Energy Options Impact on Regional Security (NATO Science for Peace and Security Series C: Environmental Security)

Energy Options Impact on Regional Security
	CONTENTS
	PREFACE
	MULTI-METHOD AND MULTI-SCALE ANALYSIS OF ENERGY AND RESOURCE CONVERSION AND USE
		1. Introduction
			1.1. FACTORS OF SCALE AND SYSTEM BOUNDARIES
			1.2. ACCOUNTING FOR TIME EMBODIED IN RESOURCES
		2. Towards an Integrated Evaluation Approach
			2.1. ACCOUNTING FOR MATTER FLOWS
			2.2. ACCOUNTING FOR HEAT FLOWS
			2.3. ASSESSING USER-SIDE RESOURCE QUALITY. THE EXERGY APPROACH
			2.4. ASSESSING DONOR-SIDE RESOURCE QUALITY. THE EMERGY APPROACH
			2.5. ACCOUNTING FOR AIRBORNE AND WATERBORNE EMISSIONS
		3. Results from Selected Case Studies
			3.1. COGENERATION OF HEAT AND ELECTRICITY
			3.2. PHOTOVOLTAIC ELECTRICITY
			3.3. ALTERNATIVE FUELS AND BIOFUELS
			3.4. TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS
			3.5. WASTE MANAGEMENT
			3.6. URBAN SYSTEMS
			3.7. AGRICULTURE
		4. Discussion
			4.1. THE ‘ADDED VALUE’
			4.2. WEIGHTING FACTORS
			4.3. OPTIMIZATION PROCEDURES
		5. Conclusion
		Acknowledgement
		References
	USING THE MUSIASEM APPROACH TO STUDY METABOLIC PATTERNS OF MODERN SOCIETIES
		1. The Problems with Existing Quantitative Sustainability Analyses
			1.1. THE CHALLENGE OF MULTI-LEVEL ANALYSIS
				1.1.1. Example #1 – Scale issues matter: it is essential to establish interlinkages between events taking place at different hierarchical levels
				1.1.2. Example #2 – assessments per capita (using a variable at higher level) miss important qualitative differences between societies (= the importance of demographic variables – referring to a lower level)
				1.1.3. Example #3 – assessments of any variable at higher-level (the whole society seen as a black box) must be combined with assessments of variables at lower-levels (qualitative differences within economies) by looking inside the black box
				1.1.4. Example #4 – Multiple-scale [short-term vs long-term view] and Multiple-dimensions [steady-state analysis vs evolutionary analysis]
		2. Key Characteristics of the Pattern of Societal Metabolism
			2.1. THE IMPLICATIONS OF CHANGES IN DEMOGRAPHIC STRUCTURE
		3. The Continuous Restructuring of the Socio-economic Metabolic Pattern
			3.1. THE METABOLIC PATTERN OF SOCIETY ACROSS LEVELS
				3.1.1. The dynamic budget between requirement of human activity and supply of human activity between the Household (HH) and the Paid Work (PW) sector
		4. Using an Integrated Analysis of the Metabolic Pattern of European Countries to Check the Hypothesis of Environmental Kuznet Curves
