Epidemiology and Demography in Public Health

Epidemiology and Demography in Public Health......Page 4
Copyright Page......Page 5
Contents......Page 6
Contributors......Page 10
Preface......Page 14
Section 1: Overview of History, Concepts, Principles and Methods......Page 18
Definition of Epidemiology......Page 19
Ancient Roots......Page 20
The Fight Against the Great Plagues......Page 22
The Search for the Cause of Syphilis......Page 23
Smallpox: Pitfalls and Victory......Page 24
The Epidemiological Avenue......Page 25
Evidence-Based Epidemiology......Page 26
Cholera, Right or Wrong......Page 27
The Public Health Perspective......Page 29
Registry-Based Epidemiology......Page 30
Causality in the Era of Microbiology......Page 32
Vitamins and the Web of Causation......Page 34
Future Directions......Page 36
Relevant Websites......Page 37
Health, Illness, and Disease......Page 38
Disease Prevention......Page 39
Health Promotion......Page 40
Introduction......Page 41
Global Burden of Disease Studies......Page 42
The DALY - Construction and Concepts......Page 43
Estimation of Mortality Levels and Causes of Death......Page 44
Global and Regional Mortality in 2002......Page 45
Leading Causes of Disability......Page 46
Applications of Burden of Disease Analysis......Page 49
Criticisms and Controversies......Page 51
Citations......Page 53
Use......Page 54
Classifications and Terminologies......Page 55
Losing Detail - Gaining Overview......Page 56
Diagnostic Accuracy......Page 57
International Classification of Diseases (ICD)......Page 58
Modifications and Adaptations......Page 59
Relevant Websites......Page 60
Epistemological State of Mental Health Classifications......Page 61
ICD-10 System of Classification of Mental Disorders......Page 62
Threshold for Illness......Page 63
Atheoretical Approach......Page 64
Categorical and Dimensional Models......Page 65
Citations......Page 66
Population Measurement of Psychiatric and Psychological Disorders and Outcomes......Page 67
Purposes of epidemiological methods (epidemiological estimates, modeling determinants, treatment planning, and needs assessment......Page 68
Design Issues......Page 69
Screening and full assessment......Page 70
Case Control Studies......Page 71
Services......Page 72
Self-report questionnaires......Page 73
Diagnostic interviews......Page 74
Measurement of Specific Disorders......Page 75
Application of Measurement Methods in Public Health Contexts (e.g. Surveillance and Screening in Health Settings)......Page 76
Citations......Page 77
Relevant Websites......Page 78
Descriptive Studies......Page 79
Case-Control Studies......Page 80
Prospective cohort studies......Page 82
Cross-sectional studies......Page 83
Ecologic studies......Page 84
Relative Risk......Page 85
Attributable Fraction......Page 86
Selection Bias......Page 87
Guidelines for Assessing Causation from Observational Studies......Page 88
Citations......Page 89
Conditions and Diseases......Page 90
Sources of Information......Page 91
Measuring Function and Disability......Page 92
Determinants of Health......Page 93
Longitudinal Designs......Page 94
Data Linkage......Page 95
Further Reading......Page 96
Rationale for Conducting a Clinical Trial......Page 97
Ethical and Safety Oversight......Page 98
Study Design......Page 99
Interventions......Page 101
Outcomes......Page 102
Allocation of Treatments, Randomization, and Blinding......Page 103
Adverse Events and Harms......Page 104
Interpretation......Page 105
Further Reading......Page 106
Historical Development......Page 107
Rewards......Page 108
Laboratory Diagnosis and Surveillance System......Page 109
International Sentinel Surveillance......Page 110
Smallpox Eradication and Its Surveillance System......Page 112
Surveillance of animal influenza......Page 114
Measles and Rubella Surveillance......Page 115
Surveillance on risk factors for noncommunicable diseases......Page 116
Global Surveillance Network......Page 117
See also......Page 119
Relevant Websites......Page 120
Resurgent (Re-emerging) Diseases......Page 121
Legionellosis (Legionnaires Disease)......Page 122
Toxic Shock Syndrome......Page 123
Hemorrhagic Fevers......Page 124
Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy......Page 125
SARS......Page 126
Avian Influenza......Page 127
Social Causes of Emerging Infectious Diseases......Page 128
Predictions Realized......Page 129
Antimicrobial Resistance......Page 130
