Eclipse: Living in the Shadow of China's Economic Dominance

Contents......Page 6
Preface......Page 12
Acknowledgments......Page 16
Introduction......Page 20
Ch 1. A Brief History of Economic Dominance......Page 32
Systemic Manifestations of US Economic Dominance......Page 35
Defining Dominance and Power......Page 44
Ch 2. Quantification and Validation of Economic Dominance......Page 46
Identifying the Potential Attributes of Economic Dominance......Page 48
Occam Razorization: Narrowing the List......Page 55
Measuring the Three Determinants......Page 58
Validating Economic Dominance......Page 61
Weighting and Constructing the Index of Economic Dominance......Page 63
Results: Economic Dominance in the Past......Page 65
Ch 3. Quantifying Currency Dominance......Page 70
Definition......Page 72
Benefits and Costs to the Country Issuing the Reserve Currency......Page 73
Short History......Page 76
What Determines Reserve Currency Status?......Page 79
Appendix 3A A Regression Analysis of Reserve Currency Status......Page 82
Ch 4. Forces Driving Dominance: Convergence and Gravity......Page 88
Convergence of the Previously Poor......Page 89
Convergence of the Populous, Previously Poor......Page 95
Projecting Numbers: Background Analytics......Page 97
Results......Page 100
Caveat......Page 109
Back to History: Economics Catches Up with Demographics......Page 111
Conclusion......Page 113
Appendix 4A Projecting GDP Growth Based on Purchasing Power Parity and Market Exchange Rates......Page 114
Appendix 4B Trade Projections Based on the Gravity Model......Page 116
Ch 5. Projecting Economic and Currency Dominance......Page 118
Economic Dominance in the Future......Page 119
The Future of the Dollar and the Renminbi......Page 125
Conclusion......Page 133
Appendix 5A Robustness of the Index of Economic Dominance......Page 136
Precocious or Premature: Can a Not-the-Richest China Be Dominant?......Page 138
China’s Trade and Openness Outcomes in Historical Power Perspective......Page 140
Chinese Mercantilism in Historical Perspective......Page 143
Ch 7. Guarding Against Rash Prophesying......Page 154
China’s Growth: Repeating Mistakes?......Page 157
Looking Back......Page 158
Realism of Trade Projections......Page 163
Conclusion......Page 165
How Many Country Groupings Are There in 2011? Historical Parallels......Page 168
Prospects for Cooperation Leading Up to Chinese Hegemony......Page 173
Ch 9. China as the New Raison d’Être for Reviving Multilateralism......Page 188
Limits to the Efficacy of Trade Reciprocity with a Dominant China......Page 190
Alternative Approaches: Promiscuous and Hostile Bilateralism......Page 194
Asian-Centered Regionalism as a Medium......Page 196
Impediments to Revived Multilateralism......Page 197
A “China Round” for Tethering China......Page 203
Conclusion......Page 205
Postscript\r......Page 208
References......Page 218
Index......Page 228