			4.1. AN INTERNATIONAL COMPARISON OF EU METABOLIC PATTERNS
				4.1.1. Moving from level n (societal average) to level n−1 (PW sector)
				4.1.2. Moving from level n−1 (PW sector) to level n−2 (subsectors of PW)
			4.2. PUTTING THE VARIOUS PIECES OF THE PUZZLE TOGETHER
			4.3. THE LESSON TO BE LEARNED FROM THIS INTEGRATED ANALYSIS OF METABOLIC PATTERN OF EU COUNTRIES
			References
	SEVEN POLICY SWITCHES FOR GLOBAL SECURITY
		1. Security means Global Security
			1.1. SECURITY INCLUDES NON-MILITARY THREATS
			1.2. GLOBAL SECURITY IS NOT HAPPENING
			1.3. THE AGE OF STUPID
			1.4. HOW TO FAIL
			1.5. THE PLANET CRUNCH PROCEEDS UNCHALLENGED
			1.6. HOW NOT TO FAIL
			1.7. MAKING THE SWITCHES
		2. First Policy Switch: From a Strategy of Reducing Problems to Reversing them
			2.1. LESS BAD IS NOT GOOD ENOUGH
			2.2. THE ILLUSION OF PROGRESS
			2.3. WHICH WAY FOR GROWTH?
			2.4. NO GROWTH IS NO ANSWER
			2.5. AIM TO REVERSE NOT REDUCE PROBLEMS
			2.6. THE PRIMARY LIMIT IS IMAGINATION
			2.7. REAL LASTING VALUE
		3. Second Policy Switch: From Predetermined to Curiosity-Led Learning
			3.1. ESCAPING THE OLD IDEAS
			3.2. CURIOSITY KILLED THE CATASTROPHE
			3.3. TEACHING DISENGAGEMENT
			3.4. IN PURSUIT OF KNOWLEDGE
			3.5. AN ERA OF THINKING BIG
			3.6. JOINED-UP SOCIETIES
		4. Third Policy Switch: From Consuming to Building the Basis for Economic Growth
			4.1. LINEAR ECONOMICS
			4.2. CIRCULAR ECONOMICS
			4.3. PRECYCLING
			4.4. PRECYCLING INSURANCE
			4.5. ‘LIFE INSURANCE’ FOR PRODUCTS AND PLANET
			4.6. A FREE MARKET IN HARMONY WITH NATURE
			4.7. SHRINKING MATERIAL AND ENERGY DEMANDS
		5. Fourth Policy Switch: Reversing an Unintended Incentive for Conflict
			5.1. MILITARY SECURITY CAN’T BE BOUGHT
			5.2. SECURITY MEANS GLOBAL SECURITY
			5.3. ESCAPING CYCLES OF CONFLICT
			5.4. SHOULD GROWTH INVITE GROWING CONFLICT?
			5.5. GROWTH AS A ‘WEAPON’ FOR PEACE AND SECURITY
			5.6. GPP BY INTERNATIONAL AGREEMENT
			5.7. SPREADING A CULTURE OF NON-COMBATIVE PROBLEM-SOLVING
		6. Fifth Policy Switch: Including Guardianship within Ownership of the Earth
			6.1. THIS ONE’S FINISHED, CAN WE HAVE A NEW PLANET PLEASE?
			6.2. VALUING NATURE?
			6.3. BELONGING
			6.4. OWNERSHIP CAN EVOLVE FROM MASTERY TO GUARDIANSHIP
			6.5. LET’S TRY FORWARD GEAR
			6.6. COMPENSATION
		7. Sixth Policy Switch: Recruiting the Mega-Rich to Inspire a Mega-Transformation
			7.1. ACKNOWLEDGE THE WINNERS
			7.2. IT’S CRUNCH TIME EVEN FOR THE MEGA-RICH
			7.3. SWITCHING TO A NEW WINNING STRATEGY
			7.4. TRANSFORMATIONAL PHILANTHROPY
			7.5. PRESERVING WEALTH BY SHARING IT
		8. Seventh Policy Switch: Local and Central Creation of Money
			8.1. WHERE DOES MONEY COME FROM?
			8.2. HARVESTING THE MONEY TREES
			8.3. OVER-HARVESTING
			8.4. MONEY TREES CAN PROVIDE PUBLIC BENEFIT
			8.5. THE MONEY TREES CAN BE SWITCHED FROM PRIVATE TO PUBLIC BENEFIT
			8.6. FROM MORE DEBT TO MORE POSITIVE DEVELOPMENT AND GLOBAL SECURITY
		9. Conclusion
		References
	ENERGY SECURITY AND THE SOCIAL USE OF ENERGY
		1. Introduction
		2. Social Use of Energy
			2.1. OPERATIONS
			2.2. MAINTENANCE
			2.3. GROWTH
				2.3.1. Net capital formation
				2.3.2. Population growth
				2.3.3. Growth in per capita consumption
			2.4. DEVELOPMENT
		3. Discussion
			3.1. SOCIAL ENERGY USE ACCOUNTING
			3.2. MEASURING SOCIETAL WELL-BEING
		4. Conclusions
		Acknowledgments
		References
	TECHNOLOGY WEDGES FOR LOW CARBON-STRATEGIES IN INDUSTRY
		1. Introduction
			1.1. EUROPEAN GOALS AND STRATEGIES FOR ENERGY AND CLIMATE
			1.2. ENERGY AND INDUSTRY
		2. Technology Wedges
			2.1. THE CONCEPT OF TECHNOLOGY WEDGES
			2.2. TECHNOLOGY WEDGES FOR THE PRODUCTION SECTOR
				2.2.1. Energy effective technologies
				2.2.2. Cogeneration
				2.2.3. Heat integration and energy recovery, process intensification
				2.2.4. Renewables: Solar heat for industrial processes, fuel switch to biogenic resources and organic waste, green electricity
				2.2.5. HVAC – passive house technologies for offices and production halls
		3. Conclusions
		Acknowledgements
		References
	SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FOR WORLD ECONOMIES
		1. Introduction
		2. Human Civilization and Energy Use
		3. Review of Nuclear-Fissile and Fossil Fuels
		4. Renewable Energy Technologies
			4.1. LIGHTING OF BUILDINGS
				4.1.1. Super-insulated windows
				4.1.2. Light-pipes
				4.1.3. Electric lighting
				4.1.4. Conventional lamps
				4.1.5. Energy efficient lamps
				4.1.6. Energy efficient controls
			4.2. SOLAR WATER HEATING
			4.3. SOLAR SPACE HEATING: SUPER-INSULATED WINDOWS AS SOLAR ENERGY PROVIDERS
			4.4. SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC
			4.5. WIND TURBINES
			4.6. SOLAR POWERED PERSONAL TRANSPORT
		5. Energy Cooperatives
		6. Conclusion
		References
	CADMIUM FLOWS AND EMISSIONS: CDTE PV FRIEND OR FOE?
