Food Insecurity & Hydroclimate in Greater Horn of Africa: Potential for Agriculture Amidst Extremes

Foreword
	References
Preface
Contents
Part I Food Insecurity in GHA: Potentials and Challenges
1 Food Insecurity: Causes and Eradication
	1.1 Greater Horn of Africa: Background
	1.2 Causes of Food Insecurity
		1.2.1 Poor Governance and the Donor Syndrome
		1.2.2 Natural Hazards
		1.2.3 Conflicts: Regional and Local
		1.2.4 Population Growth: Rural Urban Migration
		1.2.5 Poverty
	1.3 Famine Eradication: Proposed Strategies
		1.3.1 Good Governance and Donor Awakening
		1.3.2 Broadening and Maximizing Opportunities
	1.4 Potentials and Challenges
		1.4.1 Freshwater Potential
		1.4.2 Potential for Agriculture
		1.4.3 Hydroclimate Monitoring Network: Simply Insufficient
	1.5 Objectives and Aims of the Book
	1.6 Concluding Remarks
	References
2 Food Security in Blue Nile: Ethiopian GERD
	2.1 Summary
	2.2 The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam: Background
	2.3 Impacts on Food Security
		2.3.1 Ethiopia\'s Food Security
		2.3.2 Sudan\'s Food Security
		2.3.3 Egypt\'s Food Security
	2.4 Recommendations on Sustainable Utilization
	References
3 Earth Observation Remote Sensing
	3.1 GHA\'s Hydroclimate: Monitoring Products
	3.2 Optical and Microwave Remote Sensing
	3.3 Remote Sensing of Gravity Variations
		3.3.1 Mass Variation and Gravity
		3.3.2 High and Low Earth Orbiting Satellites
		3.3.3 Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment
	3.4 Gravity Field and Changes in Stored Water
		3.4.1 Gravity Field Changes and the Hydrological Processes
		3.4.2 Monitoring Variation in Stored Water Using Temporal Gravity Field
	3.5 Satellite Altimetry
		3.5.1 Remote Sensing with Satellite Altimetry
		3.5.2  Satellite Altimetry Missions
	3.6 CHAMP Radio Occultation Satellite
	3.7 Concluding Remarks
	References
Part II Water Resources
4 Global Freshwater Resources
	4.1 Diminishing Freshwater Resources
		4.1.1 Status
		4.1.2 Water Scarcity
		4.1.3 Impacts of Climate Variability/Change on Freshwater
		4.1.4 Water-Poverty-Environment Nexus
	4.2 Water Resource Monitoring
		4.2.1 Need for Monitoring
		4.2.2 Monitoring of Stored Water at Basin Scales
	4.3 Importance of Monitoring GHA\'s Stored Water
	References
5 GHA\'s Greatest Freshwater Source: Victoria
	5.1 Summary
	5.2 Features of the Lake and Its Environs
		5.2.1 The Origin
		5.2.2 The Name ``Lake Victoria\'\'
		5.2.3  Lake Victoria Basin: Physical Description
	5.3 Population and Demographic Features
		5.3.1 Historical Perspective of Early Settlements
		5.3.2 Impacts of Colonialism
	5.4  GHA\'s Precious Lake: Benefits and Challenges
	5.5 Fluctuations: Climatic or Anthropogenic Induced?
	5.6 Concluding Remarks
	References
6 GHA\'s Water Tower: Ethiopian Highlands
	6.1 Summary
	6.2 Ethiopian Hydrogeological Regimes: Characterization
	6.3 Ethiopian Highlands: Background
		6.3.1 Location
		6.3.2 Climate
	6.4 Satellite-Hydrological Model Products: Analysis
		6.4.1 Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE)
		6.4.2 Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS)
		6.4.3 Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM)
		6.4.4 Analysis Methods
		6.4.5 Groundwater Changes from GRACE and GLDAS
		6.4.6 Total Water Storage Duration Curve (TDC) and Total Storage Deficit (TSD)
		6.4.7 Statistical Analysis: Correlation and PCA
	6.5 Hydrogeological Characterization
