Convergent Leadership-Divergent Exposures: Climate Change, Resilience, Vulnerabilities, and Ethics

Preface
Acknowledgements
About This Book
Discussion of Key Terms and Notation
	Scientific Notation of Numbers
	References
	Third-Party Links in this Section
Contents
Authors and Contributor
	About the Authors
	Contributor
Acronyms
1 Introduction
	1.1 A Bit of Historic Perspective and a Few Important Terms
	1.2 The Culprits of All Our Evils
	1.3 Clear Definitions Are Key
	1.4 The Book Plan
	Appendix
	References
Part I State of Affairs
2 Mankind, Risks and Planning
	2.1 What Constitutes a Priority?
	2.2 Real-Life Examples of Tactical and Strategic Planning
		2.2.1 Hurricanes and Related Flooding
		2.2.2 Volcanic Ash Cloud
		2.2.3 Rain, Storms and Flooding
		2.2.4 Design, Procedures and Monitoring
	2.3 Summary of Examples of Tactical and Strategic Planning
	Appendixes
	References
3 The Context of Divergence
	3.1 Mythological, Biblical and Recent Catastrophes
		3.1.1 The Ten Plagues of Egypt: The Return
		3.1.2 Super-Volcanos
	3.2 Emerging Considerations on New/old Exposures
		3.2.1 Asteroid-Earth Collisions
		3.2.2 Solar Storms
		3.2.3 2020
	3.3 Reporting Divergent Risks
	3.4 Goal of Convergent Leadership in a Divergent Risk World: The Example of Digital Transformation
	Appendix
	References
Part II Divergent Exposures, the Public and Ethics
4 Business-as-Usual Versus Divergent Hazards
	4.1 Credible Events and Standard Levels of Mitigation
	4.2 German Metaphors for Risks
	4.3 Talking About Return Period is a Disservice to the Public
	4.4 The Force Majeure Myths
	Appendix
	References
5 Corporate Risks and Exposures Versus the Public’s Wants and Reactions
	5.1 Corporate Risks and Exposures
	5.2 Health, Well-Being and Resiliency of Business and for People
		5.2.1 Current International Standards for Mitigating Risk Associated with People
		5.2.2 Risk Management for a Healthier Society
	5.3 What People Want
		5.3.1 The CIM 2015 Conference Workshop
		5.3.2 The London “Managing Risks” Conference
		5.3.3 Public Hearing for the Giant Mine
		5.3.4 The Sendai Framework
	5.4 A Note on Communication and Transparency
		5.4.1 Communication
		5.4.2 Transparency
	5.5 A Note on Ethics and Risk Assessment
		5.5.1 General Ethics
		5.5.2 Geoethics
	Appendix
	References
Part III Convergent Assessment of Exposures
6 System Definition in a Convergent Platform
	6.1 Definition of the “Soft” System
		6.1.1 Social Dimensions of the System
		6.1.2 Legal Dimensions of the System
	6.2 Physical System Definition
		6.2.1 The Emergence of Systems
		6.2.2 How to Dissect Your System
	6.3 A Note on Interdependencies
		6.3.1 Internal Interdependency
		6.3.2 External Interdependencies
	Appendix
	References
7 Comprehensive Hazard Identification
	7.1 Standard Methods for Hazard Identification
		7.1.1 Leveraging Technology for Archival Discovery
		7.1.2 Workshops and Interviews
		7.1.3 Monitoring
	7.2 Methods for Hazard Identification
		7.2.1 Satellites
		7.2.2 Big Data, Thick Data and AI
	7.3 AI and Machine Learning
	7.4 Hazards from Divergent Phenomena
	Appendix
	References
8 Defining Probabilities of Events
	8.1 Probabilities of One Event
		8.1.1 Initial Estimates
		8.1.2 First Estimate of Probabilities After an Event Following a Long Uneventful Period
		8.1.3 Linking Frequency and Probabilities
		8.1.4 Updating Probabilities (Bayesian Approaches)
		8.1.5 Summary of Elemental Probabilities
	8.2 Probability of Failure in a Portfolio
		8.2.1 Independent Elements
		8.2.2 Dependent Elements
		8.2.3 Summary of Conclusions on Portfolios of Elements
	Appendix
