Growth, Jobs and Poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa: No Country Left Behind

Acknowledgments
Contents
List of Figures
List of Tables
1 The Narrative for Sub-Saharan Africa
	1.1 The Economic Context of Sub-Saharan Africa
	1.2 The Analytical Framework and Narrative of the Book
	1.3 Methodological Framework
		1.3.1 Empirically Led Theory
		1.3.2 Aggregation of Countries
		1.3.3 A Predominantly Macro-Argument
	1.4 The Structure of the Book
	Appendix
	References
2 The Quantum of Growth
	2.1 An Analytical Preamble
	2.2 This Chapter on Growth
	2.3 The Quantum of GDP Growth
		2.3.1 Relatively Weak Growth in SSA
		2.3.2 Capturing the Volatility of Growth in SSA
		2.3.3 Capturing the Volatility of Growth by Income Group in SSA
		2.3.4 Comparing Volatility Between SSA and Other Regions
		2.3.5 Weaknesses in the Quantum of Growth in SSA
	2.4 Drivers of Growth in SSA
		2.4.1 Choosing an Appropriate Driver of Growth as a Metric to Analyse SSA
		2.4.2 The Literature on Drivers of Growth
		2.4.3 Reliance on Exogenous Drivers of Growth
		2.4.4 Explaining SSAs Weaknesses in the Quantum of GDP Growth
	2.5 The Observed Relationship Between Extractives and Manufactures in SSA
	2.6 The Impact of Commodity Boom-Bust Cycles in the Export Market for Tradeables
	2.7 The Crowding-Out Effect of Commodities
	2.8 The Observed Relationship Between Commodities (Tradeables Market) and Manufacturing and Services (Goods Market)
		2.8.1 Growth
		2.8.2 Shares
		2.8.3 SSA in a Global Context
	2.9 Conclusion
	Appendix
	References
3 The Labour Market in Sub-Saharan Africa
	3.1 From a General Equilibrium Model with Two Markets to a Third Market for Labour
		3.1.1 Incorporating the Labour Market
		3.1.2 The Productive Transformation Literature: Constraints to the Goods Market
		3.1.3 Bringing the Labour Market into the Productive Transformation Narrative
		3.1.4 The Labour Market Revisited in the Context of Developing Countries and SSA
		3.1.5 Contractual Transformation in the Labour Market
	3.2 An Analytical Model to Examine the Labour Market in SSA
	3.3 Three Metrics to Examine Labour Market Outcomes in SSA
		3.3.1 Caveat 1: The Working Poor
		3.3.2 Caveat 2: Productivity and Sectoral Employment
		3.3.3 Caveat 3: Contractual Change in the Labour Market
	3.4 Conclusions
	References
4 Poverty Causality and Welfare
	4.1 Introduction
	4.2 A Theoretical Model of General Equilibrium in Three Markets and Outcomes for SSA
	4.3 Outcomes in Three Markets—Tradeables, Goods and Labour—and Implications for Income and Poverty
	4.4 Poverty Reduction Over Time
		4.4.1 Aggregate Poverty in Africa
		4.4.2 Country Poverty in SSA
	4.5 Influencing the Primary Distribution of Income to Reduce Poverty
		4.5.1 A Theoretical Framework to Relate the Primary Distribution of Income to the Labour Market
		4.5.2 Estimating Some Complex Decompositions
		4.5.3 Some Results
			4.5.3.1 A Demographic Drag on the Poor
			4.5.3.2 The Poor Can Ill Afford to Be Unemployed or Inactive
			4.5.3.3 The Poor Have Less Employment
			4.5.3.4 The Poor Have Much Lower Access to Waged Work
			4.5.3.5 The Poor Have a Disproportionately Higher Share of Contributing Family Work
			4.5.3.6 The Poor Are Amassed in Low-Productivity Agriculture Rather Than Higher-Productivity Industry or Services
			4.5.3.7 Within Industry and Services, the Poor Have the Lowest Shares in Manufacturing and Trade
			4.5.3.8 The Implications of These Immediate Determinants of the Primary Distribution of Income for SSA
			4.5.3.9 Transfers
			4.5.3.10 Contractual Change
			4.5.3.11 Sectoral Change, or Kaldor-Lin-Chang Productive Transformation
		4.5.4 The Secondary Distribution of Income: The Role of Transfers in Reducing Poverty
			4.5.4.1 The Concept of an Income Gap as an Analytical and Heuristic Device to Base Poverty Policy
			4.5.4.2 Estimates of the Income Gap for SSA
	4.6 Conclusions
	References
5 Vulnerabilities in Sub-Saharan Africa: Hunger and Prices
	5.1 Introduction to Goods and Prices in Sub-Saharan Africa
	5.2 Food Availability as a Necessary Condition for Caloric Intake in SSA
		5.2.1 Expectations of Food Availability in SSA
		5.2.2 Domestic Production of Cereals
		5.2.3 Food Imports
		5.2.4 Food Aid
	5.3 Food Access as a Necessary Condition for Caloric Intake in SSA
		5.3.1 Hunger, Famines and Food Prices
		5.3.2 Differentiating Between Poverty and Hunger
	5.4 A Metric to Capture the Long-Run Chronic Nature of Poverty in SSA
		5.4.1 Undernourishment
		5.4.2 The Further Implications of Undernourishment in Stunting, Wasting and Mortality
	5.5 A Metric to Capture the Short-Run Nature of Hunger in SSA
	5.6 Sen Entitlements and Prices to Explain the Contra-Trend Increase in Hunger in SSA
	5.7 The Role of Pricing Policy
	5.8 The Role of Conflict
	5.9 Conclusion: The Role of Prices
		5.9.1 Theoretical and Policy Implications of Prices in SSA
		5.9.2 Further Policy Implications of Prices in SSA
	References
6 Macro-policy for Sub-Saharan Africa
	6.1 The Argument of the Book
		6.1.1 Growth
		6.1.2 The Labour Market in SSA
		6.1.3 Poverty and Welfare
		6.1.4 Vulnerabilities in SSA: Hunger and Prices
		6.1.5 The Theoretical and Policy Implications of Prices in SSA
		6.1.6 The Further Policy Implications of Prices in SSA
	6.2 Growth, Jobs, Poverty, Hunger and Their Determinants in SSA
		6.2.1 The Challenges to GDP Growth and Their Determinants in SSA
		6.2.2 The Challenge of Employment and Its Determinants in SSA
		6.2.3 The Challenge of Poverty and Its Determinants in SSA
		6.2.4 The Challenge of Hunger and Its Determinants in SSA
		6.2.5 Summarising the Determinants of Macro-challenges in Growth, Jobs, Poverty and Hunger
	6.3 Macro-policy for SSA
	6.4 The Accumulation of Financial Capital in SSA
		6.4.1 The Determinants of Investment
		6.4.2 The Trend in Investment Over Time
		6.4.3 The Trend in Savings Over Time
		6.4.4 The Trend in Inflows Over Time
		6.4.5 The Trend in Budget Balances Over Time
		6.4.6 Prices, Budgets and Interest Rates in the Money Market
		6.4.7 Prices
		6.4.8 Budget Balances and Prices
		6.4.9 Interest Rates and Prices
		6.4.10 The Trade-Off Between Prices in the Money Market and Growth in the Goods Market
	6.5 The Accumulation of Human Capital in SSA
		6.5.1 The Theory and Empirical Literature on Human Capital
		6.5.2 Human Capital in SSA
		6.5.3 The Metrics for Accumulation of Human Capital in SSA
		6.5.4 The Metrics for Accumulation of Knowledge-Based  Capital in SSA
	References