Gaining Momentum: Managing the Diffusion of Innovations (Series on Technology Management - Vol. 15 )

Contents......Page 10
Preface......Page 6
List of Contributors......Page 12
Part I Generic Factors Influencing the Diffusion of Innovations......Page 16
1.1 Introduction......Page 18
1.2 Disciplinary Research on Diffusion......Page 20
1.3 Models of Diffusion......Page 28
1.4.1.1 Relative advantage......Page 35
1.4.1.2 Compatibility......Page 36
1.4.1.3 Complexity......Page 37
1.4.1.4 Trialability......Page 38
1.4.1.5 Observability......Page 39
1.5 Towards a Process for Managing Diffusion......Page 41
1.5.1 Unintended consequences: dealing with risk and uncertainty......Page 43
1.6 Role of Innovation Networks......Page 48
1.7 Conclusions......Page 56
References......Page 57
2.1 Introduction......Page 62
2.2 Patterns in Technological Innovation and Diffusion......Page 64
2.3 Defining the Pattern......Page 68
2.3.1 Milestone 1: invention......Page 70
2.3.2 Milestone 2: introduction......Page 71
2.3.3 Milestone 3: large-scale production and diffusion......Page 72
2.4 Length of the Pre-diffusion Phases......Page 73
2.4.1 Method......Page 74
2.4.2.1 Length of the pre-diffusion phases for all cases......Page 75
2.4.2.2 Different scenarios for the pattern......Page 77
2.4.2.3 Differences in pattern across the five industries......Page 79
2.5.1 Introduction......Page 80
2.5.2 Method to assess factors......Page 81
2.5.3.2 Mechanisms by which these factors affect the delay between invention and large-scale diffusion......Page 82
2.6 Consequences of the Pre-diffusion Phases......Page 85
2.6.3 Consequence of the lack of good market research tools in the pre-diffusion phases......Page 86
2.7 Conclusions and Discussion......Page 88
2.7.1 Discussion......Page 89
Appendix......Page 91
References......Page 93
Websites Visited......Page 95
3.1 Introduction......Page 96
3.2.1 Adoption network acceptance......Page 99
3.2.2 Early adopters acceptance......Page 101
3.3 Research Methodology......Page 103
3.4.1.1 Interfirm relationships......Page 120
3.4.1.2 Timing......Page 123
3.4.1.3 Targeting and positioning......Page 124
3.4.2.1 Timing......Page 125
3.4.2.3 Product......Page 127
3.5 Conclusions......Page 129
References......Page 132
4.1.1 Easy to say, hard to put into practice!......Page 136
4.2 Understanding and Positioning the Launch of New Products and Services......Page 138
4.2.1 New product/service launch context......Page 139
4.3 The Ingredients of a Launch Strategy......Page 140
4.3.1.1 Firm strategy......Page 142
4.3.1.2 Market strategy......Page 146
Segmentation......Page 147
Timing......Page 148
Innovativeness/Newness/Novelty......Page 149
Competitive intensity (number of competitors)......Page 150
Competitive reaction......Page 151
4.3.2.1 Product decisions......Page 152
Breadth of the product line......Page 153
4.3.2.2 Pricing decisions......Page 154
4.3.2.3 Distribution decisions......Page 155
Sales force......Page 156
Personal and impersonal communications......Page 157
Sales promotion......Page 158
4.4 The Interrelationships of the Launch Decisions......Page 159
4.5 Conclusion......Page 165
References......Page 166
5.1 Introduction......Page 172
5.2 Branding and the Product Development Process......Page 174
5.3 The Network Process Perspective......Page 176
5.4 Branding......Page 178
5.5 The Empirical Study......Page 181
5.6 Case Analysis: Medico......Page 183
5.6.1.1 Problematization......Page 184
5.6.1.4 Spokespersons......Page 186
5.6.2.2 Devices of interessement......Page 187
5.6.2.3 Enrollment......Page 188
5.6.3 Effects on the identity prism of the Medico processes......Page 189
5.7 Case Analysis: Window......Page 191
5.7.1.1 Problematization......Page 192
5.7.1.4 Spokespersons......Page 194
5.7.2.1 Problematization......Page 195
5.7.2.3 Enrollment......Page 196
5.7.3 Effects on the identity prism of the Window processes......Page 197
5.8 Discussion......Page 198
5.9 Conclusion......Page 202
References......Page 204
6.1 Introduction......Page 210
6.2 Innovation-Related Characteristics and Consumer-Related Characteristics......Page 212
6.3 Consumer Adoption Process of Innovations......Page 216
6.4 Product Newness and the “Curse of Innovation”......Page 218
6.5 Consumption Experience and Usage......Page 222
6.6 Conclusions......Page 224
References......Page 226
7.1 Introduction......Page 230