Further Reading......Page 131
Multiple Factors Involved......Page 132
Resistance......Page 133
Strains, serotypes, serogroups, subtypes......Page 134
Abundance......Page 135
Outbreaks of vaccine-preventable infections......Page 136
Tuberculosis......Page 137
Malaria......Page 138
Dengue and mosquito vectors......Page 139
Citations......Page 140
Background......Page 141
Influenza: A Recurring Emergence......Page 142
A New Environment, New Rules?......Page 143
Changes in Land Use......Page 144
Deforestation/Reforestation......Page 145
Extending Production Chains......Page 146
Xenotransplantation: Technology as a Factor in Emergence......Page 147
Microbial Change: Antibiotic Selective Pressure......Page 148
Antibiotics in Humans: Are Prescriptions Useful?......Page 149
Further Reading......Page 152
Age......Page 153
Major Modifiable Factors......Page 154
Blood Lipids......Page 155
Diabetes Mellitus......Page 156
Stress......Page 157
Multiple Risk Factors......Page 158
Practical Steps for Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease......Page 159
Conclusion......Page 160
Introduction......Page 161
Outbreak Detection......Page 162
Organizing an Outbreak Investigation......Page 163
Objectives for an Investigation......Page 164
Confirmation of an Outbreak......Page 165
Case Ascertainment......Page 166
Descriptive Epidemiology......Page 167
Testing of the Hypothesis......Page 168
Communication......Page 171
See also......Page 172
Relevant Websites......Page 173
Collective Informed Consent......Page 174
The Challenge of Building Trust......Page 175
Transparency in State Actions and Decision- making......Page 177
Consensus-building and Community Involvement......Page 178
Toward Successful Governance of Epidemics......Page 179
Conclusion......Page 181
References......Page 182
The SIR Model and the Basic Reproduction Number R0......Page 184
Basic Concepts: Reproduction Number, Endemic Steady State, and Critical Vaccination Coverage......Page 185
Advanced Models......Page 187
Network Models......Page 188
Citations......Page 189
Why and When to Use Modeling......Page 190
Research Question and Model Structure......Page 191
Population Models......Page 193
Actual Models......Page 194
Citations......Page 195
Cancers Suitable for Screening......Page 196
Validity of Screening......Page 197
Predictive Values of a Screening Test......Page 198
Evaluating the Effect of Screening......Page 199
Organizing a Screening Program......Page 200
Screening with cervical smears......Page 201
Other screening tests......Page 202
Effectiveness of screening......Page 203
Service screening......Page 204
Other screening tests......Page 205
Adverse effects of screening......Page 206
Effectiveness of screening......Page 207
Prostate cancer screening based on PSA......Page 208
Screening for other cancers......Page 209
Cancer Screening Guidelines......Page 210
Citations......Page 211
Generic versus Targeted HRQOL Profile Measures......Page 212
Summary Scores for HRQOL Profile Measures......Page 213
Conceptual/Measurement Model......Page 214
Reliability......Page 215
Validity......Page 216
Minimally Important Difference and the Interpretation of Scores......Page 217
Availability in Alternate Forms......Page 218
Translations......Page 219
Use of Measures in Research, Population Surveillance, and Clinical Practice......Page 220
Citations......Page 221
Further Reading......Page 222
The Core Questions to Address When Valuing Health States......Page 223
How Should Health Be Described?......Page 224
The Standard Gamble (SG)......Page 225
Visual Analogue Scales (EQ VAS)......Page 226
Time Trade-Off......Page 227
The Use of Ordinal Techniques......Page 228
Why Use Patient Values?......Page 229
Comparison of Measures......Page 230
Further Reading......Page 231
Objective and Subjective QOL......Page 232
Child Self-Report and Parent-Proxy......Page 233
Domains of QOL......Page 234
Economic Evaluation......Page 235
Quality-Adjusted Life Years......Page 236
Sensitivity to Change......Page 237
Further Reading......Page 238
Systematic Reviews and Their Contribution to Evidence-Based Public Health......Page 239
Searching the Public Health Literature......Page 240
Sustainability......Page 241
Citations......Page 242
Relevant Websites......Page 243
Section 2: Fields of Epidemiology......Page 244
A Brief History of Clinical Epidemiology......Page 245
