Food Crises and the WTO: World Trade Forum

Cover......Page 1
Half-title......Page 3
Title......Page 5
Copyright......Page 6
Contents......Page 7
Contributors......Page 9
Figures......Page 11
Tables......Page 14
Abbreviations......Page 16
Preface......Page 19
1 Introduction: food crises and the WTO......Page 21
The end of poverty versus the end of low prices of food......Page 24
Structural and cyclical factors......Page 26
Small farm viability in a globalised economy......Page 27
Lack of Green Revolutions......Page 29
Climate change and food security......Page 30
Market trends and biofuels......Page 31
International trade and food security......Page 32
The end of the Doha ‘Development’ Round?......Page 34
Looking forward......Page 38
References......Page 39
Part I: Economics of the food crisis......Page 43
Introduction......Page 45
Impacts of food price changes on poverty in poor countries......Page 46
Why might results differ between studies?......Page 50
Country coverage......Page 51
Methodology......Page 52
Long-term impacts of food price rises on poverty......Page 55
What should policies be?......Page 56
What policy changes have occurred?......Page 59
Long-term policy changes......Page 60
Policy changes and the recent crisis......Page 61
The potential role of the WTO......Page 63
Summary......Page 64
References......Page 65
1. Introduction......Page 69
Agricultural prices (nominal)......Page 70
Commodity prices (nominal)......Page 74
Commodity prices (real)......Page 78
Preliminary summing up......Page 80
The run-up to the price events of the 1970s......Page 82
The aftermath of the increases in commodity prices and inflation of the 1970s......Page 85
Towards the price spike of the 2000s......Page 87
The aftermath of the 2007–2008 price event: cyclical considerations......Page 91
The aftermath of the 2007–2008 price event: possible trends......Page 95
4. Final reflections......Page 97
References......Page 99
Introduction......Page 101
The role of agriculture in Africa’s economic growth and development......Page 102
Africa faces a deepening food crisis......Page 103
How did Asia deal with its food crisis in the 1960s and 1970s?......Page 104
Technologies exist that can end the food crisis in Africa......Page 105
Negative effects of structural adjustment in Africa......Page 107
Political will for rural economic transformation......Page 109
Geopolitics of food......Page 110
What kinds of policies are needed to achieve a Green Revolution in Africa?......Page 111
Invest in raising agricultural productivity of staple food crops and expand value addition......Page 112
Develop rural input markets......Page 114
Adopt bold public policies to support poor farmers......Page 116
Provide equitable access to land and security of land tenure for farmers......Page 117
Invest in the next generation of farmers......Page 118
Concentrate investments in Africa’s breadbasket areas......Page 119
Develop and scale up innovative financing to leverage commercial banks to support agriculture......Page 120
Establish a ‘Global Fund for a Green Revolution in Africa’......Page 122
Develop crop insurance to reduce impacts of climate change on African agriculture......Page 123
Conclusions......Page 124
References......Page 126
What are the causes?......Page 129
Key cyclical factors......Page 130
Key structural factors......Page 132
What are the medium-term prospects?......Page 135
What if the assumptions are changed?......Page 139
What are the impacts on developing countries?......Page 141
Appropriate trade policy responses......Page 144
Policy responses of developing countries......Page 147
Agricultural policy reforms in OECD countries......Page 149
A reconsideration of biofuel support policies......Page 152
What are the key messages?......Page 153
References......Page 155
1. Introduction......Page 156
Supply-side factors......Page 158
Demand-side shocks......Page 163
Shifters of demand trends......Page 165
Shifters of supply trends......Page 166
Climate change scenarios......Page 168
Dimension 1: food availability......Page 170
Dimension 2: food stability......Page 172
Dimension 3: utilisation......Page 173
Dimension 4: access to food......Page 174
Quantifying the impact of climate change on food security......Page 176
4. Conclusion......Page 180
References......Page 181
Part 2 Trade and law: WTO and beyond......Page 185
7 Agricultural policies: past, present and prospective under Doha......Page 187
Worsening disarray until the 1980s, but then some reforms......Page 189
Key indicators of distortions to agricultural incentives......Page 190
Summary of estimates of distortions since the 1950s......Page 191
Effects of past reforms and of remaining policies: results of economy-wide modelling......Page 198
