Cognition and Decision Making in Complex Adaptive Systems: The Human Factor in Organizational Performance

Acknowledgments
About This Book
What You Will Learn
Intended Audience
Contents
List of Figures
About the Author
Part I: Common Origins: Applied Human Factors, Systems Engineering and Complexity Science
	Chapter 1: Introduction
		Complex Adaptive Systems
		Chapter Summary
		References
	Chapter 2: What Is a Complex Adaptive System?
		Defining Systems
		Criticisms and Cautions of Complexity Theory
		Why Should People Interested in Organizational Decision ­Making Be Aware of Complex Adaptive Systems?
		Chapter Summary
		References
	Chapter 3: Evolution from Linear to Systems Thinking
		Linear Versus Nonlinear
		Jurassic Park, Complex Adaptive Systems, and Covid: What Do They Have in Common?
		The Law of Unintended Consequences
		Chapter Summary
		References
	Chapter 4: Emergence of a New Discipline for the Twentieth Century: Human Factors and Systems Engineering
		Early Developments
		The Role of World War II
		When Things Go Wrong: The Study of Human Error in Decision Making
		Chapter Summary
		References
	Chapter 5: Complexity Science in Organizational Behavior
		Applying Complexity Science to Organizational Behavior Research
		Emergence in Complex Adaptive Systems
		Applications in the Social Sciences
		Chaos Versus Complexity
		Detecting Emerging Patterns in a Complex World
		Chapter Summary
		References
Part II: Science, Uncertainty, and Complex Adaptive Systems: The Search for Underlying Patterns
	Chapter 6: The Scientific Method Applied to Complex Adaptive Systems
		The Scientific Method
		Knowledge Is Power: The Role of “What-If?” Thinking in the Scientific Method
		Conceptual and Operational Definitions
		Chapter Summary
		References
	Chapter 7: The Challenge of Uncertainty in Complex Adaptive Systems Research
		The Role of Uncertainty
		The Role of Probability and Statistical Reasoning in Complexity Science
		Politics and Science
		Embracing Uncertainty in Science
		Chapter Summary
		References
	Chapter 8: Beauty and the Beast: The Importance of Debate in Science
		1816: The Year Without a Summer
		Beware of Groupthink in Scientific Research
		The Spirit of the Times
		The Role of Debate in Complex Adaptive Systems
		The Wisdom of Crowds
		Chapter Summary
		References
Part III: Cognitive Psychology: Understanding the Lens Through Which We Process Information in a Complex World
	Chapter 9: Cognitive Psychology: What Is In The Box?
		The Brave New World of Behavioral Research
		The Behaviorists
		The Role of Quantum Mechanics
		The Role of Human Factors and Computer Science
		The Proverbial “Black Box”
		Sister Mary Kenneth Keller
		Brief History of Cognitive Psychology
		How the Brain Retains Information
		Data Versus Information
		The Magic Number Seven
		Memory Stores
			Schemas and Scripts
			Cognitive Maps
			Mental Models
			Rule-Based
			Knowledge-Based
			Skill-Based
		Automatic Versus Controlled Processing
		Cognitive Neuroscience: The Biology of Thought and Behavior
		Chapter Summary
		References
	Chapter 10: Is Perception Reality?
		The Role of Perception
		Bottom-Up Versus Top-Down Processing
		The Perils of Perception
		Perceptual Illusions
		The Role of Uncertainty and Ambiguity in Perception
		Ambiguous Figures
			How The Brain Processes Information
		Filling in the Gaps
		Expectations and the Black Box
		Chapter Summary
		References
	Chapter 11: The Nature of Human Error in Decision Making
		To Err Is Human
		The Vigilance Decrement
		What Is Error?
		Errors Versus Violations
		Active Versus Latent Human Failures
		Potential Future Applications
		Risk Management in Complex Adaptive Systems
		Expectation and Human Error
		Chapter Summary
		References
	Chapter 12: Seeing What We Expect to See: Cognitive Bias and Its Role in Human Error and Decision Making
		The Role of Cognitive Bias
		Dealing with Uncertainty in Decision Making
		Normative Versus Descriptive Decision Making
		Heuristics and Biases
		The Most Common Heuristics and Biases
			Representative Heuristic
			Availability, Anchoring, and Adjustment
			Overconfidence
			Cognitive Tunneling
			Framing and Prospect Theory
		Prospect Theory Applied to the Covid-19 Pandemic
		Response Sets, Cognitive Bias, and the Deadliest Aviation Accident in History
		Confirmation Bias
		The Role of Evolution in Cognitive Bias: Fast Versus Slow Thinking
		Chapter Summary
		References
	Chapter 13: How Polarization Impacts Judgment: We Are More Emotional and Less Rationale Than We Would Like to Believe
		Polarization Research
		Partisan Perceptions and Biased Assimilation
		What Can We Do About It?