Clinical Epidemiology's Detractors......Page 246
Evolutions 2 and 3: The Critical Appraisal, Storage, and Retrieval of Evidence......Page 247
Further Reading......Page 248
Environmental Epidemiology......Page 249
Occupational Epidemiology......Page 250
Incidence Studies......Page 251
Prevalence Case-Control Studies......Page 252
Subjective Measures of Exposure......Page 253
Sampling: When and How Often?......Page 254
Bias......Page 255
Interpretation of Environmental and Occupational Epidemiology Studies......Page 256
Further Reading......Page 257
Introduction......Page 258
Socioeconomic Factors During the Modern Risk Factor Era......Page 259
Socioeconomic Position......Page 260
Measurement of socioeconomic position and health outcomes......Page 261
Explanations for the General Association......Page 262
Social Connections......Page 264
Discrimination......Page 265
Levels of Social Organization......Page 266
Diachronic Processes......Page 267
Citations......Page 268
Introduction......Page 269
Globalization and Its Consequences......Page 270
The Epidemiology of Poverty and Inequity......Page 271
Inequalities, Inequity and Structural Violence......Page 272
Research Challenges for Improving Global Health and the Role of Epidemiology......Page 273
Researchers as Advocates for Change......Page 274
Introduction......Page 275
Why Cultural Epidemiology Matters......Page 276
The importance of fieldwork......Page 277
Social and cultural causes and patterning of symptoms......Page 278
Measuring......Page 279
Multilevel Analysis......Page 280
Conclusion......Page 281
Further Reading......Page 282
Research Strategies......Page 283
First Step: Detecting the Influence of Genes......Page 284
Association Studies......Page 285
Third Step: Gene Characterization......Page 286
Further Reading......Page 287
The Presence and Number of Teeth......Page 288
Periodontal Diseases......Page 289
Subjective Assessments......Page 290
Dental Caries......Page 291
Disparities......Page 292
Oral Cancer......Page 293
Relevant Websites......Page 294
Carcinogenic Effects of Tobacco......Page 295
The Effects of Diet and Overweight......Page 297
Viruses, Bacteria, and Parasites......Page 298
Occupational and Environmental Carcinogens......Page 299
Familial Risks for Common Cancers......Page 300
The Future of Cancer Epidemiology......Page 301
Current Priorities in Cancer Prevention......Page 302
Background......Page 303
History......Page 304
Terms......Page 305
Instrument development......Page 306
Cohort study......Page 307
WHO World Mental Health Surveys......Page 308
Data on Mental Illness and Substance Use Disorders......Page 309
Burden of Disease Data......Page 310
Assessments and Methods......Page 311
Further Reading......Page 312
Definitions and Definitional Pitfalls......Page 313
Perinatal Mortality......Page 314
Causes of Perinatal Death......Page 315
Perinatal Audit......Page 316
Perinatal Risk Factors......Page 317
Analytical Studies......Page 318
Recurrence Risk......Page 319
Citations......Page 320
Section 3: Epidemiology of Specific Diseases......Page 322
Heredity......Page 323
Link with Obesity......Page 324
Changes in Diet......Page 325
South and Central America......Page 326
Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East......Page 327
Health Care......Page 328
Marketing and Media......Page 329
Injuries: The Theoretical Definition......Page 330
Commonly Used Terms in Injury Research and Prevention......Page 331
Classifications and Coding Systems......Page 332
Home and leisure injuries......Page 333
Injury Data Collection and Data Sources......Page 334
Incidence and prevalence of injuries......Page 335
Anatomic Profile......Page 336
The burden of injuries worldwide......Page 337
Time trends......Page 338
Estimating the preventable fraction of injuries......Page 340
Socioeconomic Factors......Page 341
Haddon's Injury Prevention Model......Page 342
Injury Prevention Approaches......Page 344
Citations......Page 345
Introduction......Page 346
Case Notifications......Page 347
Estimated Incidence and Mortality......Page 349
TB/HIV......Page 351
Drug-Resistant Tuberculosis......Page 353
Economic Burden of TB......Page 354
Relevant Websites......Page 355
HIV-1 Groups and Subtypes......Page 356
Sexual Transmission......Page 358
Transmission via Injection Drug Use (IDU)......Page 361
Mother-to-Child Transmission......Page 362
Occupational Exposure and HIV Transmission Risk......Page 363
