El Niño Ready Nations and Disaster Risk Reduction: 19 Countries in Perspective

Foreword
Preface
Acknowledgments
Notes on the Text
Contents
Introduction
	1 Introduction to El Niño
	2 El Niño and Its Effects
	3 What El Niño Can Do: Mapping Global and Regional Hotspots
	4 Forecasting El Niño and What It Means to Be “El Niño Ready”
	5 Deconstructing Readiness
	6 Limits to Readiness
	7 Being Ready: The Who, the by When, and the to What Degree
	8 Strategic and Tactical Responses
	9 Using El Niño History and Science
	10 Climate Change and ENSO
	11 “Mostly El Niño”: Uncertainty and Degrees of Attribution
	References
East Asia
China
	1 Climate, Water, and Weather Setting
	2 Strength and Reliability of El Niño Teleconnections in China
	3 Forecasting El Niño
	4 El Niño Analogue Years Noted
	5 Early Warning
	6 CMA’s El Niño Information and Forecasts
	7 First Observations of 2015–2016 El Niño
	8 Impacts Across China
	9 Regional Impacts of El Niño
	10 Government and NMHS
	11 Inter-Agencies Involved with El Niño Forecasts and Impacts
	12 Media Coverage
	13 Hurdles and Obstacles
	14 El Niño-Related Surprises
	15 Some Lessons Learned from El Niño Events
	References
South Asia
The Maldives
	1 Political and Economic Setting
	2 Climate of Maldives
	3 Strength of El Niño Teleconnections in Maldives
	4 Challenges in Communicating El Niño to and Its Impacts on Society
	5 Forecasting El Niño for Maldives
	6 Teleconnections During the 2014–16 El Niño and Their Impacts
		6.1 2014–2016 El Niño Event
		6.2 Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)
		6.3 Indian Ocean Warming
		6.4 Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO)
	7 Climate Over Maldives, 2014–2016
		7.1 Rainfall
		7.2 Temperature
	8 What Were the Impacts on the Maldives?
		8.1 Coral Bleaching
		8.2 Flooding
		8.3 Dengue
		8.4 Fisheries
	9 Hurdles and Obstacles
	10 Lessons
	References
Pakistan
	1 Political and Economic Setting
	2 Strength of El Niño Teleconnections in Pakistan
	3 Forecasting El Niño in Pakistan
	4 El Niño Information and Forecasts
	5 2015–2016 El Niño
		5.1 Detection
		5.2 Governance and Policy Response
	6 Lessons Identified
	References
Sri Lanka
	1 Introduction
	2 Political and Economic Setting and Vulnerability
	3 Climate of Sri Lanka
	4 Teleconnections with the Sri Lankan Climate
		4.1 Impact of El Niño on Sri Lankan Climate
		4.2 Influences of Indian Ocean Dipole
		4.3 Indian Ocean Warming (IOW)
		4.4 Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO)
	5 Forecasting El Niño
	6 El Niño Information and Forecasting
	7 Events During the 2014–2016 El Niño
	8 Climate During the 2014–2016 El Niño
	9 El Niño’s Sectoral Impacts
		9.1 Coral Bleaching
		9.2 Drought in 2013–2014
		9.3 Flooding, October–December 2015
		9.4 Landslides and Floods, May 2016
		9.5 Hydropower
		9.6 Rice Cultivation
		9.7 Coconut Cultivation
		9.8 Tea Cultivation
		9.9 Dengue
	10 Government and NMHS
	11 Interagency Activities Dealing with El Niño Forecasts and Impacts
	12 Media Coverage
	13 Lessons Learned from El Niño Events
	References
Southeast Asia
The Philippines
	1 The Philippines Context
	2 Society
	3 Economy
	4 Geopolitical Structure
	5 Research Method
	6 An Overview of the 2015–2016 El Niño Event
	7 Forecasting El Niño
	8 The Media
	9 “El Niño Readiness” Discourse: A Thematic Analysis
	10 El Niño Impacts
	11 Additional Noteworthy Impacts
	12 Preparedness
	13 Barriers to Preparedness
	14 El Niño Discourse’s Dominant Voices