		Relationship as the Basis for All Negotiations
		Chapter Summary
		References
Part IV: Decision Making in a Complex World
	Chapter 14: Naturalistic Decision Making
		The Intuition of Charlemagne
		Experts and Their “Guts”
		Naturalistic Decision Making
		Problem Solving
		Training for NDM
		Attributes of Effective NDM Decision Makers
		Underlying Cognitive Mechanisms to Effective Decision Making Attributes
		Mental Simulation
			United Flight 232
		Strategy Modulation and Reasoning Skills
		Real-World Implications for NDM Training
			Training for Stress Management
		Applications of Human Factors to Training Expert Decision Making
			Metarecognition
			Goals of After-Action Reviews and Incident Investigations
		What Might the Tragedy in Uvalde Have in Common with the 3-Mile Island Nuclear Power Plant Meltdown?
		Distributed Decision Making
		Chapter Summary
		References
	Chapter 15: The Stages of a Decision
		What Is a Decision?
		The OODA Loop
		Chapter Summary
		References
	Chapter 16: Situational Awareness and Situational Assessment
		The Role of Situation Assessment
		The Role of Internal Cognitive Models in Decision Making Within Complex Adaptive Systems
		The Role of Situation Assessment in Developing Internal Cognitive Models in Dynamic Environments
		The Modern Flight Deck Remains a Real-World Laboratory for Studying Situational Awareness in Complex Adaptive Systems
		Chapter Summary
		References
Part V: The Wrench in Newton’s Machine: Applying Models from Cognitive Science, Human Factors and Systems Engineering to Decision Making Within Complex Adaptive Systems
	Chapter 17: The Human Factor in Complex Adaptive Systems
		Learning from Disaster
		The SHEL(L) Model
		Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS)
			Unsafe Acts of Operators
			Preconditions for Unsafe Acts
			Unsafe Supervision
			Organizational Influences
		Chapter Summary
		References
	Chapter 18: Strategic Decision Making Through the Lens of Complex Adaptive Systems: The Cynefin Framework
		What Is Strategic Decision Making?
		The Cynefin Framework
			Ordered Domains: Simple and Complicated
			Unordered Domains: Complex and Chaotic
			Chaotic Domains
			Disorder
		Houston, We Have a Problem
		Applying Cynefin to the Covid-19 Pandemic
		Chapter Summary
		References
Part VI: Behavioral and Social Aspects of Team Decision Making in Complex Adaptive Systems
	Chapter 19: Team Decision Making and Crew Resource Management
		Crew Resource Management
		Assessing Effectiveness of CRM
		Effectiveness of CRM Beyond Aviation
		Chapter Summary
		References
	Chapter 20: The Importance of Learning Cultures in Organizations
		Organizational Learning
		Information Flow
		Creating Cultures of Learning
		Single- vs. Double-Loop Learning
			Single-Loop Learning
			Double-Loop Learning
		Relationship Between Learning Cultures and Conflict Management
			Triple-Loop Learning
		Similar Models of Organizational Learning
		Cultures of Indecision
			The Culture of Yes
			The Culture of No
			The Culture of Maybe
		The Impact of Organizational Culture on Decision Making
		Chapter Summary
		References
	Chapter 21: Fostering Diversity of Thought in Strategic Decision Making
		Lessons from Cyrus the Great
		The Leader’s Role in the Strategic Decision Process
		How Leaders Can Guide the Decision Process Toward Implementation
			Decision Quality
			Implementation Effectiveness
		Roberto’s Managerial Levers in the Decision Making Process
			Composition
			Context
			Communication
			Control
		Chapter Summary
		References
Part VII: The Leader’s Role in Innovation and Implementation
	Chapter 22: Innovation in Complex Adaptive Systems
		What Is Innovation?
		Diffusion of Innovation (Fig. 22.3)
		Diffusion of Innovation
		Tipping Points in Innovation
		The Social Benefits of Diffusion of Innovation: Wireless Leiden Project
		The Nepal Wireless Networking Project
		A Note of Caution with Respect to Case Studies
		Chapter Summary
		References
	Chapter 23: The Dark Side of Innovation
		Acknowledging the Risks Associated with Technological Advancement
		Chapter Summary
		References
Index