		6.5.1 Dominant Variability of Water-Storage over Ethiopia
		6.5.2 Annual and Seasonal Mean TWS Changes
		6.5.3 Inter-annual Variation
		6.5.4 Intra-annual Variation
		6.5.5 Correlation Between Different Data Sets
		6.5.6 Rainfall and Water Storage Changes: Relationship
		6.5.7 Topographic Impact on TWS
		6.5.8 Possible Human Influence on the Observed TWS
		6.5.9 Climate Impact on the Observed TWS
	6.6 Concluding Remarks
	References
Part III Extreme Climate: Drought
7 Rainfall-SST Fluctuation: Predictability
	7.1 Summary
	7.2 Decadal Fluctuation in Climate System
	7.3 Climate Products and Analysis Methods
		7.3.1 Analysis Methods
	7.4 Rainfall and Sea Surface Temperature Variability
	7.5 Rainfall Seasonal Variability
		7.5.1 The Short October–December (OND) Rainfall
		7.5.2 The Long March–May (MAM) Rainfall
		7.5.3 The Dry June–July (JJA) Rainfall
	7.6 Sea Surface Seasonal Temperature Variability
	7.7 Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA)
		7.7.1 CCA of the MAM Rainfall Seasons
		7.7.2 CCA of JJA Rainfall Season
		7.7.3 CCA of OND Rainfall Season
	7.8 Concluding Remarks
	References
8 Decadal Rainfall Variability: Link to Oceans
	8.1 Summary
	8.2 Need for Decadal Climate Variability Information
	8.3 Climate Products and the Analysis Approach
		8.3.1 Observed Climate Product
		8.3.2 Spectral Analysis
		8.3.3 VARIMAX-Rotated Principal Component Analysis
		8.3.4 Singular Value Decomposition
	8.4 Decadal Rainfall Variability: Delineation and Linkage to SST
		8.4.1 Delineation of East Africa into Climatic Zones
		8.4.2 Links to Global SSTs
		8.4.3 The Three Oceans Versus MAM Modes
		8.4.4 The Three Oceans Versus OND Modes
		8.4.5 The Three Oceans Versus JJA Modes
	8.5 Decadal Rainfall Variability versus Food Security
	References
9 Extreme Temperatures and Precipitation
	9.1 Summary
	9.2 Temperatures and Precipitation: Background
	9.3 Hydroclimate Products and the Analysis Methods
		9.3.1 Station Data and Quality Control
		9.3.2 Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE)
		9.3.3 Extreme Climate Analysis: Trend and Indices
		9.3.4 Modelling of Extreme Rainfall and Temperature
		9.3.5 Advanced Statistical Analysis of GRACE\'s Water Storage Products
	9.4 Temperature and Precipitation Trends
		9.4.1 Trends in Temperature Indices
		9.4.2 Trends in Precipitation Indices
		9.4.3 Relationship Between Precipitation and TWS Changes
	9.5 Modelling Precipitation Extremes
	9.6 Regional Climate Models: Assessment for GHA
	9.7 Concluding Remarks
	References
10 GHA Droughts: Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Phenomena
	10.1 Summary
	10.2 Frequently Recurring GHA\'s Droughts: Challenges
	10.3 Centennial Precipitation and SST Products
	10.4 Drought Characterization Approach
		10.4.1 Identification of Drought Events
		10.4.2 Modelling the Probability of Drought-Year Occurrences
		10.4.3 Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Phenomena Influencing Drought Occurrences
	10.5 Influence of Climate Variability Drivers
		10.5.1 Response to Drought Drivers Across GHA
		10.5.2 Reliability of ENSO in Drought Prediction
	10.6 GHA\'s Drought Characteristics
		10.6.1 Probability of Drought-Year Occurrences
		10.6.2 Duration of Drought Events
		10.6.3 Drought Areal-Extent
	10.7 Trends in Rainfall
	10.8 Summary of GHA\'s Drought Characteristics
	10.9 Concluding Remarks
	References
11 Extreme Climate: Food Security in GHA
	11.1 Summary
