Ecological Modeling in Risk Assessment: Chemical Effects on Populations, Ecosystems, and Landscapes

Front cover......Page 1
Dedication......Page 6
Preface......Page 8
References......Page 10
Acknowledgments......Page 12
About the Editors......Page 14
Contributing Authors......Page 16
Acronyms and Abbreviations......Page 18
Contents......Page 20
1 Introduction......Page 24
OBJECTIVES......Page 25
THE PROCESS OF ECOLOGICAL MODELING FOR CHEMICAL RISK ASSESSMENT......Page 26
Limitations of the Hazard Quotient Approach......Page 27
Role of Ecological Modeling in Chemical Risk Assessment......Page 29
Deciding When to Use an Ecological Model......Page 32
Selecting Ecological Models for Application to Specific Risk Assessments......Page 33
Steps in Ecological Modeling for a Chemical Risk Assessment......Page 34
Compilation and Classification of Models......Page 46
Definition of General Model Categories......Page 48
Detailed Evaluation of Models......Page 52
SELECTION OF MODELS FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND USE......Page 56
3 Results of the Evaluation of Ecological Models: Introduction......Page 58
4 Population Models — Scalar Abundance......Page 60
MALTHUSIAN POPULATION GROWTH MODELS......Page 62
LOGISTIC POPULATION GROWTH MODEL......Page 64
STOCK-RECRUITMENT POPULATION MODELS......Page 65
STOCHASTIC DIFFERENTIAL EQUATION MODELS......Page 67
STOCHASTIC DISCRETE-TIME MODELS......Page 68
EQUILIBRIUM EXPOSURE MODEL......Page 70
BIOACCUMULATION AND POPULATION GROWTH MODELS......Page 72
DISCUSSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS......Page 74
DETERMINISTIC MATRIX MODELS (AGE OR STAGE BASED)......Page 78
RAMAS AGE, STAGE, METAPOP, OR ECOTOXICOLOGY......Page 81
UNIFIED LIFE MODEL (ULM)......Page 82
DISCUSSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS......Page 83
6 Population Models — Individual Based......Page 88
SIMPDEL......Page 89
SIMSPAR......Page 92
COMPMECH......Page 93
ECOBEAKER......Page 94
CIFSS......Page 96
WESP AND ECOTOOLS......Page 97
GAPPS......Page 98
PATCH......Page 99
NOYELP......Page 100
WADING BIRD NESTING COLONY......Page 101
DISCUSSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS......Page 102
7 Population Models — Metapopulations......Page 106
OCCUPANCY MODELS — STATE TRANSITION......Page 109
RAMAS METAPOP AND RAMAS GIS......Page 110
VORTEX......Page 112
ALFISH......Page 113
ALEX......Page 114
DISCUSSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS......Page 115
8 Ecosystem Models — Food Webs......Page 120
PREDATOR–PREY MODELS......Page 122
POPULATION-DYNAMIC FOOD-CHAIN MODELS......Page 123
RAMAS ECOSYSTEM......Page 124
ECOTOX......Page 125
DISCUSSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS......Page 126
9 Ecosystem Models — Aquatic......Page 130
TRANSFER OF IMPACTS BETWEEN TROPHIC LEVELS......Page 133
AQUATOX......Page 134
ASTER/EOLE (MELODIA)......Page 135
DYNAMO POND MODEL......Page 136
ECOWIN......Page 137
LEEM......Page 138
LERAM......Page 139
CASM, A MODIFIED SWACOM......Page 140
PC LAKE......Page 141
SALMO......Page 142
SIMPLE......Page 144
FLEX/MIMIC......Page 145
IFEM......Page 146
INTASS......Page 147
DISCUSSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS......Page 149
10 Ecosystem Models — Terrestrial......Page 152
DESERT COMPETITION MODEL......Page 154
FVS......Page 155
FORCLIM......Page 156
FORSKA......Page 157
HYBRID......Page 158
ORGANON......Page 159
SIMA......Page 160
TEEM......Page 161
SHORT GRASS PRAIRIE MODEL......Page 162
SAGE......Page 163
MODIFIED SWARD......Page 165
MULTI-TIMESCALE COMMUNITY DYNAMICS MODELS......Page 166
NESTEDNESS ANALYSIS MODEL......Page 167
DISCUSSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS......Page 168
11 Landscape Models — Aquatic and Terrestrial......Page 172
ERSEM......Page 174
BARATARIA BAY MODEL......Page 175
CEL HYBRID......Page 176
DELAWARE RIVER BASIN MODEL......Page 177
PATUXENT WATERSHED MODEL......Page 179
ATLSS......Page 181
DISTURBANCE TO WETLAND VASCULAR PLANTS MODEL......Page 183
LANDIS......Page 184
FORMOSAIC......Page 185
FORMIX......Page 187
ZELIG......Page 188
JABOWA......Page 190
REGIONAL FOREST LANDSCAPE MODEL......Page 192
STEPPE......Page 193
WILDLIFE-URBAN INTERFACE MODEL......Page 194
SLOSS......Page 196
ISLAND DISTURBANCE BIOGEOGRAPHIC MODEL......Page 197
MULTISCALE LANDSCAPE MODEL......Page 198
DISCUSSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS......Page 200
12 Toxicity-Extrapolation Models......Page 204
ESTIMATION OF FINAL CHRONIC VALUE MODEL......Page 207
HCS......Page 208
HC......Page 209
ACR......Page 210
NOEC FOR SURVIVAL TO OTHER ENDPOINTS MODEL......Page 211
ACUTE LETHALITY TO NOEC MODEL......Page 212
SCALING BETWEEN BIRD SPECIES MODEL......Page 213
SPECIES-SENSITIVITY RATIOS MODEL......Page 214
ERRORS-IN-VARIABLES REGRESSION MODEL......Page 215
DISCUSSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS......Page 216
13 Profiles of Selected Models......Page 218
TRAINING AND EDUCATION......Page 228
APPLYING EXISTING ECOLOGICAL MODELS......Page 229
INTEGRATING EXISTING MODELS......Page 230
INVESTMENT TRADE-OFFS......Page 231
15 Conclusions and Recommendations......Page 234
16 Summary......Page 238
RESULTS OF THE EVALUATION OF ECOLOGICAL MODELS......Page 239
References......Page 242
GENERAL INTRODUCTION......Page 268
Model Structure......Page 269
Age-Specific Survival Rates......Page 270
Age-Specific Fecundity Rates......Page 271
Estimates of Variability......Page 275
CASE STUDY Introduction......Page 276
Deriving Vital Rates for a Target Species......Page 277
Age-Specific Survival Rates......Page 278
Age-Specific Fecundities......Page 279
Population Dynamics without Pollutant Effects......Page 281
Specifying a Dose–Response Function......Page 282
Results of the Brook Trout Population Simulations......Page 283
Toxicity Assessment......Page 287
REFERENCES......Page 288
MACE AND LANDE (1991)......Page 290
RAMAS RED LIST......Page 291
USFWS (1983)......Page 292
DISCUSSION......Page 293
REFERENCES......Page 294
C Results of the Initial Screening of Ecological Models — by Model Analysis Team......Page 298
Glossary......Page 314
Index......Page 322
Back cover......Page 326