Prospects for agricultural reform under Doha......Page 201
References......Page 204
Introduction......Page 207
Agriculture in the EU......Page 208
Cereals......Page 209
Meat......Page 210
Agricultural imports into, and exports from, the EU......Page 212
Overview of EU imports......Page 214
Imports from developing countries......Page 216
Overview of EU exports......Page 217
EU market access......Page 219
Export programmes......Page 220
A brief history of the CAP to the present day......Page 222
CAP objectives......Page 223
CAP reform......Page 224
Direct payments......Page 226
Supply control......Page 227
Additional aspects of 2003 reform......Page 228
Import duties......Page 229
Import quota management......Page 230
Export refunds......Page 231
Responses to the food crisis......Page 232
Conclusions......Page 235
References......Page 237
Introduction......Page 240
US farm policy under the Uruguay Round......Page 241
Overview......Page 244
New revenue guarantees......Page 249
Other farm support programmes......Page 250
Nutrition and food aid......Page 252
Possible further WTO disciplines......Page 253
Future prospects......Page 256
References......Page 259
Introduction......Page 262
Trade patterns......Page 265
Terms of trade......Page 268
Short-term versus medium-term effects......Page 271
The promise of commodity agreements......Page 274
The importance of diversification......Page 276
The effect of past trade liberalisation......Page 278
Directions in ongoing trade negotiations......Page 281
Import restrictions on agricultural goods......Page 283
Export restrictions on agricultural goods......Page 285
Conclusions......Page 286
References......Page 290
Introduction......Page 293
Factors behind the recent food price rise......Page 295
The efficacy of food aid......Page 296
The ‘Marrakesh Decision’......Page 297
Trade policy measures to ameliorate short-erm threats to food security......Page 299
Existing mechanisms – IMF, World Bank and UN support......Page 300
Food stocks......Page 301
Cash support......Page 302
Evidence of aid practices......Page 303
Taking international trade theory seriously......Page 305
Preferences and Aid for Trade......Page 308
Fiscal and macroeconomic impact......Page 309
Trade reform and facilitating agricultural trade in developing countries......Page 310
Policy conclusions......Page 312
References......Page 313
1. Introduction......Page 317
Agricultural and trade policies in rich countries......Page 319
Impact on food-importing developing countries......Page 320
3. The Uruguay Round provisions and food security......Page 322
Market access......Page 323
Domestic support......Page 324
Export competition......Page 325
The Marrakesh Ministerial Decision on measures concerning the possible negative effects of the reform programme on least-developed and net food-importing developing countries (NFIDCs)......Page 327
4. Would the Doha Round results, as currently envisaged, improve or diminish food security?......Page 328
Market access......Page 330
Domestic support......Page 332
Export subsidies......Page 334
Export credits......Page 335
Food Aid......Page 336
Export prohibitions and restrictions and differential export taxes......Page 337
5. Summing up: policy recommendations......Page 339
References......Page 342
13 Conclusions and policy recommendations......Page 343
1. Different price hike impacts on poverty call for differentiated solutions......Page 344
2. Invest in small farms throughout the developing world......Page 345
4. Invest in new-eneration technologies designed to address local variations......Page 347
5. Develop new institutional approaches, including public–private partnerships, to enhance research, development and extension services......Page 348
6. Develop new institutional approaches addressing food insecurity in the context of new political and economic challenges......Page 349
7. Provide food aid as a short-term response......Page 350
8. Carefully negotiate the new forms of foreign direct investment in agriculture......Page 351
9. Reconsider biofuels support policies......Page 353
10. Take into account environmental challenges, prioritise climate change adaptation......Page 354
12. Reform the WTO rules in agriculture relevant to food security......Page 355
13. Provide more market access to stimulate production in competitive developing countries......Page 356
14. Reduce developed country domestic support......Page 357
15. Eliminate export competition instruments......Page 358
17. Replace anti-agricultural biases with aid for trade......Page 359
19. Conclude the Doha Round – wisely......Page 360
20. Invest in global public goods......Page 361
The way forward......Page 362
References......Page 364
Index......Page 367