Global Catastrophic Risks

Acknowledgements......Page 10
Martin J. Rees. Foreword......Page 11
Contents......Page 15
1.1 Why?......Page 23
1.2 Taxonomy and organization......Page 24
1.3 Part I: Background......Page 27
1.4 Part II: Risks from nature......Page 31
1.5 Part III: Risks from unintended consequences......Page 32
2.2 Fate of the Earth......Page 43
2.4 Collision with Andromeda......Page 45
2.5 The end of stellar evolution......Page 46
2.6 The era of degenerate remnants......Page 47
2.7  The era of black holes......Page 48
2.8  The Dark Era and beyond......Page 49
2.10 Conclusion......Page 50
References......Page 51
3.2 The causes of evolutionary change......Page 54
3.3 Environmental changes and evolutionary changes......Page 55
3.3.1 Extreme evolutionary changes......Page 56
3.3.2 Ongoing evolutionary changes......Page 57
3.3.3 Changes in the cultural environment......Page 59
3.4 Ongoing human evolution......Page 62
3.4.1 Behavioural evolution......Page 63
3.5 Future evolutionary directions......Page 66
Suggestions for further reading......Page 68
4.2 Types of millennialism......Page 72
4.4 Positive or negative teleologies: utopianism and apocalypticism......Page 74
4.5 Contemporary techno-millennialism......Page 75
4.6 Techno-apocalypticism......Page 77
4.7 Symptoms of dysfunctional millennialism in assessing future scenarios......Page 79
Suggestions for further reading......Page 80
1: Availability......Page 85
2: Hindsight bias......Page 86
3: Black Swans......Page 87
4: The conjunction fallacy......Page 88
5: Confirmation bias......Page 90
6: Anchoring, adjustment, and contamination......Page 92
7: The affect heuristic......Page 94
8: Scope neglect......Page 95
9: Calibration and overconfidence......Page 96
10: Bystander apathy......Page 98
A final caution......Page 99
Conclusion......Page 100
6.1 Introduction: anthropic reasoning and global risks......Page 106
6.3 Doomsday Argument......Page 112
6.4 Fermi's paradox......Page 113
6.5 The Simulation Argument......Page 118
6.6 Making progress in studying observation selection effects......Page 119
7.1 Introduction......Page 121
7.2 Risk to interdependent infrastructure and sectors of the economy......Page 122
7.3 Hierarchical holographic modelling and the theory of scenario structuring......Page 123
7.4 Phantom system models for risk management of emergent multi-scale systems......Page 125
7.5 Risk of extreme and catastrophic events......Page 127
8.1 Introduction......Page 135
8.2 Catastrophes......Page 136
8.4 Insurance......Page 138
8.5 Pricing the risk......Page 141
8.6 Catastrophe loss models......Page 142
8.7 What is risk?......Page 143
8.8 Price and probability......Page 145
8.9 The age of uncertainty......Page 146
8.11 Conclusion: against the gods?......Page 148
9. Richard A. Posner. Public policy towards catastrophe......Page 150
Part II. Risks from nature......Page 162
10.2 Atmospheric impact of a super-eruption......Page 163
10.3 Volcanic winter......Page 164
10.4 Possible environmental effects of a super-eruption......Page 166
10.5 Super-eruptions and human population......Page 167
10.7 Effects of a super-eruptions on civilization......Page 168
10.8 Super-eruptions and life in the universe......Page 169
11.2 How often are we struck?......Page 175
11.3 The effects of impact......Page 179
11.4 The role of dust......Page 181
11.5 Ground truth?......Page 183
12.2  Radiation threats......Page 187
12.2.2 Solar flares......Page 190
12.3 Cosmic ray threats......Page 194
13.1 Introduction......Page 203
13.3 A simple model of climate change......Page 204
13.5 Defining dangerous climate change......Page 210
13.6 Regional climate risk under anthropogenic change......Page 211
13.7 Climate risk and mitigation policy......Page 212
13.8 Discussion and conclusions......Page 214
14.2 The baseline: the chronic and persisting burden of infectious disease......Page 218
14.4 The nature and source of the parasites......Page 219
14.6 Nature of the disease impact: high morbidity, high mortality, or both......Page 222
14.11 Plagues of historical note......Page 225
14.12 Contemporary plagues and pandemics......Page 226
14.14 Discussion and conclusions......Page 228
1: Anthropomorphic bias......Page 232
3: Underestimating the power of intelligence......Page 235
4: Capability and motive......Page 237
5: Friendly AI......Page 239
6: Technical failure and philosophical failure......Page 240
7: Rates of intelligence increase......Page 243
8: Hardware......Page 247
9: Threats and promises......Page 248
10: Local and majoritarian strategies......Page 251
11: AI versus human intelligence enhancement......Page 254
12: Interactions of AI with other technologies......Page 257
13: Making progress on Friendly AI......Page 258
Conclusion......Page 260
16.2 Looking before leaping......Page 264
16.4 Wondering......Page 273
17. Robin Hanson. Catastrophe, Social Collapse, and Human Extinction......Page 276
Social Growth......Page 277
Social Collapse......Page 278
The Distribution of Disaster......Page 279
Existential Disasters......Page 280
PART IV.  Risks from hostile acts.......Page 287
18.1 Introduction......Page 288
18.2 Calculating Armageddon......Page 291
18.3 The current nuclear balance......Page 296
18.5 A comprehensive approach......Page 299
18.6 Conclusion......Page 301
19.1 Introduction......Page 303
19.2 Historical recognition of the risk of nuclear terrorism......Page 304
19.3 Motivations and capabilities for nuclear terrorism......Page 305
19.5 Consequences of nuclear terrorism......Page 319
19.6 Risk assessment and risk reduction......Page 323
20.1 Introduction......Page 336
20.2 Biological weapons and risks......Page 337
20.3 Biological weapons are distinct from other so-called weapons of mass destruction......Page 338
20.4 Benefits come with risks......Page 339
20.5 Biotechnology risks go beyond traditional virology, micro- and molecular biology......Page 341
20.6 Addressing biotechnology risks......Page 342
20.7 Catastrophic biological attacks......Page 346
20.8 Strengthening disease surveillance and response......Page 348
20.9 Towards a biologically secure future......Page 351
21. Chris Phoenix and Mike Treder. Nanotechnology as global catastrophic risk......Page 357
21.2 Molecular manufacturing......Page 358
21.3 Mitigation of molecular manufacturing risks......Page 365
21.4 Discussion and conclusion......Page 367
22.1 Totalitarianism: what happened and why it (mostly) ended......Page 371
22.2 Stable totalitarianism......Page 372
22.3 Risk factors for stable totalitarianism......Page 375
22.4 Totalitarian risk management......Page 378
Authors' biographies......Page 382