Energy: Supply and Demand

Contents
Preface
1 Preliminaries
	1.1 Plan of the Book
	1.2 Units
		1.2.1 Capacity Factors
		1.2.2 Payback Times
	1.3 Efficiency
		1.3.1 Conservation and Efficiency
		1.3.2 The Jevons Paradox
	1.4 Energy Production
		1.4.1 The Alternatives
		1.4.2 Per-Person Consumption
	1.5 Population
		1.5.1 Doubling Times
		1.5.2 The United Nations Projections
		1.5.3 Growth-Rate Plots
	1.6 Energy and the Economy
		1.6.1 Oil Consumption and GDP
		1.6.2 Electricity Generation and GDP
		1.6.3 Electricity Access and Poverty
	1.7 Agriculture
		1.7.1 Life Expectancy and the Green Revolution
		1.7.2 Thomas Malthus on Population
	1.8 Fossil-Fuel Independence
		1.8.1 Europe Turns toward the New Alternatives
		1.8.2 Calculating Annualized Growth Rates
	1.9 Carbon-Dioxide Emissions
		1.9.1 The Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement
		1.9.2 Fossil-Fuel Production and Carbon-Dioxide Levels
	Concepts to Review
	Problems
	Further Reading
2 Horses, Whales, and Wood
	2.1 Horses
		2.1.1 Horses and Mules at Work
		2.1.2 The Transition from Horses and Mules to Tractors and Cars
	2.2 Whales
		2.2.1 Yankee Whalers
		2.2.2 Whale Oil and Kerosene
		2.2.3 A Logistic Model for Whale Oil Production
		2.2.4 The Sperm Candle Lighting Efficacy Standard
	2.3 Wood
		2.3.1 Wood Fuel and Industrial Roundwood Production
		2.3.2 Charcoal and Wood Gas
		2.3.3 The Transition from Wood to Coal
		2.3.4 Timber Density
	2.4 The Norse Greenland Colony
		2.4.1 The Greenland Colony and Climate
		2.4.2 The Inuit in Greenland
		Concepts to Review
		Problems
		Further Reading
3 Models
	3.1 Introduction
		3.1.1 Types of Statements about the Future
		3.1.2 The R/P Ratio
	3.2 The Decaying Exponential Model
		3.2.1 The Prudhoe Bay Oil Field
		3.2.2 The Laherrere Linearization for Prudhoe Bay
	3.3 The Logistic Model
		3.3.1 The Hubbert Linearization
		3.3.2 The Logit Transform Linearization
	3.4 Reserves, Resources, and Occurrences
		3.4.1 Original Reserves
		3.4.2 Oil Reserves History
		3.4.3 Coal Resources History
	3.5 An Economic Model
	3.6 Statistical Formulas
	Concepts to Review
	Problems
	Further Reading
4 Coal
	4.1 Introduction
		4.1.1 Coal consumption
		4.1.2 Coal in Electricity Generation
	4.2 Origins
		4.2.1 Formation of Coal
		4.2.2 Ranks of Coal
	4.3 Mining Coal
		4.3.1 Longwall Mining
		4.3.2 Surface Mining
	4.4 Impacts
		4.4.1 The Aberfan Disaster
		4.4.2 Air Pollution from Coal
	4.5 British Coal
		4.5.1 Stanley Jevons and The Coal Question
		4.5.2 The Royal Commission on Coal Supplies
	4.6 The Mature Regions
		4.6.1 German Hard Coal
		4.6.2 Pennsylvania Anthracite
		4.6.3 Summary for the Mature Regions
	4.7 The Active Regions
		4.7.1 Western US Coal
		4.7.2 Chinese Coal
		4.7.3 Summary for the Active Regions
	Concepts to Review
	Problems
	Further Reading
5 Hydrocarbons
	5.1 Introduction
		5.1.1 Edwin Drake and His Well
		5.1.2 John D. Rockefeller and Standard Oil
		5.1.3 Oil and War
		5.1.4 The Texas Railroad Commission and OPEC
	5.2 Origins
		5.2.1 The Oil Window
		5.2.2 Hydrocarbon Traps
		5.2.3 Dad Joiner and the East Texas Oil Field
	5.3 Drilling for Oil and Gas
		5.3.1 Fracking Technology
		5.3.2 Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR)
	5.4 Impacts
		5.4.1 The First Gulf War
		5.4.2 The Long Beach Subsidence
	5.5 King Hubbert and Peak Oil
	5.6 Natural Gas
		5.6.1 George Mitchell and the Barnett Shale
		5.6.2 American Shale Gas Production
		5.6.3 Natural Gas Infrastructure
	5.7 Projections
	Concepts to Review
	Problems
	Further Reading
6 Farming and Fishing
	6.1 Introduction
		6.1.1 Norman Borlaug and the Green Revolution
		6.1.2 The Role of Nitrogen in Agriculture
		6.1.3 The Brazilian Cerrado
		6.1.4 The Food Supply
		6.1.5 Oil and Food
	6.2 The Haber–Bosch Process
		6.2.1 The Guano Islands
		6.2.2 Fritz Haber and Ammonia Synthesis
		6.2.3 Carl Bosch and Ammonia Production
