Motivation, Search Heuristics, and Confirmation Bias
		5.4.2 Availability Heuristic
		5.4.3 Representativeness Heuristic
		5.4.4 Anchoring Heuristic
		5.4.5 Motivated Reasoning
	5.5 Social Influences
	5.6 Summary
	References
Chapter 6: How We Were Made: The Evolutionary Origins of Thought
	6.1 Evolution, Functions, and the Intellectualist View
	6.2 Mercier and Sperber’s Interactionist Approach
	6.3 Critical Evaluation of Mercier and Sperber’s Arguments
	6.4 Tangential Interlude: The Harm of Confirmation Bias
	6.5 Summary
	References
Chapter 7: What Correlates with Accuracy: The Empirical Epistemology of Optimal Cognition
	7.1 Empirical Epistemology
	7.2 The Domain Generality of Empirical Epistemology
	7.3 Insights from Empirical Epistemology
		7.3.1 Situational Variables
		7.3.2 Motivational Variables
		7.3.3 Cognitive Variables
		7.3.4 Metacognitive Variables
		7.3.5 What Does Not Correlate with Accuracy
	7.4 Summary
	References
Chapter 8: How Can We Get More Accurate: Recommendations About Human Judgment
	8.1 Category 1: Improving Our Own Judgments
		8.1.1 Foster Motivation
		8.1.2 Become Accountable
		8.1.3 Track Your Accuracy
		8.1.4 Be Your Own Skeptic: Expect Inaccuracy and Embrace Humility
		8.1.5 Beware of Intuition
		8.1.6 Practice Active Open-Minded Thinking
		8.1.7 Gather Subject-Specific Knowledge and from Diverse Sources
		8.1.8 Use Statistics, Especially Base Rates
		8.1.9 Average Estimates from Conflicting Sources
		8.1.10 Test for Scope Sensitivity
		8.1.11 Do Postmortems
		8.1.12 Take Some Training
	8.2 Category 2: Estimating the Accuracy of Other Sources
		8.2.1 Be Skeptical of Judgment, But Not Too Skeptical
		8.2.2 Estimate Accuracy Based on Track Records
		8.2.3 Look for Models or Theories with Track Records of Accuracy
		8.2.4 Pay Attention to Qualifiers
		8.2.5 Do Not Estimate Accuracy Based on One-Off Successes or Failures
		8.2.6 Do Not Always Estimate Accuracy from Years of Experience, Education, Fame, or Confidence Levels
		8.2.7 Trust Experts, But Not Too Much
		8.2.8 Listen to Non-Experts, But Not Uncritically
		8.2.9 Beware of Negative Social Influences
		8.2.10 Tolerate Length and Nuance
	8.3 Category 3: Managing Businesses or Other Organizations
		8.3.1 Adopt all the Recommendations in the Previous Category
		8.3.2 Promote Motivation and Accountability in Your Organization
		8.3.3 Measure Track Records
		8.3.4 Give Feedback
		8.3.5 Expect Backlash from the Inaccurate
		8.3.6 When Possible, Create Teams, Especially of Those with the Best Track Records
		8.3.7 Give Training
		8.3.8 Make Accuracy Profitable
	References
Chapter 9: Conclusion
Appendix: Judgments and Emotions
The Close Connection Between Judgment and Emotions
Cognitive Behavioral Therapy
Step One: Understanding Emotions Via Understanding Their Underlying Judgments
Step Two: Challenging Judgments
References
Index