	11.2 Droughts and Floods: Threat to Food Security
	11.3 Drought Resistant Crops and the Planting Seasons
	11.4 Drought Analysis
		11.4.1 Determination of Drought Years
		11.4.2 Standardization of Data
		11.4.3 Data Analysis Methods
	11.5 Drought Years and Food Security
		11.5.1 Drought Years
		11.5.2 Drought in Relation to Food Security
	11.6 Concluding Remarks
	References
12 Hydrometeorological Droughts over GHA
	12.1 Summary
	12.2 Greater Horn of Africa\'s Drought
	12.3 Hydrometeorological Products
		12.3.1 Precipitation Products
		12.3.2 Water Storage Change Products
		12.3.3 Reanalysis Products
	12.4 Hydro-Meteorological Drought Indices
		12.4.1 Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)
		12.4.2 Total Storage Deficit Index (TSDI)
		12.4.3 Spatial Independent Component Analysis
	12.5 Hydrometeorological Drought Characterization
		12.5.1 Changes in Precipitation and TWS
		12.5.2 Spatio-Temporal Drought Patterns over GHA
	12.6 Hydrometeorological Impacts on Aquatic Species
	References
Part IV Potential of Irrigated Agriculture in GHA
13 Potential for Irrigated Agriculture: Groundwater
	13.1 Summary
	13.2 GHA\'s Groundwater: Potential and Challenges
	13.3 GHA\'s Hydrogeology and Groundwater Data
		13.3.1 Hydrogeology
		13.3.2 Groundwater Monitoring Products
	13.4 Groundwater Changes and Agricultural Potential
		13.4.1 GRACE-Derived Groundwater Changes
	13.5 Groundwater Changes: Hydrological Model Evaluation
		13.5.1 Groundwater Sustainability
		13.5.2 Potential for Groundwater Irrigated Agriculture
	13.6 Spatio-Temporal Variability of Groundwater Changes
	13.7 Potential of Groundwater Irrigated Agriculture
	13.8 Concluding Remarks
	References
14 Agricultural Drought\'s Indicators: Assessment
	14.1 Summary
	14.2 East African Drought
	14.3 East Africa: Background and Drought Products
		14.3.1 GHA: The East African Part
		14.3.2 Agricultural Drought Characterization Products
		14.3.3 Precipitation Products
		14.3.4 Soil Moisture Products
		14.3.5 Total Water Storage (TWS)
		14.3.6 Vegetation Condition Index (VCI)
		14.3.7 National Annual Crop Production
	14.4 Agricultural Drought Characterization
		14.4.1 Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)
		14.4.2 Standardized Anomalies (SA)
		14.4.3 Principal Component Analysis (PCA)
		14.4.4 Partial Least Squares Regression (PLSR)
	14.5 Spatio-Temporal Drought Patterns
		14.5.1 Spatial Variability
		14.5.2 Temporal Patterns
		14.5.3 Drought Intensity Area Analyses
	14.6 Effectiveness of Drought Indicators: Crop Production Assessment
	14.7 Concluding Remarks
	References
15 Drought Monitoring: Topography and Gauge Influence
	15.1 Summary
	15.2 Topographical and Rain Gauge Distribution
	15.3 Climatology of Upper GHA and Drought Indicators
		15.3.1 The Upper GHA
		15.3.2 Drought Indicators: Description of the Products
	15.4 Drought Characterization: Statistical Analysis
		15.4.1 Agricultural Drought Characterization
		15.4.2 Agricultural Drought and Their Consistencies
		15.4.3 Effectiveness of Drought Indicators over Ethiopia
	15.5 Drought Analysis
		15.5.1 Agricultural Drought Characterization
	15.6 Topographical and Rain-Gauge Density Influence
		15.6.1 Consistency of Areas Under Agricultural Drought
		15.6.2 Difference in Drought Intensities Between Products
		15.6.3 Agricultural Drought: Effectiveness of the Indicators
	15.7 Summarized Overview
	15.8 Concluding Remarks
	References
Index