	References
9 Evaluating Consequences
	9.1 Dimensions of Failures
	9.2 Examples of Consequences Estimates
	Appendix
	References
Part IV Tactical and Strategic Planning for Convergent/Divergent Reality
10 Tolerance and Acceptability
	10.1 Historic tolerance thresholds
		10.1.1 Examples of Constant-Value Acceptable and/or Tolerance Thresholds
		10.1.2 Examples of Acceptable—and/or Tolerance-Threshold Curves
		10.1.3 Examples of Monetary Acceptable and/or Tolerance Thresholds Curves
	10.2 Modern Risk Tolerance
		10.2.1 Corporate Risk Tolerance (CRT)
		10.2.2 Societal Risk Tolerance
	Appendix
	References
11 Convergent Risk Assessment for Divergent Exposures
	11.1 Expectations
		11.1.1 Enhanced Resilience
		11.1.2 How Often Should a Residual Risk Assessment Be Performed?
	11.2 Who Should Perform a Risk Assessment?
	11.3 How to Perform a Risk Assessment?
		11.3.1 Synergistic Methodologies
		11.3.2 Using the ORE Platform
	Appendix
	References
12 Defining Manageable-Unmanageable and Strategic Risk
	12.1 What to do with those risks families?
	12.2 Beyond risk assessments
		12.2.1 Net present value versus risk as a key decision parameter
		12.2.2 Improving project cost evaluations
	Appendix
	References
Part V Convergent Assessment for Divergent Exposures: Case Studies
13 Objectives of the Case Studies
	Appendix
14 Case Study 1: Railroad RR
	14.1 The client’s request
	14.2 Success Metric (Failure) and Consequences Dimensions
	14.3 System Definition
	14.4 Gathering Existing Information
	14.5 Requesting Further Necessary Information
	14.6 Hazard Identification (HI)
	14.7 Risk Model Design
		14.7.1 Case A: Distribution-free Computation of BI
		14.7.2 Case B: When the Distribution is Known
	14.8 Results and Communications
	14.9 Recommendations and Conditions of Validity
	Appendix
15 Case Study 2: Terminal
	15.1 The Client’s Request
	15.2 Success Metric (Failure) and Consequences Dimensions
	15.3 System Definition
	15.4 Gathering Existing Information
	15.5 Requesting Further Necessary Information
	15.6 Hazard Identification (HI)
	15.7 Risk Model Design
	15.8 Results and Communications
		15.8.1 Risk and Intolerable Risks
		15.8.2 Roadmap
		15.8.3 Possible Mitigation Tactics
	15.9 Recommendations and Conditions of Validity
	Appendix
	References
16 Case Study 3: Convergent Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) on Divergent Risks
	16.1 The Client’s Request
	16.2 Success Metric (Failure) and Consequences Dimensions
	16.3 System Definition
	16.4 Gathering Existing Information
	16.5 Requesting further necessary information
	16.6 Hazard Identification (HI)
	16.7 Risk Model Design
	16.8 Results and Communications
		16.8.1 Divergence: Climate Change
		16.8.2 Divergence: Cyber-Attack, Communication And Consequences
	16.9 Recommendations and Conditions of Validity
	Appendix
17 Conclusions and Path Forward
	References
Appendix A Making Sense of Probabilities and Frequencies
A.1 Defining Probabilities and Frequencies
A.2 Making Sense of Probabilities and Frequencies
Appendix B Risk Assessments Don’ts
B.1 Don’t Declare a System “Safe”
B.2 Don’t Accept Incremental Answers
B.3 Don’t Call Unpredictable What Indeed Is Predictable
B.4 Don’t Jump to Risks: Hazards Come First!
B.5 Do Not Consider Consequences of Failures as One-Dimensional
B.6 Don’t Forget to Define Performance, Success and Failure Criteria
B.7 Don’t Use Common Practice Matrix Approaches (PIGs, FMEAs)
B.7.1 Probability Impact Graphs Deceitful
B.7.2 Newly Recognized Risk Matrices Deficiencies
B.7.3 Can We Solve the Deficiencies of Risk Matrices?
B.7.4 The Final Word
References