How much have global problems cost the world? : a scorecard from 1900 to 2050

Cover
Contents
Figures
Tables
Contributors
Acknowledgments
Introduction
	The Costs of Human Challenges
	This Book’s Contents
	Methodology and Coverage
		Finance
		Demographics and Population
		Resources and Energy
		Physical and Communications Infrastructure
		Civil Rights/Human Rights/Democracy/Racism
		Corruption
		Politics
		Happiness
	Development of Human Welfare
	Summary
Summaries Summary of the Assessment Paper on Air Pollution:
Global Damage Costs from 1900 to 2050
	Introduction
	Methods
	Results
		Total Damages
		Developing and Developed Countries
		Contribution to Impacts
		Sensitivity Analysis
	Discussion
	Introduction
	The World Economy from 1900 to the Present
	Conflicts in the Twentieth Century
	Analytical Methodology
	The Human Cost of War
	2007–2050: Predicting the Peace Dividend?
	Conclusion
	Introduction
	Starting Point: The Data and Model
	Results
	Conclusions
	Introduction
	Change in the MSA Area
	The Economic Impact
	The Economic Impact Related to a Loss of MSA Area
	Conclusions
	Introduction
	Historical Perspective
	Defining the Current Challenge
	The Extent of the Education Challenge
	Conclusions
	Introduction
	Historical Background
	The Extent of the Challenge
	Calculating the Costs of Gender Differences at Work
	The Historical and Future Costs of Gender Inequality
	Introduction
	The Magnitude and Origins of Mortality Decline
	Quantifying the Impact
	Accomplishments and Challenges
	Conclusion
	Introduction
	Evidence for a Link between Height and Earnings
	Observed Trends and Projections
	The Economic and Human Costs of Undernutrition
	Conclusions
	Introduction
	A Historical Perspective
	The Costs of Trade Distortion
	Economic Effects of Trade Barriers
	Future Impacts
	The Full Picture
	Growth Promotion
	Overall Benefits of Liberalization
	Introduction
	Simulation Modeling Framework and Data, and Calibration
	Simulation Model Results
		Coverage of Improved Water and Sanitation Services
		WASH-Related Mortality
		Predictions of average time to water
		Economic Losses from Lack of Piped Water and Sanitation Services
	Discussion
Chapter 1 Air Pollution: Global Damage Costs
from 1900 to 2050
	Introduction
		Problem Identification
		Overview of Existing Research and Available Data
	Methods
		Aims
		Scope
		Estimation Methodology Overview
		Health Damage Estimation
			Impacts Included
			Estimation Method
			Available Health Impact Studies
			Methods for Valuing Health Impacts
			Time Extrapolation of Available Data Sets
		Building and Other Materials Damage Estimation
			Impacts Included
			Estimation Method
			Available Impact Studies
			Extrapolation of Available Data Set
		Natural Resources and Crop Damage Estimation
			Impacts Included
			Estimation Method
			Available Impact Studies
		Other Socio-Economic Damage Estimation
			Impacts Included
			Estimation Method and Available Study
		Visibility Damage Estimation
			Impacts Included
			Estimation Method and Available Impact Studies
		Ecosystems
		Sensitivity Analysis
	Results
		Total Damages
		Outdoor Air Pollution
		Indoor air pollution
		Developing Countries
		Developed Countries
		Contribution to Impacts
		Sensitivity Analysis
	Discussion
	References
Chapter 2 Armed Conflicts: The Economic Welfare
Costs of Conflict
	Introduction
	The World Economy from 1900 to the Present
	Conflicts in the Twentieth Century
	Analytical Methodology
	The Human Cost of War
	2007 to 2050: Predicting the Peace Dividend?
	Conclusion
	References
Chapter 3 Climate Change: The Economic Impact
of Climate Change in the Twentieth
and Twenty-First Centuries
	Introduction
	Data and Model
		Data
		Model
	Results
	Discussion and Conclusion
	References
Chapter 4 Ecosystems and Biodiversity: Economic Loss
of Ecosystem Services from 1900 to 2050
	Introduction
	Change in MSA Area
		The Model
		Limitations and Uncertainties
		Projections of MSA Areas
	The Economic Impact
		Forests
			Wood and Non-Wood Forest Products
			Carbon
			Cultural Services
		Grassland and Steppe
	The Economic Impact Related to a Loss of MSA Area
		Gross Economic Impact on Natural Capital
		Net Economic Impacts on Annual Flows Provided by Ecosystem Services Taking Account of Agricultural Benefits
		Carbon in Forests
		Wood Forest Products and Non-Wood Forest Products
		Forest Recreational Activities
		Forest Passive Use
		Distribution of the Impact by Ecosystem Services
	Conclusions
	References
	Annex 4.1
Chapter 5 Education: The Income and Equity Loss
of not Having a Faster Rate of Human
Capital Accumulation
	Introduction
	Historical Perspective
	Defining the Challenge
	Review of the Analytical Literature
	Estimating the Challenge
		Data and Sources
		Efficiency and Equity Links
		Methodology
		Data Periods
		An Illustrative Case
		Alternative Pakistan Simulation
		World Estimates
		Regional Estimates
		Yearly Estimates
		Welfare Loss Using Growth Accounting
	The Welfare Loss of Illiteracy
	Equity Links
	Caveats
	Conclusion
	References
Chapter 6 Gender Inequality: A Key Global
Challenge – Reducing Losses due to Gender
Inequality
	Introduction to the Challenge
	Background to the Challenge
	Delimitation of the Challenge
	Definition of the Challenge
