Enemies of intelligence knowledge and power in American national security

Cover......Page 1
Title......Page 4
Copyright......Page 5
Dedication......Page 6
Epigraphs......Page 8
Contents......Page 10
Preface......Page 12
New Enemies and Old......Page 20
A New Era?......Page 22
Straightforward Enemies and Linear Solutions......Page 27
Inherent Enemies......Page 31
Knowledge, Power, And Policy......Page 33
Why Intelligence Failures are Inevitable......Page 38
Failure in Perspective......Page 39
Paradoxes of Perception......Page 40
Attack Warning......Page 41
Operational Evaluation......Page 42
Defense Planning......Page 43
analysis and Decision......Page 45
Barriers to Analytic Accuracy......Page 47
Ambiguity of Evidence......Page 49
Ambivalence of Judgment......Page 50
Atrophy of reforms......Page 51
Elusive Solutions......Page 53
Assume the Worst......Page 54
Multiple Advocacy......Page 56
Consolidation......Page 59
Devil’s Advocacy......Page 61
Sanctions and Incentives......Page 62
Cognitive Rehabilitation and Methodological Consciousness......Page 65
Living With Fatalism......Page 66
Theories and Threats......Page 72
Two Tracks for Warning......Page 74
Predicting Suicide......Page 76
Linking the Tracks......Page 81
The Right average?......Page 83
Costs and Benefits of Politicization......Page 85
Accuracy or Influence?......Page 86
Who Should Drive the process?......Page 90
Faces of Politicization......Page 93
Types of Politicization and Intelligence-policy Interaction......Page 95
Contrasting Functions and Thin Lines......Page 97
Bald-Faced Politicization:  The Vietnam Order-of-Battle Estimate......Page 101
Competitive Politicization? Team B and the Soviet Estimate......Page 104
Unconscious Politicization? The Gates Revolution and Reaction......Page 107
The Nadir: 2002 and On......Page 110
Navigating the Thin Lines......Page 117
September 11 and Iraq’s Missing WMD......Page 123
Limits of Warning: September 11,
 
2001......Page 124
Errors of Omission......Page 125
Mistaken Priorities or Impossible Choices?......Page 128
Collection and Connection......Page 130
Wrong for the Right Reason? WMD in  Iraq......Page 133
Roots of Error......Page 135
What the 2002 NIE Did, Should Have Done, 
and Could Have Done......Page 140
Two Faces of Reorganization......Page 143
Straightforward Solutions......Page 144
Throw Money at the Problem......Page 145
Collection......Page 147
Analysis......Page 151
Professionals and Politicians......Page 154
Rectitude or Responsiveness?......Page 157
Red Tape, Reorganization, and Resistance......Page 161
What’s Wrong with Reorganization?......Page 162
Centralization vs. Pluralism......Page 165
Shaking Down the New Structure......Page 169
Delicate Balance or Pendulum Swing?......Page 173
The Conflict of Secrets......Page 178
Intelligence and Civil Liberties......Page 180
Priorities among Liberties......Page 181
The Wrong Tilt......Page 185
Threats to Privacy vs. Threats from Privacy......Page 187
PolIcy and Law......Page 190
The New Permissiveness......Page 191
Safeguards......Page 195
Need to Share......Page 197
Need to Know......Page 199
Successful Intelligence......Page 202
Do Benefits Balance Costs?......Page 203
Appreciating Success......Page 206
Knowledge, Policy, and Power......Page 209
Notes......Page 214
Index......Page 248