		1. Past Growth Record and Future Projections
		2. Demand-Side Projections
		3. Emission-Side Projections
		4. Conclusions
		Acknowledgements
		References
	INCREASING RES PENETRATION AND SECURITY OF ENERGY SUPPLY BY USE OF ENERGY STORAGES AND HEAT PUMPS IN CROATIAN ENERGY SYSTEM
		1. Introduction
		2. Energy System Analyses Tool
		3. Reference Energy System
		4. Comparison of Reference Scenarios and Statistics
		5. Energy Systems Analyses Results
		6. Wind Power Generation Distribution Curves
		7. Technologies Integration
		8. Conclusions
		Acknowledgments
		References
	GOALS OF THE EUROPEAN UNION IN USING RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES AND ABILITIES OF THE REPUBLIC OF CROATIA IN REALIZATION OF THOSE GOALS
		1. Introduction
		2. Status and Prospects of Renewable Energy Sources in EU
			2.1. DETERMINATION OF GFEC IN 2005 AND AN ESTIMATE FOR 2020
			2.2. RES STATUS IN 2005
			2.3. POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF RES TO 2020
		3. Review and Comments of Possible Obstacles and Inconsistencies
		4. The Status of Renewable Energy in Croatia
		Acknowledgments
		References
		Additional Literature and Sources of Data
	THE KEY ASPECTS OF ELECTRICITY AND NATURAL GAS SECURITY OF SUPPLY IN CROATIA
		1. Introduction
		2. Legal Framework
		3. Electricity Sector
			3.1. KEY STAKEHOLDERS AND THEIR RESPONSIBILITIES
			3.2. PUBLIC SERVICE OBLIGATION
			3.3. CURRENT GENERATION CAPACITIES
				3.3.1. Operational security
			3.4. CONSTRUCTION OF NEW PRODUCTION CAPACITIES
			3.5. NETWORK OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT
				3.5.1. Network ageing and availability
			3.6. ELECTRICITY BALANCE
			3.7. ELECTRICITY SUPPLY
		4. Natural Gas
			4.1. KEY STAKEHOLDERS AND THEIR RESPONSIBILITIES
			4.2. PUBLIC SERVICE OBLIGATION
			4.3. PRODUCTION CAPACITIES, RESERVES AND STORAGE
			4.4. STORAGE
			4.5. CAPACITIES OF GAS TRANSPORT AND DISTRIBUTION NETWORKS
			4.6. GAS BALANCE
			4.7. NATURAL GAS SUPPLY
		5. Energy Supply Vulnerability Indicators
		6. Conclusions
		References
	ZERO EMISSION SOURCES OF ELECTRICITY: COST, CAPACITY, ADVANTAGES AND DISADVANTAGES
		1. Introduction
		2. Hydropower
			2.1. COST AND CAPACITY
			2.2. ADVANTAGES AND DISADVANTAGES
		3. Nuclear Fission
			3.1. COSTS AND CAPACITY
			3.2. ADVANTAGES, DISADVANTAGES
		4. Biomass
			4.1. COSTS AND CAPACITY
			4.2. ADVANTAGES, DISADVANTAGES
		5. Wind
			5.1. COSTS AND CAPACITY
			5.2. ADVANTAGES, DISADVANTAGES
		6. Geothermal
			6.1. COSTS AND CAPACITY
			6.2. ADVANTAGES, DISADVANTAGES
		7. Solar
			7.1. COSTS, CAPACITY
			7.2. ADVANTAGES, DISADVANTAGES
		8. Ocean Energy
			8.1. COSTS AND CAPACITY
			8.2. ADVANTAGES, DISADVANTAGES
		9. Conclusion
		References
	ANALYSIS OF ENERGY OPTIONS IMPACT ON REGIONAL SECURITY: THE CASE OF EASTERN EUROPE
		1. Introduction
		2. The Regional Context
			2.1. THE GEOPOLITICAL POSITION
			2.2. INTERNAL SECURITY CHALLENGES
			2.3. INTERPLAY OF INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL SECURITY CHALLENGES
		3. The Energy Dilemma and Chernobyl Legacy