	Relevant Research and Available Data for the Challenge
		Gender Differences in Participation in Paid Work
		Gender Differences in Wages
		Valuing Household Production
		Gender Differences in Educational Attainment and Training
	Calculating the Costs of Gender Inequality from 1900 to 2010
	Calculating the Costs of Gender Inequality from 2010 to 2050
	Results for the Costs of Gender Inequality from 1900 to 2050
	Related Topics and Additional Considerations
	Conclusions Regarding the Challenge
	References
Chapter 7 Human Health: The Twentieth-Century
Transformation of Human Health – Its
Magnitude and Value
	The Magnitude and Origins of Mortality Decline in the Twentieth Century
	Estimation of the Number of Years of Life Lost (YLLs) and Its Money Metric Value
		2.1. Background and Methods
			Notation
			Data and Empirical Relationship between b and e5
			Estimation of Survival Curves above Age 5
			Money Metric Value of YLLs
		Reductions in YLLs
			YLLs due to “Mortality Shocks”
		Money Metric Value of YLL Reduction
	Specific Health Problems: Accomplishments and Challenges
		Accomplishments: Child Survival
			Staggering Declines in Child Mortality
			The Role of Technologies in Child Mortality Declines
			The Uncertain but Perhaps Large Contribution of Malaria Control
			Nutrition and Infection
			Current and Future Child Mortality
		Accomplishments: Smallpox Eradication
			Smallpox before Eradication
			Global Eradication
		Challenges: Tobacco Control
			Trends in Smoking in Developed and Developing Countries
			Effects of Cessation on Lung Cancer and Total Deaths
			Overall Current Risks from Smoking
			Future Risks from Smoking and Estimates
			How Can Cessation Rates be Raised Rapidly Worldwide?
	Conclusion
	References
	Annex 7.1
	Annex 7.2
Chapter 8 Malnutrition: Global Economic Losses
Attributable to Malnutrition 1900–2000
and Projections to 2050
	Introduction
	Empirical Evidence of the Effect of Height on Earnings, and Height on Mortality
	Height Database: Trends in Height 1900–2010, and Projections 2010–2050
	Model
	Results: Economic and Human Costs of Undernutrition
	Discussion and Conclusions
	References
Chapter 9 Trade Barriers: Costing Global Trade Barriers,
1900 to 2050
	Introduction
	Trade Policies and Institutions since the Nineteenth Century
	Methodology for Estimating the Cost of Trade-Distorting Policies
	Estimates of Trade Tax Equivalents in the Twentieth Century
	Modeling the Welfare Effects of Trade Barriers
	Cost of Trade Barriers as of 2004
	Cost of Trade Barriers in 2050 if Policies as of 2004 Are Unchanged
	Cost of Trade Barriers in 2050 if Policies Become More Liberal (Low Protection Case)
	Cost of Trade Barriers in 2050 if Policies Become Less Liberal (High Protection Case)
	Cost in 2004 if Price-Distorting Policies Had not Changed since 1980–84
	Cost of Price-Distorting Policies prior to 1980
	Adjusting for Elements Missing from the Calculus
	Non-Tariff Barriers (NTBs) to Goods Trade
	Averaging of Tariffs for Including in Models
	Barriers to Trade in Services
	Allowing Financial Market Integration
	Allowing Economies of Scale and Imperfect Competition
	Allowing for Product Quality and Variety Differences, and New Product Emergence
	Administration, Compliance, and Lobbying Costs
	Growth-Enhancing Impacts of Reform
	Synopsis
	Summary and Conclusion
	References
Chapter 10 Water and Sanitation: Economic Losses
from Poor Water and Sanitation – Past,
Present, and Future
	Introduction
	Recent Findings from the Literature on Improvements in Water and Sanitation
		What are the Implications of These Findings for Our Analysis?
	Problem Framing: What Precisely are We Trying to Measure?
	Modeling Framework
	Data, Model Parameterization, and Analytical Approach
		Data considerations and Model Specification
		Estimates of Associations between WASH-Related Death Rates, Income, and Coverage with Improved WASH Services
		Estimates of Associations between Average Water Collection Time, Income, and Coverage with Improved WASH Services
		Estimates of Associations between Water and Sanitation Coverage, Income, and Other Variables
		The Simulation Model for Health Losses
	Results
		The Evolution of Water and Sanitation Coverage and WASH-Related Economic Losses in China, India, Brazil, and Nigeria
		Progression of Water and Sanitation Coverage in Less Developed Regions
		Historical and Future WASH-Related Mortality
		Predictions of Average Time to Water
		“Economic Losses” from Lack of Piped Water and Sanitation
	Discussion
	References
	Annex 10.1: Estimating the Valueof the Statistical Life (VSL) forCalculating Global Losses fromInadequate Water and Sanitation
		Introduction
		The Concept of VSL
			Compensating Wage Differential (Wage–Risk) Approaches to Estimating VSL: Theory and Challenges
			Stated-Preference Approaches to Estimating VSL: Theory and Challenges
		Overview of VSL Estimates in Less Developed Countries
		Critique of the Standard Benefit Transfer Approach Based on Income Elasticity
		Our Modeling Approach for the Economic Analysis of Global Losses from Inadequate Water and Sanitation
	Annex 10.2: Data Sources for ControlVariables in the Regression Models
	Annex 10.3: Additional Tables and Figures
Index