	6.3 Cereals
		6.3.1 Corn
		6.3.2 Regional Cereal Production
	6.4 Livestock
	6.5 Impacts
		6.5.1 Agricultural Land
		6.5.2 The Destruction of the Aral Sea
		6.5.3 The American Endangered Species Act
		6.5.4 Agriculture and Water
	6.6 Fish
		6.6.1 The Destruction of the Newfoundland Cod Fishery
		6.6.2 The Pacific Sardine and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)
		6.6.3 Fish Farming
	6.7 Biofuels
		6.7.1 Gobar Gas
		6.7.2 Liquid Biofuels Production History
	6.8 Prospects
	Concepts to Review
	Problems
	Further Reading
7 Electricity and the Alternatives
	7.1 Introduction
		7.1.1 Thomas Edison and the Electrical Grid
		7.1.2 Electricity Generation History
		7.1.3 Daily Demand Curves
		7.1.4 Capital Investments in Electricity Grids
		7.1.5 European Residential Electricity
		7.1.6 The Electricity Alternatives
	7.2 Transmission Lines and Transformers
	7.3 Electricity Generators
		7.3.1 Three-Phase Systems
		7.3.2 Fuel Costs in Fossil-Fuel Generation
	7.4 Hydroelectric
		7.4.1 Hydroelectric Generation History
		7.4.2 The Pelton Wheel and Hydroelectric Power in California
		7.4.3 The Francis Turbine and the Hoover Dam
	7.5 Nuclear
		7.5.1 The Atomic Bomb
		7.5.2 Failed Dreams
		7.5.3 Nuclear Generation History
		7.5.4 The Chernobyl Disaster
		7.5.5 The Great Tohoku Tsunami
	7.6 Geothermal
		7.6.1 The Geysers Field in California
		7.6.2 Geothermal Heating in Iceland
		7.6.3 The Japanese Onsen
	7.7 Wind
		7.7.1 Wind Resources
		7.7.2 Wind Generation History
		7.7.3 The Betz Limit
		7.7.4 Wind Variability
	7.8 Solar
		7.8.1 Solar Resources
		7.8.2 The Ivanpah Solar Thermal Plant
		7.8.3 Solar Cell Efficiency
		7.8.4 Solar Generation History
		7.8.5 Solar Variability
	7.9 Batteries
		7.9.1 Battery Grid Storage
		7.9.2 A Model Renewable Grid for California
	7.10 Prospects
	Concepts to Review
	Problems
	Further Reading
8 Stationary Demand
	8.1 Introduction
		8.1.1 Passive Cooling
		8.1.2 Temperature and Mortality
		8.1.3 OECD vs. Non-OECD Stationary Demand
	8.2 Lighting
		8.2.1 Nick Holonyak and His Light-Emitting Diode (LED)
		8.2.2 LED Efficacy Limits
		8.2.3 Prospects for LEDs
	8.3 Electric Motors
		8.3.1 The Universal Motor
		8.3.2 Nikola Tesla and His Induction Motor
	8.4 Heating and Cooling
		8.4.1 The Comfort Zone
		8.4.2 Heating with a Stove
		8.4.3 Evaporative Coolers
		8.4.4 Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps
		8.4.5 Inline Water Heaters
		8.4.6 Split-Zone Systems
	8.5 Information Technology
		8.5.1 The Jevons Paradox in Information Technology
		8.5.2 Bitcoin Mining
	8.6 The Rosenfeld Effect
		8.6.1 Refrigerator Efficiency
		8.6.2 A State Residential Efficiency Model
	8.7 Trends in Residential Energy Demand
	Concepts to Review
	Problems
	Further Reading
9 Transportation Demand
	9.1 Introduction
		9.1.1 Henry Ford and His Model T
		9.1.2 Transportation Energy Demand
		9.1.3 Electric Vehicles
		9.1.4 Transportation Oil Demand
		9.1.5 Commuting
		9.1.6 Freight
	9.2 Roads
		9.2.1 The American Interstate Highway System
		9.2.2 Vehicle Fuel Efficiency
	9.3 Rails
		9.3.1 The Japanese Shinkansen
		9.3.2 American Rail Freight
	9.4 Impacts
		9.4.1 The Wreck of the MMA-002 Oil Train
		9.4.2 “A Brown LA Haze”
		9.4.3 The Volkswagen Diesel Scandal
	9.5 By Sea
		9.5.1 From Sails to Engines
		9.5.2 Ocean Freight
	9.6 By Air
		9.6.1 Flight Range
		9.6.2 Airline Passenger Travel
	9.7 Prospects for Self-Driving Cars
	Concepts to Review
	Problems
	Further Reading
10 Climate Change
	10.1 Introduction
		10.1.1 The Callendar Effect
		10.1.2 California Forest Fires
	10.2 Carbon Dioxide
	10.3 Sea Level
	10.4 Temperature Indexes
		10.4.1 The Central England Temperature Index
		10.4.2 The HadCRUT4 Index
		10.4.3 Radiative Forcing and HadCRUT4
		10.4.4 Summer Maximums and Winter Minimums in the United States
	10.5 Projections
	10.6 Summary
	Concepts to Review
	Problems
	Further Reading
Index