		4. Resent Energy Security Events
		5. Conclusion
		References
	SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND ENERGY DEVELOPMENT IN UKRAINE – PROBLEMS AND SOLUTIONS
		1. Introduction
		2. Energy Development in Ukraine
		3. Socio-economic Development in Ukraine
		4. Policy Regulations and Development Indicators
			4.1. POLICY REGULATIONS
				4.1.1. Economic responses
				4.1.2. Energy and technology responses
				4.1.3. Institutional responses
			4.2. DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS
		5. Conclusions
		References
	ADVANCES IN SMALL HYDROPOWER ENERGY PRODUCTION IN UKRAINE
		1. Introduction
			1.1. RECENT TRENDS IN THE ENERGY PRODUCTION
			1.2. CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE SHPS IN EUROPE
		2. SHPs in Ukraine: Current Condition and Future Prospects
		3. Conclusion
		References
	SECURING ENERGY SUPPLY AT THE REGIONAL LEVEL –THE CASE OF WIND FARMING IN GERMANY: A COMPARISON OF TWO CASE STUDIES FROM NORTH HESSE AND WEST SAXONY
		1. Introduction
		2. Case-Relevant Wind Farming Regulations in Germany
		3. Method Applied to Evaluate Potential Sites for Wind Farming
		4. Case Study West Saxony
			4.1. STUDY REGION
			4.2. RESULTS
				4.2.1. Land demand
				4.2.2. Minimum distance to built-up areas
				4.2.3. Combined distance and height regulations
				4.2.4. Height limitation in some VE areas
				4.2.5. Expected energy yields
				4.2.6. Repowering potential in VE areas
			4.3. DISCUSSION
				4.3.1. Utilisation of a different type of wind turbine
				4.3.2. Spatial re-allocation of wind farming areas
		5. Case Study North Hesse
			5.1. STUDY REGION
			5.2. RESULTS
				5.2.1. Land demand
				5.2.2. Distance requirements
				5.2.3. No height limitation
				5.2.4. Expected energy yields
				5.2.5. Repowering potential in VE areas
			5.3. DISCUSSION
				5.3.1. Utilisation of a different type of wind turb
				5.3.2. Spatial re-allocation
		6. Comparative Evaluation of the Two Case Studies
		7. Conclusions
		References
	RENEWABLE ENERGIES TO PROVIDE SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT PERSPECTIVES FOR NORTH AFRICA: THE SAHARA WIND PROJECT
		1. Current Status – Security and Development Challenges in the Saharan Regions
			1.1. GEOGRAPHIC AND HISTORIC BACKGROUND
			1.2. LIVING CONDITIONS
			1.3. ECONOMY
			1.4. DEMOGRAPHY
			1.5. SECURITY CHALLENGES
				1.5.1. Terrorism (safe heavens)
				1.5.2. Drug Trafficking
				1.5.3. Illegal immigration
		2. Energy Supply, Energy Access a Development Imperative
		3. Renewable Energy Resources and the New Energy Economy
		4. Wind Power, a Social Energy Economy
		5. Access to Basic Services Water, Electricity, Communications and Security
		6. The EU Neighborhood Policy, the Mediterranean Solar Plan
		7. The Sahara Wind Project
		8. Other Alternatives or Lack of Renewable Energy Alternatives
			8.1. ELECTRICITY FROM FOSSIL FUELS
			8.2. NUCLEAR ENERGY OPTION
		9. Conclusions
		References
	RENEWABLE ENERGY POTENTIALS IN SERBIA WITH PARTICULAR REGARD TO FOREST AND AGRICULTURAL BIOMASS
