Enhancing Regional Trade Integration in Southeast Europe (World Bank Working Papers)

Contents......Page 4
Acknowledgments......Page 8
Foreword......Page 9
Acronyms and Abbreviations......Page 11
Executive Summary......Page 13
Part I: Evolution of Intra-regional Trade in Southeast Europe: The Role of CEFTA for Enhancing Regional Trade Integration......Page 18
Abstract......Page 19
1. Introduction......Page 20
Box 2.1. The “New” CEFTA......Page 22
Figure 2.1. Exports of CEFTA Members to Other Members, in US$ Million......Page 24
Figure 2.3. Decomposition of Export Growth of CEFTA Countries: 2000–07......Page 28
Box 2.3. Inter-industry and Intra-industry Trade......Page 32
Table 2.9. SEE Mirror Gap Statistics: Difference between Imports and Exports (in Percent)......Page 35
Technical Regulations and Standards......Page 39
Box 3.3. Import-Restricting Measures between Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, and Serbia......Page 46
Cost and Quality of Trade Logistics......Page 52
Box 3.6. The Benefits of Diagonal Cumulation......Page 55
The Case of Agrokor......Page 58
The Case of ArcelorMittal......Page 59
5. Conclusions and Recommendations......Page 61
Annex I.A. Trade Structure by HS-2 Product Category in 2007......Page 63
Annex I.B. Trade Structure by HS-2 Product Category in 2008......Page 65
Annex I.C. Net Exports to CEFTA, the Top and Bottom Five HS 2-digit Products in 2008......Page 67
Annex I.D. Description of 2-digit HS Categories......Page 68
Part II: Labor Mobility in Southeast Europe......Page 70
Abstract......Page 71
6. Introduction......Page 72
Table 7.1. CEFTA Population Indicators: 2008, 2025......Page 73
Figure 7.1: GDP Per Capita 2007 (PPP International Dollars)......Page 75
Figure 7.5. Net Migration Rates 1950–2005......Page 78
Migrants’ Education Levels......Page 81
Figure 7.7. Migrant Stock as Percent of Population......Page 83
Table 7.7. CEFTA Diaspora in CEFTA Countries: (2000–05)......Page 85
Figure 7.8. Gross Remittance Receipts per Capita US$......Page 86
Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC)......Page 88
Caribbean Community (CARICOM)......Page 89
East Africa Community (EAC)......Page 91
Mercado Comun del Sur (Mercosur)......Page 92
European Union (EU)......Page 93
Lessons from Labor Mobility Provisions of FTAs......Page 96
Overall Production and Productivity......Page 100
The Distribution of Benefits and Costs......Page 101
The Transition to EU Requirements......Page 103
Table 10.1. Intra-SEE Visa Requirements......Page 104
Table 10.2. Shadow Economy, 2002–03 (Percent of GDP)......Page 106
Credential Recognition, Social Security, Other Issues......Page 107
11. Conclusions......Page 109
Part III: The Impact of Establishing a Virtual Customs Union between Southeast Europe and the European Union......Page 112
Abstract......Page 113
12. Introduction......Page 114
13. Customs Union versus a Virtual Customs Union......Page 118
Table 14.1. Summary of MFN Applied Tariff Profiles of the Western Balkans and the EU, Non-agricultural Goods (Percent of Tariff Lines), 2007......Page 123
The Level of Adjustment......Page 124
15. Estimates of Trade Diversion and Trade Creation Due to Adoption of EU’s CET......Page 134
Breakdown of Trade Diversion and Creation among Trade Partners......Page 138
16. Summary and Policy Recommendations......Page 142
Appendix: Consumer Surplus by Product and Country......Page 146
References......Page 152
Table 2.2. Quarterly Imports from CEFTA Parties, in € Million......Page 23
Table 2.4. Intra-regional imports in 2008, in € Million......Page 25
Table2.5. Top Five Export Products (4-digit SITC level), Share in Total......Page 30
Table 2.6. SEE’s Export Structure to CEFTA and EU Partners in 2007......Page 31
Figure 2.5. EU-10’s IIT Share......Page 33
Table 2.8. Industries (at 2-Digit Product Level) with Largest Share of Intra-industry Trade in SEE......Page 34
Table 2.10. Difference between Imports and Exports (in Percent) for 2000–06 Period for Selected Trade Relationships......Page 36
Table 3.1. Progress in Convergence to EU Standards......Page 41
Table 3.2. Number of Firms Using ISO Standards at the End of 2007......Page 42
Table 3.3. Doing Business 2010 Rankings in the Area of Trade......Page 48
Table 3.4. BEEPS 2008 Results......Page 51
Figure 3.3. Trade Logistics Performance, SEE and EU-10 Countries......Page 53
Table 7.2. CEFTA: Economically Active Population, 2005–2020 (thousands)......Page 74
Table 7.5. Expatriate Adults in the OECD Countries by Education: 2000......Page 82
Table 7.6. Migrant Stock in CEFTA Countries: 2000 (Percent)......Page 84
Table 13.1. Southeast Europe and Stabilization and Association Agreements......Page 122
Table 14.2. Pre-Reform and After Reform Average and Weighted Tariffs......Page 125
Table 14.3. Albania: Adjustment to EU’s CET......Page 126
Table 14.5. Croatia: Adjustment to EU’s CET......Page 127
Table 14.7. Montenegro: Adjustment to EU’s CET......Page 128
Table 14.9. Albania: Tariffs and Imports by Product Groups......Page 129
Table 14.21. Croatia: Tariffs and imports by Product Groups......Page 130
Table 14.23. Montenegro: Tariffs and Imports by Product Groups......Page 131
Table 14.24. Serbia: Tariffs and Imports by Product Groups......Page 132
Table 14.25. EU: Tariffs and Imports by Product Groups......Page 133
Table 15.1. Summary of Simulation Results (US$ millions)......Page 136
Table 15.2. Tariff Revenue in SEE (LCU million)......Page 137
Table 15.4. Trade Creation......Page 139
Table 15.6 Impact of EU SEE Customs Union on Intra-regional Exports (US$ million)......Page 140
Figure 2.2. Intra-regional Imports by HS 2-Digit Product Category......Page 26
Figure 2.4. Decomposition of Export Growth in SEE by Sub-period, 2000–04 (Top) and 2004–07 (Bottom)......Page 29
Figure 2.6. Trade between Bosnia and Herzegovina and Croatia......Page 37
Figure 3.1. Share of Agriculture Exports and Imports in Total to CEFTA in 2008......Page 44
Figure 3.2. WEF’s Enabling Trade Index 2009......Page 50
Box 3.5. Logistics Costs in Albania......Page 54
Figure 7.2. Indices of Total Employment (2003=100)......Page 76
Figure 7.4. Unemployment Rates among Males, Females, and Youths......Page 77
Figure 7.6. Refugee Population from Bosnia and Herzegovina......Page 79
Figure 13.1. Turkey’s Exports and Imports 1986–2008 (US$ millions)......Page 121
Box 2.2. The Impact of the Crisis on Trade Flows in SEE......Page 27
Box 3.1. How Technical Standards and Regulations Can Be an Obstacle to Trade......Page 40
Box 3.2. CEFTA on Technical Barriers to Trade......Page 43
Box 3.4. Single Customs Window in FYR Macedonia......Page 49