DIY Family Office: Simple Models That Beat the Pros

Preface xi     Acknowledgments xiii     PART ONE Why You Can Beat the Experts 1     CHAPTER 1 Are Experts Trying Too Hard? 3     Why Do We Rely on Experts? 6     What Are the Experts    Incentives? 9     Are Experts Worthless? 11     The Expert   s Hypothesis 13     Summary 14     Notes 15     CHAPTER 2 Simple Models Typically Beat the Experts 17     The Evidence Shows    20     A Study of All the Studies 21     What if Experts Have the Model? 23     But Investing Is Different, Right? 24     Why Experts Fail to Beat Models 26     Summary 28     Notes 29     CHAPTER 3 Experts Are Biased and Overconfident 31     The Biased Brain 33     Summary 47     Notes 48     CHAPTER 4 Experts Tell Us Stories, Not Facts 49     Story-Based Investing 52     Evidence-Based Investing 53     The Recap: Why Experts Fail 60     Why Not Use Models? 62     Summary 63     Notes 64     PART TWO How You Can Beat the Experts 67     CHAPTER 5 A Framework for Investment Decisions 69     Assessing an Advisor Is Difficult 71     The FACTS Framework 75     We   ve Got the FACTS: Now What? 86     Summary 90     Notes 90     CHAPTER 6 A Simple Asset Allocation Model That Works 91     Asset Allocation 95     A Simple Asset Allocation Model That Works 98     But Which Assets Do We Choose? 103     Summary 104     Notes 105     CHAPTER 7 A Simple Risk Management Model That Works 107     A Simple Risk Management Model That Works 109     How Does ROBUST Work? 113     Summary 121     Risk Management Research (For Geeks Only) 121     Notes 129     CHAPTER 8 Simple Security Selection Models That Work 133     Value Investing 134     Momentum Investing 140     A Simple Momentum Model That Works 146     Combining Value and Momentum 148     International Stocks 151     Get    Er Done 153     Summary 154     Notes 154     CHAPTER 9 The Do-It-Yourself (DIY) Solution 157     Exploring a Simple Equal-Weight Five Asset Class Model 159     Enhancing the Ivy 5 Concept 163     Finish Strong: The Ultimate DIY Solution 171     Get    Er Done 175     Notes 176     CHAPTER 10 Some Practical Advice 179     Three Reasons We Will Not Be a DIY Investor 180     Three Reasons You Might Fail 183     But Don   t Lose Hope! 185     Is DIY the Only Solution? 186     Notes 187     Appendix: Analysis Legend 189     About the Companion Website 191     About the Authors 193     Index 195