Contours of the World Economy 1-2030 AD: Essays in Macro-Economic History

CONTENTS......Page 6
LIST OF FIGURES......Page 9
LIST OF TABLES......Page 10
LIST OF BOXES......Page 14
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS......Page 15
Introduction and Summary......Page 16
The Contours of World Development......Page 17
The History of Macro-Measurement......Page 20
The Shape of Things to Come......Page 21
PART I: Contours of World Development, 1–2003AD......Page 24
Introduction......Page 26
Key Characteristics Accounting for Roman Success in Empire Building......Page 28
Conquest of the Italian Peninsula, 396–191BC......Page 32
The Empire Building Process......Page 33
The Disintegration of the Empire......Page 45
Roman Demography......Page 47
Roman Income......Page 58
Endnotes......Page 75
Bibliography......Page 77
Why and When did the West Get Rich?......Page 84
The Driving Forces that Explain the Acceleration in Western Growth since 1820......Page 88
Changes in the Structure of Demand and Employment......Page 89
The European Transformation of the Americas, 1500–1820......Page 102
Endnotes......Page 120
References......Page 123
3 The Interaction Between Asia and the West, 1500–2003......Page 126
European–Asian Interaction from 1500 to 1820......Page 127
The Impact of Asian Trade on Europe, 1500–1820......Page 130
The Impact of Europe on Asia, 1500–1820......Page 131
Endnotes......Page 193
References......Page 194
Introduction......Page 198
The European Impact on North Africa Before the Seventh Century......Page 200
The Islamic Conquest and its Implications......Page 203
Egypt as an Islamic State......Page 208
The Maghreb and the Initiation of Trans-Saharan Trade in Gold and Slaves......Page 221
The Changing Character of Moroccan Dynasties and their Interaction with Europe and Black Africa......Page 224
Black Africa and the Impact of Islam......Page 229
The European Encounter with Africa......Page 232
Africa from 1820 to 1960......Page 242
Post-Colonial Africa, 1960 Onwards......Page 246
Appendix: The Crusades 1096–1270......Page 252
Endnotes......Page 254
References......Page 255
PART II: Advances in Macro-Measurement Since 1665......Page 262
5 Political Arithmeticians and Historical Demographers: The Pioneers of Macro-Measurement......Page 264
William Petty (1623–87)......Page 265
John Graunt: The First Demographer (1620–74)......Page 271
Gregory King (1648–1712) and Charles Davenant (1656–1714)......Page 273
Patrick Colquhoun (1745–1820)......Page 297
French Political Arithmetic, 1695–1707......Page 299
Macro-Measurement in the Nineteenth and First Half of the Twentieth Century......Page 302
Bibliography......Page 303
6 Modern Macro-Measurement: How Far Have We Come?......Page 309
Development of Macro-Measurement as a Tool of Economic Policy since 1950......Page 310
Quantifying and Interpreting World Economic Growth from 1820 Onwards......Page 316
Economic Performance in the Merchant Capitalist Epoch: 1500–1820......Page 322
The Roots of Modernity: ’Takeoff’ or Long Apprenticeship......Page 330
Appendices......Page 331
Endnotes......Page 336
Bibliography......Page 338
PART III: The Shape of Things to Come......Page 348
Projections of Population and Changes in Demographic Characteristics......Page 350
Assumptions Underlying the Projections of Per Capita GDP......Page 353
The Relationship Between Economic Growth, Energy Consumption, Carbon Emissions, and Global Warming......Page 362
The Impact of Climate Change......Page 375
The Report of the House of Lords on Climate Change......Page 377
The Stern Review of the Economics of Climate Change......Page 378
Conclusions on Global Warming......Page 381
Appendix......Page 382
Endnotes......Page 384
Bibliography......Page 385
Appendices......Page 388
Statistical Appendix A......Page 390
Statistical Appendix B: Ingredients of Growth Accounts in Japan, UK, and USA, 1820–2003......Page 399
A......Page 402
B......Page 404
C......Page 406
D......Page 408
E......Page 409
F......Page 411
G......Page 412
H......Page 413
I......Page 414
J......Page 416
K......Page 417
L......Page 418
M......Page 419
N......Page 421
O......Page 422
P......Page 423
R......Page 425
S......Page 426
T......Page 429
U......Page 431
W......Page 432
Z......Page 433