Cognitive Bias in Intelligence Analysis: Testing the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses Method (Intelligence, Surveillance and Secret Warfare): Improving Analytical Efforts for National Intelligence

List of Figures and Tables
Acknowledgements
Introduction
Part 1  Intelligence, Bias and Belief Acquisition: A Theoretical Perspective
	1.  Intelligence and Belief Acquisition
		A Taxonomy of Intelligence
		Intelligence as an Epistemological Act
		How Can Knowledge Be Acquired?
		Epistemological Implications for Intelligence
	2.  The Efficacy of ACH in Establishing Epistemic Justification and Mitigating Cognitive Bias
		The ACH Method
		The Ability of ACH to Reduce Epistemic Complexity
		Intelligence, Bias and Belief Acquisition: A Theoretical Perspective
Part 2  Intelligence, Bias and Belief Acquisition: An Empirical Perspective
	3.  The Efficacy of ACH in Mitigating Serial Position Effects and Confirmation Bias in an Intelligence Analysis Scenario
		Procedure
		Results
		Discussion and Conclusions
	4  Predicting Serial Position Effects
		Experimental Conditions
		Results and Discussion
		An Examination of Previous Serial Position Effects Prediction Models
		The Impact of Analytical Conditions on Serial Position Effects
	5  Predicting Confirmation Bias
		Additional Experimental Conditions
		Results and Discussion
		An Examination of Previous Confirmation Bias Prediction Models
		The Impact of Analytical Conditions on Confirmation Bias
		Intelligence, Bias and Belief Acquisition: An Empirical Perspective
	6  Reducing the Risk of Cognitive Bias in Intelligence Analysis
		Recommendations for Future Research and Best Practice for Intelligence Analysis
Appendix
Bibliography
Index