	15 Other Voices
	16 Conflicting Voices
	17 Concluding Comments
	References
Myanmar
	1 Introduction
	2 The Global El Niño Situation in Early 2016
	3 A Brief History of El Niño in Myanmar
	4 The 2016 El Niño Outlook Forum (ENOF)
	5 Way Forward
	References
Timor-Leste
	1 Introduction
	2 Drought, Agriculture, and Food Insecurity in Timor-Leste
	3 The El Niño-Triggered Food Crisis of 2015–16
		3.1 El Niño Impacts in Timor-Leste
		3.2 Timing of Impacts and Mitigative Actions Taken
		3.3 Challenges Faced During the Drought Response
	4 Modernizing Timor-Leste’s NDMG to Support a Food Security EWS
		4.1 Food Security-Focused Climate Products and Services
		4.2 NDMG and User Interface
		4.3 NDMG Modernization: Part of Broader Development and Investment Planning
	5 Conclusions
	References
Vietnam
	1 Political and Economic Setting
	2 ENSO-Related Risk Management Systems in Vietnam
	3 El Niño Teleconnections in Vietnam
	4 Analogue Year Data
	5 Forecasting and Early Warning El Niño
	6 The 2015–16 El Niño
	7 Impacts of the 2015–16 El Niño on Vietnam
		7.1 Agriculture and Food Security
		7.2 Electricity Production
		7.3 Health and Water Security
		7.4 Sudden-Onset Extreme Events
		7.5 Biodiversity and Ecology
	8 Hurdles and Obstacles
	9 Some Lessons Learned from El Niño Events in Vietnam
	10 Vietnam Country Case Study Executive Summary
	References
South Pacific
Fiji
	1 Fiji Context: Political and Economic Setting
	2 Strength of El Niño Teleconnections in Fiji
	3 Response to the 2015–16 El Niño Forecast
	4 First Forecast of the 2015–16 El Niño
	5 Analogue Years Noted Before the 2015–16 El Niño Event
	6 Forecasting the 2015–16 El Niño
	7 The 2015–16 El Niño Early Warning
	8 The 2015–16 El Niño Impacts in Fiji
	9 Tropical Cyclone Winston: Early Warning and Response
	10 Media Coverage of the 2015–2016 El Niño
	11 Regional Impacts of El Niño 2015–16
	12 National Hydrological and Meteorological Services (NHMSs)
	13 Hurdles and Obstacles
	14 Lessons Learned from the 2015–16 El Niño
	References
Pacific Islands Region
	1 Introduction
	2 El Niño’s Potential Impacts in the Pacific Region
	3 Preparedness for El Niño
	4 Conclusions
	References
Sub-Saharan Africa
Ethiopia
	1 Introduction
	2 Climate-Related Hazards and Disaster
	3 Different Governments, Different Levels of Preparedness
	4 El Niño and the Ethiopian Economy
	5 Ethiopian Preparedness and the 2015–16 El Niño
	6 Impacts of and Responses to the 2015–16 El Niño
	7 Resource Mobilization
	8 Hurdles and Obstacles
	9 Lessons Learned
	10 Conclusions
	References
Kenya—Regional
	1 Introduction and Setting
	2 The East African Climate
	3 Conclusions and Recommendations
	References
Kenya—Local
	1 Introduction
	2 Enabling Effective Preparedness and Response to Early Warning
	3 Data Collection Methods
	4 Study Area and Broader Context
	5 Findings and Discussion
		5.1 2015–16 El Niño Predictions in Kenya
		5.2 Micro-Level Understanding and Perception of the El Niño Phenomenon
		5.3 Micro-Level Impacts of the El Niño Rains, 2015
		5.4 Effectiveness of El Niño Early Warning Dissemination at the Local Level
		5.5 Community Response and Preparedness Actions
	6 Conclusions and Recommendations
	References
South Africa
	1 Introduction
	2 Socio-Political and Environmental Context of South Africa
		2.1 Introduction to South Africa
		2.2 Socioeconomic Context
		2.3 Weather and Climate Patterns in South Africa
