Dynamic Decisions Energy PIVOT, Adaptive Moves, Winning BOUnCE

Contents
Foreword
About the Author
About the Book
List of Boxes
List of Charts
List of Tables
Introduction
	Counterintuitive and Contrarian Moves
	Adaptive Actions by Real People
		I. Understanding Energy PIVOT
		II. Adaptive Moves
		III. BOUnCE to Win
		IV. Winning Actions
		My Reflections
		Bibliography
I Understanding Energy PIVOT
	Chapter 1 From Impasse to PIVOT
		1 Introduction
		2 An Essential Mindset Transition
			2.1 Policy and climate advocates’ imperatives
			2.2 (Some) Managers’ strategic responses
		3 Environmental Remediation to Sustainability
			3.1 The green dilemmas
			3.2 The meaningful and relevant questions
			3.3 Getting to grips with dynamic markets
		4 Create Niches to PIVOT
			4.1 Understanding market ambiguities
			4.2 Rethinking tactical and strategic moves
				4.2.1 Repurpose
				4.2.2 Reframe
				4.2.3 Reconfigure
		5 Profitably Adapting to Shifting Worlds
		Bibliography
	Chapter 2 Policy and Managerial Actions
		1 Introduction
		2 Why Freedom and Choices Matter?
			2.1 Freedom, choice, and spheres of influence
			2.2 Innate strengths of firms and policy
		3 Reframing Policy and Managerial Actions
			3.1 Governing the common pool resources
			3.2 Glacial pace to deregulation
		4 From Green Paradoxes to Green Bucks
			4.1 Who actually gains from subsidies?
			4.2 Why the green paradoxes?
			4.3 Learning effects — Confused logic, flawed euphoria
			4.4 Why are market structures crucial but ignored?
		5 Feasible Policy Focus Areas to Pivot
		Appendix
		Bibliography
II Adaptive Moves
	Chapter 3 Articulate a Purpose
		1 Introduction
		2 Why Do Firms and Markets Exist?
			2.1 From profit maximisation to risk reductions
			2.2 Minimise costs of production through specialisation
			2.3 Stakeholder theory and community relations
		3 Reshaping Thinking on Energy Firms
			3.1 What the business of energy is really about
			3.2 Changing roles of energy firms
		4 Inspiring Commitment with a Purpose
			4.1 PW One Three and the Bust to Best challenge
			4.2 Disruptive innovation and agility
		5 A Chief Executive’s Next Moves
		Bibliography
	Chapter 4 Bounded Possibilities
		1 Introduction
		2 Why Uncertainties Persist?
			2.1 Predictable extant world (A. Known–Knowns)
			2.2 Strategic or operational flexibility (B. Unknown–Knowns)
			2.3 Insurable consequences (C. Known–Unknowns)
			2.4 Learning through options and games (D. Unknown–Unknowns)
		3 Unpacking Policy Uncertainties
		4 Managerial Responses to Deep Uncertainties
			4.1 Organising adaptively for uncertain outcomes
			4.2 Recombining resources to move ahead
		5 A CFO’s Role in the Strategic Dialogue
		Bibliography
	Chapter 5 Calibrate
		1 Introduction
		2 Harnessing the Creative Power of Humans
			2.1 How managers fall into decision traps
			2.2 Improving the managers’ odds at succeeding
		3 Ecosystem for Prioritising Opportunities
			3.1 A prospects-to-opportunities funnel
			3.2 Interactions of human judgement and financial analyses
		4 Judgements and Financial Discipline
			4.1 Calibrating value creation under complex choices
			4.2 Valuation under ambiguous conditions
			4.3 Portfolio diversification and firms’ rivalry
		5 Improving the Odds to Succeed
		Bibliography
	Chapter 6 Take Actions to De-risk
		1 Introduction
		2 Inadvertent Consequences
			2.1 Ignored risks under rigid obligations
			2.2 Secure revenues or embedded default risks?
		3 Adaptive Value Chain De-risking
