Drone Strike–Analyzing the Impacts of Targeted Killing

Acknowledgments
Contents
List of Tables
1 Introduction
	Background
	Drone Strikes
	The Legal and Ethical Debate
	Organization of the Book
	Conclusions
Part I Empirical Research on the Effectiveness of Targeted Killing
2 Cause and Effect in Targeted Killing
	Overview of Empirical Research
		Metrics
		Challenges in Determining Causality
		Identification Strategies
	Conclusion
3 Israeli Targeted Strikes
	Background
	Empirical Research
		Kaplan, Mintz, Mishal & Samban (2005)
		Kaplan, Mintz & Mishal (2006)
		Byman (2006)
		Hafez & Hatfield (2006)
		Zussman & Zussman (2006)
		Jacobson & Kaplan (2007)
		Kober (2007)
		Jaeger & Paserman (2009)
		Falk (2015)
		Kirchofer (2016)
		Abrahms and Mierau (2017)
		Falk & Hefetz (2019)
		Jordan (2019)
	Conclusion
		Determining Effectiveness
		Targeting Political Leaders
		Political Impacts
		Broader Lessons
4 Leadership Targeting Studies
	Group Survival as Dependent Variable
		Price (2019)
		Tominaga (2019)
		Cronin (2011)
		Langdon, et al. (2004)
	Terrorist Attacks as Dependent Variable
		Tominaga (2018)
		Mannes (2008)
	Both Group Survival and Attacks as Dependent Variables
		Jordan (2019)
		Johnston (2012)
		Rowlands & Kilberg (2011)
	Conclusion
Part II Impacts of US Strikes on Terrorist Groups
5 Overview of US Targeted Strikes
	Pakistan
	Yemen
	Somalia
	Targeting Standards
	Target Designation Process
	Conclusion
6 Quantitative Research
	Quantitative Studies
	Strikes Against AQC
		Specific Individual Members of AQC
			Carson (2017)
			Hepworth (2014)
		AQ Leaders Generally
			Jenna Jordan (2019 and 2014)
		Militant Leaders in the FATA and Pakistan
			Rigterink (2021)
			Johnston and Sarbahi (2016)
		Strikes in the FATA and Pakistan Generally
			Lehrke and Schomaker (2016)
			Javier Jordan (2014)
			Smith and Walsh (2013)
			Mir and Moore (2019)
			Mahmood and Jetter (2019)
			Jaeger and Siddique (2018)
			Johnston and Sarbahi (2016)
			Carson (2018)
			Bauer, Reese, and Ruby (2021)
		Strikes Against Militant Leaders in Yemen and Somalia
			Shire (2020)
			Carson (2018)
		Summary of Research on Targeting AQ Leaders
	Strikes Against AQ, the Taliban, and Other Groups
		Lehrke and Schomaker (2016)
		Abrahms and Mierau (2017)
		Lyall (2017)
		Rinehart (2016)
		Long (2014)
		Wilner (2010)
	Conclusion
7 Qualitative Evidence
	Loidolt (2022)
	Mir (2018)
	Mir and Moore (2019)
	Cruickshank (2011)
	Wilner (2010)
	Van Linschoten and Kuehn (2011 and 2012)
	Javier Jordan (2014)
	International Crisis Group (2013)
	Plaw and Fricker (2012)
	Johnston and Sarbahi (2016)
	Rohde (2009)
	Conclusion
8 Weighing the Evidence
	Impacts on AQ and TTP
	Attacks in the FATA and Pakistan
	AQ Attacks Beyond Pakistan
		Total AQ Attacks
		Attacks in the West
	Looking Ahead
		Targeting AQC
		Targeting Local Groups
	Conclusion
Part III Impacts of US Strikes on Civilians
9 Civilian Casualties from US Targeted Strikes
	Civilian Casualties
	Counting Civilian Deaths
	Government Secrecy and the Debate Over Precision
		2002–2013
		2013–2016
		2017–2021
	Casualty Estimates
		NGO Estimates
		US Government Estimates
	Conclusion
	Appendix
		Civilian Casualty Data
10 Civilian Casualties: Beyond the Numbers
	Drones, Precision, and Risk
	Civilian Casualty Mitigation: A Lifecycle Approach
	US Military Civilian Casualty Initiatives
	Challenges in Adopting a Lifecycle Approach
		Detection
		Institutionalization
	Conclusion
11 Effects on Local Populations
	Physical, Social, and Psychological Impacts
	Retaliatory Attacks
	Local Population Attitudes
		Attitudes Toward the US
		Terrorist Recruitment
	Conclusion
Part IV Conclusions
12 Analyzing the Impacts of Targeted Killing
References
Index