Development Policy and Planning: An Introduction to Models and Techniques

Book Cover......Page 1
Half-Title......Page 2
Title......Page 3
Copyright......Page 4
Dedication......Page 5
CONTENTS......Page 6
FIGURES......Page 8
TABLES......Page 9
PREFACE......Page 10
DEVELOPMENT POLICY AND PLANNING: AN OVERVIEW......Page 12
CHARACTERISTICS OF DEVELOPMENT PLANNING MODELS......Page 15
Coverage......Page 16
Time......Page 17
Accounting framework......Page 18
FURTHER READING......Page 20
THE HARROD-DOMAR GROWTH MODEL......Page 21
THE TWO-GAP MODEL......Page 24
FURTHER READING......Page 28
Characteristics of the main-sector models......Page 29
Examples of the main-sector models: consumption and investment goods sectors......Page 30
Input-output: a sketch of the system......Page 34
Solution of the system: the matrix method......Page 36
A Numerical Example......Page 37
Forecasting sectoral output......Page 39
Forecasting primary factor or resource requirements......Page 40
Forecasting capacity expansion and sectoral investment requirements......Page 41
Forecasting non-competitive import requirements and analysing possibilities of import substitution......Page 42
Identification of ‘key’ sectors......Page 43
Analysing supply shocks and cost inflation......Page 44
Identification of sectors with comparative advantage......Page 45
EXTENDING THE MODEL......Page 46
Vector......Page 48
Multiplication of matrices......Page 49
The transpose of a matrix......Page 50
Diagonal matrix......Page 51
Idempotent matrix......Page 52
The determinant of a matrix......Page 53
The inverse of a matrix......Page 54
Inversion of a partitioned matrix......Page 56
Properties of inverses......Page 57
THE SOCIAL ACCOUNTING MATRIX......Page 58
LIMITATIONS OF MULTI-SECTORAL PLANNING MODELS......Page 62
FURTHER READING......Page 63
INTRODUCTION......Page 65
Concepts of mathematical programming......Page 66
LINEAR PROGRAMMING......Page 67
Solution of linear programming problems......Page 69
Linear programming and the choice of technique......Page 71
SHADOW PRICING OF RESOURCES......Page 73
ECONOMIC INTERPRETATION OF DUAL SOLUTIONS......Page 75
APPENDIX: THE SIMPLEX METHOD......Page 76
How to recompute the simplex tableau......Page 79
The use of artificial variables......Page 80
Changes in the objective function coefficients......Page 81
Changes in the resource availability: right-hand side of constraints......Page 83
INTRODUCTION......Page 87
THE CGE MODEL APPROACH......Page 88
Final demands......Page 91
Input demands......Page 92
Price equations......Page 93
Solution of the model......Page 94
USES OF CGE MODELS......Page 97
FURTHER READING......Page 98
INTRODUCTION......Page 99
FINANCIAL PROJECT APPRAISAL......Page 100
ECONOMIC PROJECT APPRAISAL......Page 102
SHADOW PRICING METHODOLOGY......Page 104
Non-traded goods......Page 105
Unskilled labour......Page 106
DISTRIBUTIONAL ISSUES......Page 107
POLICY ANALYSIS AND COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS......Page 108
FURTHER READING......Page 109
BIBLIOGRAPHY......Page 110
INDEX......Page 113