	3 El Niño in South Africa: Science, Detection, and Impacts
		3.1 El Niño Detection and Warning Issuance in South Africa
		3.2 Past and Current El Niños
		3.3 Impacts of the 2015–16 El Niño in South Africa
	4 To Be Forewarned is to Be Forearmed: How South Africa Responded to the 2015–16 El Niño-Related Droughts
		4.1 Governmental Structure, Legislation, and Processes
	5 Response to the 2015–16 El Niño
		5.1 Response to Early Warnings
	6 Response to Drought Impacts
	7 Drought (Mis-)Management
	8 El Niño in the Media
	9 Lessons Learned for El Niño Readiness in South Africa: Insights from El Niño
		9.1 Evolution of Drought Management Practices
		9.2 Lessons Learned and Recommendations
	References
Latin America
Central America
	1 Introduction
	2 The Central American Context
	3 Contending with Hydrometeorological Hazards in Central America
	4 From Major Disasters to Prevention
	5 El Niño in Central America
	6 El Niño 2015–16: Early Forecasts and News Reports
	7 El Niño Reporting on Central American Internet News Sites
	8 The Credibility of the Region’s NMHSs
	9 Concluding Comments
	References
Cuba
	1 Political and Economic Setting
	2 El Niño Teleconnections: Regional Impacts of El Niño
	3 Impacts in Cuba
	4 Forecasting El Niño
	5 Suggested Analogue El Niño Years Noted During the 2015–16 Event
	6 Early Warning
	7 El Niño Information and Forecasts
	8 First Indicators of the 2015–16 El Niño
	9 Government and the NMHS
	10 Inter-agencies Involved in El Niño Forecasting and Response
	11 Media Coverage
	12 Hurdles and Obstacles
	13 El Niño-Related Surprises in Cuba
	14 Lessons Learned from El Niño Events
	References
Ecuador
	1 Setting
	2 The 2015–16 El Niño Event
	References
The Panama Canal
	1 Setting
	2 The Strength of El Niño Teleconnections in Panama
	3 Forecasting El Niño
		3.1 Previous El Niño Years
	4 Early Warning
	5 The Source of Panama’s El Niño Information and Forecasts
		5.1 Formation of the 2015–16 El Niño
	6 2015–16 El Niño Impacts on Panama
	7 Regional Impacts of El Niño
	8 Government and the NMHS
	9 Inter-Agencies Involved with El Niño Forecasts and Impacts
		9.1 Media Coverage
	10 Hurdles and Obstacles
		10.1 Lessons Learned from Past and Current El Niño Events
	11 Lessons identified, with Emphasis on those Learned and Integrated into Current Operations
	References
El Niño Ready Cities (ENRCs)
	1 Political and Economic Setting
	2 Strength of El Niño Teleconnections in San Diego
	3 Forecasting El Niño
	4 Previous Analogue Years Noted During the 2015–2016 Event
	5 Early Warning
	6 First Indicators of the 2015–2016 El Niño
		6.1 Regional Impacts of El Niño
	7 Impacts in San Diego County and City
	8 2015–2016 El Niño Event Impacts
	9 Government and the NMHS
	10 Inter-Agencies Involved in El Niño Forecasts and Impacts
	11 Media Coverage
	12 Barriers and Challenges
	13 El Niño-Related Surprises in the City
	14 Lessons Learned from El Niño Events
	15 Lessons Identified: How Past Lessons have been Used in Future Planning
	References
Correction to: El Niño Ready Nations and Disaster Risk Reduction
	Correction to:  M. H. Glantz (ed.), El Niño Ready Nations and Disaster Risk Reduction, Disaster Studies and Management, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-86503-0
Epilogue
El Niño’s Characteristics
Further Thoughts about El Niño Characteristics
Forecasts
National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs)
Governance
Awareness
Media, Including Social Networking
	References