West and Central Africa......Page 364
Eastern Europe and Central Asia......Page 365
Citations......Page 366
History of Viral Isolation and Viral Characteristics......Page 369
Pandemic Influenza......Page 371
Epidemiology: Disease Distribution and Surveillance......Page 373
Influenza Control......Page 374
Vaccines......Page 375
Vaccine Strategies......Page 376
Further Reading......Page 377
Relevant Websites......Page 378
Section 4: Demography......Page 380
The Classical Outlook......Page 381
Current Extensions......Page 382
Citations......Page 383
Population Projections......Page 384
Contraceptive Prevalence......Page 385
Mortality from HIV/AIDS and Other Infectious Diseases......Page 387
Government Policies......Page 388
Health......Page 389
Natural Resources......Page 390
Conclusion......Page 391
Relevant Websites......Page 392
Trends in Industrialized Countries......Page 393
Trends in Developing Regions......Page 395
Introduction......Page 399
Area Under a Survival Curve......Page 400
Event-Free LE......Page 404
Determinants of the Magnitude of Gains in LE......Page 405
Perceptual Difficulties......Page 406
The DEALE......Page 407
Extensions to the DEALE......Page 408
The GAME Approximation......Page 409
Conclusions Regarding the Closed-Form Approaches......Page 410
Parametric LE Estimation Using Markov Processes......Page 411
Nonparametric LE Estimation......Page 412
Citations......Page 413
Introduction......Page 414
Active Life Expectancy: Definition and Operationalization......Page 416
Cross-National Implications of ALE/LE Ratio Differences......Page 418
Longitudinal Methods for Calculating Active Life Expectancy......Page 419
Empirical Example of Longitudinal Active- Life-Expectancy Calculations......Page 422
Further Reading......Page 425
Demographic and Epidemiologic Transitions......Page 426
Population Aging......Page 427
The Elderly as a Subpopulation......Page 430
Further Reading......Page 431
Worldwide Variations in Life Expectancy......Page 432
Studies Showing Taller People Have Greater Longevity......Page 433
Animal Findings......Page 434
Conclusion......Page 435
Further Reading......Page 436
Number of Migrants Globally and Sex Distribution......Page 437
Migration and Health......Page 438
Exposures in Country of Immigration......Page 439
Social Class......Page 440
Psychosocial Problems Particular to Migrants......Page 441
Migration and Aging......Page 442
Challenges for Public Health in Countries of Immigration......Page 443
Citations......Page 444
Section 5: Biostatistics......Page 446
Descriptive Statistics in Public Health......Page 447
Descriptive Statistics - Some Comments on Methods......Page 448
Populations and Samples......Page 449
Randomness......Page 450
Sampling Variation and Confidence Intervals......Page 451
Tests for Statistical Significance (Testing Hypotheses)......Page 452
An Example of Hypothesis Testing with Discrete (Binomial) Data......Page 453
Sample Size and Statistical Significance......Page 454
Assuming an observed association implies causality......Page 455
Relevant Websites......Page 456
Literature Search and Sources of Evidence......Page 457
Statistical Methods: Heterogeneity......Page 458
Statistical Methods: Combining Binary and Dichotomous Data......Page 459
Bias......Page 460
Meta-Regression......Page 461
Meta-Analysis of Diagnostic Test Studies......Page 462
Meta-Analysis of Observational Studies......Page 463
Further Reading......Page 464
Relevant Websites......Page 465
Section 6: Ethical Issues......Page 466
Key Ethical Issues......Page 467
Duty to Respect the Community......Page 468
Duty to Leave Community Better Off......Page 469
Conclusion......Page 470
Introduction......Page 471
The Functions of Codes of Ethics......Page 472
Codes of Ethics in Public Health......Page 473
Relations Between Various Codes Within Public Health......Page 474
Citations......Page 475
General Principles for Mass Screening Programs......Page 476
Voluntary Versus Mandatory Screening......Page 477
Benefits and Risks of Screening......Page 478
Newborn Screening and Prenatal Diagnosis......Page 479
Citations......Page 480
Introduction......Page 481
Harm Reduction Approaches and Health Promotion......Page 482
Ethical Issues in Communication Tactics and Persuasive Appeals......Page 483
Denial of Gratifications......Page 484
Further Reading......Page 485
Subject Index......Page 486