Development Cooperation 1974 Review: Efforts and Policies of the Members of the Development Assistance Committee

Foreword
Acknowledgements
Contributors
Table of Contents
Executive Summary
Agricultural policies for raising rural incomes: An introduction
	References
Chapter 1. A Strategic Framework for Strengthening Rural Incomes in Developing Countries
	1.1. Introduction
	1.2. Economic development and the structural transformation
		The sectoral transformation
			Figure 1.1. Share of agriculture in GDP and per capita GDP
			Figure 1.2. Evolution of agriculture’s share of GDP in various countries (1961 to 2008)
			Figure 1.3. Evolution of agriculture’s share of GDP in Africa, Asia and Latin America, 1980-82 to 2006-08
			Figure 1.4. Employment shares in agriculture, manufacturing, and services, 2005
			Figure 1.5. Evolution of agriculture’s share of employment in various countries (1961 to 2007/2008)
			Table 1.1. Pace of adjustment in various countries, based on agriculture share of GDP and employment
			Figure 1.6. Agriculture’s share of GDP versus agriculture’s share of employment, 2008
		The spatial transformation
			Figure 1.7. Share of population that is rural and GDP per capita (190 countries)
		The institutional transformation
		Promoting a pro-poor structural transformation
	1.3. Policy responses to structural change
		Figure 1.8. Nominal rate of assistance to agriculture in developed and developing countries, 1955-2004
		Figure 1.9. NRA and agriculture’s share of employment, 1961 and 2005, selected countries
	1.4. A strategic framework for strengthening rural incomes and facilitating smallholder adjustment
		Box 1.1. Thailand’s agriculture: Transition and sustained growth
			Figure 1.10. Land, labour use and productivity in Thai agriculture, 1961 to 2007
		Short-to-medium-term policy considerations
		Long-term priorities
			Table 1.2. Strategic framework for strengthening farm household incomes
		Improving the competitiveness of farm households
	1.5. Conclusions
	Notes
	References
Chapter 2. Distributional Impacts of Commodity Prices in Developing Countries
	2.1. Introduction
		Table 2.1. Proportions of net buyers and net sellers of staple foods
	2.2. Methodology and data
		Methodology
		Data: RIGA, GIEWS and AGLINK-COSIMO datasets
			Table 2.2. Commodity categories and codes
	2.3. Hypothetical price shocks and illustrative results
		Figure 2.1. Staple net benefit ratio (NBR) of the rural sector
		Figure 2.2. Net benefit ratio (NBR) of staples by quintile of total expenditures (1 = poorest, 5 = wealthiest)
		Figure 2.3. Share of net sellers of staples in each expenditure quintile
		Figure 2.4. Values of staple consumption (top) and production (bottom) as shares of total expenditures, by type of staple, in the rural sector
	2.4. Retrospective look at the 2007/08 food price crisis
		GIEWS historical price data shows great diversity
			Table 2.3. Prices available from the GIEWS Database for the countries of interest
			Figure 2.5. Staple prices in Guatemala – 2005-09
			Figure 2.6. Evolution of the price of rice in selected countries, expressed as per cent increase or decrease relative to the mean
		Magnitudes, timing and duration of welfare shocks varied substantially across countries
			Table 2.4. Dates of the largest cumulated price shocks by country (shocks over six-month period), and details by crop, %
			Figure 2.7. Crop-cumulative six-month price differentials
			Figure 2.8. Welfare impacts by crop, at the time of the “worst” price shock (largest crop-cumulative six-month price increase)
			Figure 2.9. Evolution of welfare over time, in percentage difference from the mean
	2.5. Prospective look at the 2009-18 period
		Figure 2.10. Forward-looking welfare effects – in differences from 2009 level
	2.6. Conclusions
	Notes
	References
Chapter 3. The Distributional Implications of Agricultural Policies in Developing Countries – Findings from the Development Policy Evaluation Model (DEVPEM)
	3.1. Introduction
	3.2. The Development Policy Evaluation Model (DEVPEM)
		Farm households
		Transaction costs and missing markets
		Imperfect land transferability
			Figure 3.1. The three levels of land transformability in DEVPEM
		Household heterogeneity
		Rural economy linkages
			Table 3.1. DEVPEM overview: household groups, production factors, and commodities
		Data sources and model calibration
	3.3. Agricultural policy simulations with DEVPEM
		Policy implementation
		Main findings from agricultural policy simulations
			Table 3.2. Simulation results of rural household welfare effects of various agricultural policies (% change)
			Figure 3.2. Cost efficiency of various agricultural policies (averaged across the six countries)
	3.4. Conclusions
	Notes
	References
Chapter 4. Stabilisation Policies in Developing Countries after the 2007-08 Food Crisis
	4.1. Introduction
		Figure 4.1. International grain price indices
		Policy responses to world food price spikes
			Table 4.1. Trade based policy measures commonly adopted (as of 1 December 2008)
		Stabilisation policy debates
		Roadmap
	4.2. Economic environment
		World price volatility
			Figure 4.2. Annualised price volatility and cash prices of wheat
		Domestic versus international volatility
			Table 4.2. Disaggregation of variance components in producer prices for maize, selected African countries (%)
		Market imperfections and risk
		Price transmission
			Figure 4.3. Rice and wheat prices in stabilising regimes – China and Morocco
			Figure 4.4. Tradable versus non-tradable grain prices in Burkina Faso
			Figure 4.5. Tradable versus non-tradable grain prices in Mali
			Figure 4.6. Grain prices in volatile domestic markets – Malawi and Ethiopia
	4.3. Objectives
		Table 4.3. Objectives relevant to stabilisation policy choices
		Basic economic welfare
		Addressing market failure
		Social objectives
	4.4. Policy instruments
		Stocks
		Trade policy
			Table 4.4. Variability and covariance of maize production in Africa, 1995-2004
	4.5. Institutional arrangements
		Market institutions
		Governance
	4.6. Conclusions
		Policy recommendations
		Future research agenda
	Note
	References
Chapter 5. The Use of Input Subsidies in Low-Income Countries
	5.1. Introduction
		Figure 5.1. Food production per capita since 1970
		Figure 5.2. Cereal imports to Africa
		Figure 5.3. Numbers of undernourished in Africa
		Figure 5.4. Staple food yields in Africa since early 1960s, three-year moving averages
		Figure 5.5. Fertiliser application rates, kg nutrients/ha arable land, 2006/08 average
	5.2. Unpicking the arguments: Objectives of input subsidy programmes
	5.3. Disadvantages and dangers of input subsidies
	5.4. Experiences of input subsidies
		Figure 5.6. Malawi: Maize production, 1990 to 2009
		Sri Lanka’s subsidies on fertiliser for paddy farmers
		India’s subsidies on fertiliser, irrigation water and rural electricity
			Figure 5.7. India: Cost of agricultural subsidies, 1980 to 2002
			Figure 5.8. India: Spending on subsidies compared to public goods
		Lessons from these cases
	5.5. Design of subsidy programmes
		Table 5.1. Different aims for input subsidies, different implications
		Box 5.1. Kenya’s experience of liberalised markets
			Figure 5.9. Price of fertiliser at the port of Mombasa and in Nakuru, centre of main area of commercial maize growing
			Figure 5.10. Fertiliser consumption and imports in Kenya, 1990 onwards
	5.6. Conclusions
	Notes
	References