7.2 Standard Setting: A Literature Review......Page 232
7.2.1 Stand-alone strategy......Page 234
7.2.2 Collaboration strategy......Page 235
7.2.3 SDO strategy......Page 237
7.3 The Empirical Study: de facto Standards in the Multimedia Industry......Page 238
7.4.1.1 Stand-alone strategy......Page 251
7.4.1.2 Collaboration strategy......Page 253
7.4.1.3 SDO strategy......Page 256
7.4.2 Towards a paradigmatic process of de facto standard setting......Page 258
7.5 Conclusions......Page 259
References......Page 261
Part II Sector-Specific Dynamics of Diffusion......Page 266
8.1 Introduction......Page 268
8.2 Innovation Models......Page 269
8.3 Health System Goals and Objectives......Page 271
8.4 How Regulation Influences the Diffusion of Innovations in Health Systems......Page 272
8.4.1.3 Reference pricing......Page 274
8.5.1 Generic entry and price competition......Page 277
8.5.2 Health technology assessment......Page 278
8.6.2 Cost sharing......Page 279
8.6.3 Drug budgets and prescribing limits......Page 280
8.7.1 General practice fundholding in the UK......Page 281
8.7.2 Managed care in the US......Page 282
8.8.2 Formularies......Page 283
8.9 Discussions and Conclusions......Page 284
References......Page 287
9.1 Introduction......Page 298
9.2 Diffusion of Technological Change......Page 299
9.3.1.1 Gompertz model......Page 302
9.3.1.2 Logistic model......Page 303
9.3.1.3 Bass model......Page 304
9.3.2.1 Gompertz model vs. logistic model......Page 305
9.3.2.2 Logistic model vs. Bass model......Page 306
9.3.2.3 Representative sample: China......Page 307
9.4 Drivers of Diffusion Rate......Page 309
9.4.1 Deregulation/market competition......Page 310
9.4.1.1 Representative sample: Taiwan......Page 314
9.4.3 Prepaid access......Page 316
9.4.4 Technological innovation......Page 317
9.4.6 Fixed-line telephony......Page 318
9.5.1 Diffusion model......Page 319
9.5.2 Drivers of diffusion rate......Page 320
9.6 Conclusions......Page 321
References......Page 323
10.1 Introduction......Page 328
10.2 Different PV Deployment Strategies......Page 332
10.2.1 Japan......Page 335
10.2.2 USA......Page 337
10.2.3 PV value chain issue......Page 338
10.3.1 Social technology and physical technology......Page 339
10.3.2 The nature of a physical technology......Page 341
10.4 A Technology Diffusion Framework to Understand the Differences in PV Deployment Models......Page 344
10.4.1 Diffusion analysis of Japan’s data......Page 345
10.4.2 Diffusion analysis of US data......Page 346
10.4.3 Analysis of the US pattern......Page 351
10.5.1 Discussion......Page 352
10.5.2 Conclusions and future work......Page 355
References......Page 357
Part III Prediction of Future Patterns of Diffusion......Page 362
11.2.1 Multi-criteria technology assessment......Page 364
11.2.2 Economic technology assessment......Page 366
11.2.4 Other emerging methods......Page 367
11.3 Technology Diffusion......Page 368
11.4 Determining Forecasting Methodology......Page 370
11.4.2 Analytical methods......Page 371
11.4.4 Modeling methods......Page 373
11.4.5 Emerging technology indicators......Page 374
11.5 Case Study......Page 377
References......Page 381
12.1 Introduction......Page 388
12.2 The Diffusion of a Single Innovation in a Single Market......Page 393
12.2.1 The use of explanatory variables in the diffusion model......Page 398
12.2.2.1 Estimation of the Bass model......Page 403
12.2.2.2 Use of diffusion models with little or no data......Page 408
12.2.3 Modeling constrained diffusion......Page 409
12.2.4 Modeling diffusion and replacement......Page 410
12.2.5 Modeling the diffusion of multiple subcategories......Page 412
12.2.6.1 Studies of comparative forecasting accuracy......Page 413
12.2.6.2 Use of prediction intervals......Page 415
12.2.7 Applications......Page 416
12.3 Modeling of Diffusion Across Several Countries......Page 417
12.3.2 Applications......Page 420
12.4 Modeling of Diffusion Across Several Generations of Technology......Page 421
12.4.1 Use of explanatory variables in multi-generation models......Page 423
12.4.2 Multi-technology models......Page 424
12.5 Conclusions and Likely Further Research......Page 425
References......Page 427
Models for Cumulative Adoption......Page 436
A12.3 Cumulative normal model:......Page 437
Log-logistic model:......Page 438
Local logistic model:......Page 439
A12.10 Floyd model:......Page 440
A12.13 SBB model:......Page 441
Index......Page 442