		1. Introduction
		2. Wood Biomass
			2.1. FOREST RESIDUES
			2.2. WOOD PROCESSING INDUSTRY RESIDUES
		3. Serbian Wood Biomass Potentials
			3.1. FORESTRY OWNERSHIP STRUCTURE
			3.2. WOOD RESIDUES IN SERBIAN FORESTS AND WOOD PROCESSING INDUSTRY
		4. Agricultural Biomass
			4.1 AGRICULTURAL RESIDUES
			4.2 ENERGY CROPS
			4.3 AGRICULTURAL BIOMASS POTENTIALS IN SERBIA
		5. Identification of Potential Biomass Utilization Technologies
			5.1. BIOENERGY TECHNOLOGIES
				5.1.1. Direct Combustion
				5.1.2. Cogeneration
				5.1.3. Gasification
				5.1.4. Pyrolisis
			5.2. BIOENERGY PRODUCTS TECHNOLOGIES
				5.2.1. Carbonization
				5.2.2. Pelleting
				5.2.3. Briquetting
			5.3. BIOFUEL TECHNOLOGIES
				5.3.1. Ethanol
				5.3.2. Biodiesel
		6. Closing Remarks
		References
	DEVELOPMENT OF STRATEGIC SCENARIOS AND OPTIMAL STRUCTURES FOR SUSTAINABLE PRODUCTION OF BIOFUELS IN SLOVENIA
		1. Introduction
		2. Development of Strategic Scenarios and Optimal Structures for Sustainable Production of Biofuels in Slovenia
			2.1. SUGAR BEET AS A RAW MATERIAL FOR SUGAR AND/OR BIOETHANOL PRODUCTION IN SLOVENIA
				2.1.1. Discussion on results
			2.2. OVERWIEW OF BIOFUEL PRODUCTION TECHNOLOGIES
				2.2.1. Current technologies
				2.2.2. Technologies ready for commercialization in period 2010–2025
			2.3. DEVELOPMENT OF MATHEMATICAL MODEL FOR SELECTION OF OPTIMAL BIOFUEL PRODUCTION TECHNOLOGY
		3. Conclusions
		References
	BIOMASS FOR ENERGY AND THE IMPACTS ON FOOD SECURITY
		1. Introduction
		2. Food Demand and Supply System
			2.1. THE CONSUMPTION OF MEAT
		3. Energy Demand and Supply System
		4. Determining the Need for Food, Feed and Fuel in the Coming Decades
			4.1. THE NEED FOR FOOD IN LOW INCOME COUNTRIES
			4.2. THE NEED FOR FEED IN TRANSITION COUNTRIES
			4.3. NEED FOR FUEL IN THE RICH COUNTRIES
		5. Comparison Between Needs for Food, Feed and Fuel in the Coming Decades
		6. Discussion Methodology
		7. Consequences Results Found for Global Food Security
			7.1. ANALYSIS IN THE NEEDS PER CONTINENT
		8. Global Cereal Production and World Cereal Markets
		9. Conclusions
		References
	CHANGING ENERGY PRODUCTION, EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES AND REGIONAL SECURITY
		1. Introduction
		2. Issues to Be Dealt with
		3. Overview of Energy Issues Development Between 1960 and 2004
			3.1. SHARE OF ELECTRICITY LOSSES OVER ELECTRICITY FINAL CONSUMPTION
			3.2. ENERGY DEPENDENCY
			3.3. TOTAL FINAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA
			3.4. TOTAL FINAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION OF THE RESIDENTIAL SECTOR PER INHABITANT
		4. Definition of Scenario
		5. The Securitization of Energy
		6. Workshop Methodology
			6.1. BEST CASE SCENARIO
			6.2. WORST CASE SCENARIO
			6.3. BUSINESS AS USUAL
		7. Workshop Results
			7.1. WORKSHOP RESULTS FOR THE BUSINESS AS USUAL SCENARIO
			7.2. WORKSHOP RESULTS FOR THE WORST CASE SCENARIO
			7.3. WORKSHOP RESULTS FOR THE BEST CASE SCENARIO
		8. Conclusions
		Acknowledgments
		References
	AUTHOR INDEX
	SUBJECT INDEX