decision theory - a brief introduction

A Brief Introduction......Page 1
Contents......Page 2
Preface......Page 4
1.1 Theoretical questions about decisions......Page 5
1.3 Normative and descriptive theories......Page 6
1.4 Outline of the following chapters......Page 8
2.1 Condorcet......Page 9
2.2 Modern sequential models......Page 10
2.3 Non-sequential models......Page 11
2.4 The phases of practical decisions – and of de......Page 12
3.1 Relations and numbers......Page 14
3.2 The comparative value terms......Page 15
3.3 Completeness......Page 17
3.4 Transitivity......Page 18
3.5 Using preferences in decision-making......Page 20
3.6 Numerical representation......Page 21
3.7 Using utilities in decision-making......Page 22
4.1 Alternatives......Page 24
4.2 Outcomes and states of nature......Page 25
4.3 Decision matrices......Page 26
4.4 Information about states of nature......Page 27
5.1 What is expected utility?......Page 30
5.2 Objective and subjective utility......Page 31
5.3 Appraisal of EU......Page 32
5.4 Probability estimates......Page 35
6.1 What is Bayesianism?......Page 38
6.2 Appraisal of Bayesianism......Page 41
7.1 Process utilities and regret theory......Page 46
7.2 Prospect theory......Page 48
8.1 Paradoxes of uncertainty......Page 51
8.2 Measures of incompletely known probabilities......Page 53
8.3 Decision criteria for uncertainty......Page 56
9.1 Decision rules for "classical ignorance"......Page 60
9.2 Unknown possibilities......Page 64
10.1 Unfinished list of alternatives......Page 69
10.2 Indeterminate decision horizons......Page 70
11.1 Conditionalized EU......Page 74
11.2 Newcomb's paradox......Page 75
11.3 Instability......Page 77
12.1 The basic insight......Page 80
12.2 Arrow's theorem......Page 82
References......Page 83