			3.1 Divergent risks or opportunities
			3.2 Resolving contradictions and geothermal paradox
		4 Adaptive Moves to De-risking
			4.1 Strategically adapting across value chain
			4.2 Unlocking exogenous bottlenecks
			4.3 Pacing and counterintuitive learning effects
			4.4 How rivalries impact the firm’s value
		5 A Strategic De-risking
		Bibliography
III BOUnCE to Win
	Chapter 7 Cost of Energy
		1 Introduction
		2 Financial and Economic Costing of Energy
			2.1 Perils of incomplete financial costing
			2.2 Linking to economic costs–returns nexus
			2.3 Monetising energy investments
		3 Informing Managerial Decisions
			3.1 Identifying the financial cost building blocks
			3.2 Incorporating economic notions of lifecycle costing
				3.2.1 Recovery of what was invested
				3.2.2 Keeping the assets running efficiently
				3.2.3 Arbitrage under fuel costs volatilities
				3.2.4 Monetising value with LACE
				3.2.5 Why getting the costs right matters
		4 External Costs and Carbon Emissions Costing
			4.1 A welfare economist’s view
			4.2 Costs of load intermittency to energy system
			4.3 Carbon emissions abatement as an investment
		5 Knowing and Using the Numbers
		Bibliography
		Appendices
	Chapter 8 Levers of Value
		1 What Drives Managers to Invest?
			1.1 Era of the earnings multiples
			1.2 “New paradigm,” old wisdom rules
		2 Understanding Financial Data
			2.1 Strategic investment and cash flow illusion
		3 Approximating “Cash Flows”
			3.1 Foundation for strategic dialogues
			3.2 Ignore critical premises at your peril
			3.3 Continued access to financing
		4 Funding Choices and Adaptive Actions
			4.1 Knowing funding choices
			4.2 Virtuous cycle of strategic investment
			4.3 Operating decisions and financing
			4.4 Capital rebalancing a core financial strategy
		5 Creating and Appropriating Cash
			5.1 Pacing capital expenditures and its long tail
		6 Valuing Stakeholder Returns
			6.1 Apportioning firm value to debt and equity
			6.2 Creating and managing value
		7 Incorporating Value and Strategic Dialogue
		Bibliography
		Appendices: Comparative Power Generation Financial Analyses
	Chapter 9 Price Taker
		1 Introduction
		2 Investing under Transitioning Markets
			2.1 Setting the meeting place
			2.2 Crossing the chasm to take actions
		3 Coal to Gas Transition
		4 Renewables’ Disruptions in Unexpected Places
		5 In Search of Viable Pathways
		6 Making Choices
		Bibliography
	Chapter 10 Oligopolistic Rivalries
		1 Introduction
		2 Understanding (Some) Decision Contexts
		3 Purposive Dynamic Decisions
			3.1 What value do binomial processes enhance?
			3.2 Dynamic thought processes and actions
				3.2.1 First identify the areas of uncertainties
				3.2.2 Understand how market allocates volumes to rivals
				3.2.3 Evaluate what maintenance capex, MCPX, contributes
				3.2.4 Variable volumes and the rivals’ value
				3.2.5 Pairings of rivals and contingent moves
				3.2.6 Formalise quantifiable outcomes using binomial processes
		4 Adaptively Reshaping Markets
			4.1 Shrinking carbon space
			4.2 Upsetting the ACCGTB apple cart: StoHydroB and geothermal
			4.3 Unified by symbiotic interests: ACCGTB and ANuke
			4.4 Intermittent supplies and its dichotomy
		5 Chief Executive’s Reflections
		Bibliography
		Appendices
IV Winning Actions
	Chapter 11 PIVOT and BOUnCE to Profit
		1 Introduction
		2 Foundational PIVOT
		3 Transitional PIVOT
		4 Transformational BOUnCE
		5 Making Counterintuitive Moves
		Bibliography
Glossary
Index