Climate Extremes and Their Implications for Impact and Risk Assessment

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CLIMATE
EXTREMES
ANDTHEIR
IMPLICATIONS FOR
IMPACT AND RISK
ASSESSMENT
Copyright
Contributors
Acknowledgments
1
Climate extremes and their implications for impact and risk assessment: A short introduction
	Introduction
	The quest for impact-relevant climate extreme indices and sectoral impact assessment
	Embracing complexity and interdisciplinarity in impact and risk assessment
	Scope and overview of book content
	Acknowledgments
	References
	Further reading
2
Climate scenarios and their relevance and implications for impact studies
	Motivation
	Representative concentration pathways for CMIP5
	The second component of the parallel process: The SSPs
	The integration step: analyzing climate and socioeconomic futures together
	Examples of integrated scenario analysis
		The literature context
		Heat extremes and human exposure
		Agricultural production and prices
		Tropical cyclones and coastal damages
	Looking ahead
	References
	Further reading
3
Changes in climate extremes in observations and climate model simulations. From the past to the future
	Introduction
	Data basis for the analysis of climate extremes
	Past observed and simulated trends in climate extremes
	Projected trends in climate extremes
	Conclusions
	Acknowledgments
	References
4
Multivariate extremes and compound events
	Introduction
	What is a compound event?
	Why do compound events matter?
	Are they new?
	What do you mean by risk?
	What does it mean for climate change assessments?
	How do I know which variables to simulate?
	Are compound events relevant for my problem?
	Conclusions
	References
5
Bias correction of climate model output for impact models
	Introduction
	Definition of bias and bias correction
		Bias as systematic or time-independent error
		Distinction of weather forecasting (perfect prognosis and model output statistics) from climate predictions (short ...
			Delta method
			Perfect prognosis and model output statistics
	Basic univariate methods
		Methods
		Observations
		Cross-validation
		Limits of applicability
			The stationarity assumption
			Extreme events
			Weather patterns
	Multivariate methods
		Conditional binning
		Variants of the Schaake shuffle
		Iterative techniques
	Observations-based constraints: A complement to statistical bias correction for addressing extreme impacts
	Conclusions
	References
	Further reading
6
Anthropogenic changes in tropical cyclones and its impacts
	Introduction
	Future climate change
	Discussion
	Acknowledgments
	References
	Further reading
7
Machine learning applications for agricultural impacts under extreme events
	Introduction
	Climate extremes affecting agriculture
	Pattern recognition and anomaly detection
	Forecasting applications
	Opportunities and challenges
	Acknowledgments
	References
8
Assessing the France 2016 extreme wheat production loss—Evaluating our operational capacity to predict complex compound eve ...
	Introduction
	What happened?
	Failure of crop forecasting systems
	The JRC-MARS’ France wheat yield forecast for 2016
	Toward probabilistic forecasts
	Way forward
		Learning from similar experiences elsewhere
		Improving crop models and integrating data from crop trials
		Improved impact predictors and new forecasting methods
		Using novel data streams at parcel level
	Conclusions
	Acknowledgements
	References
9
Probabilistic drought risk analysis for even-aged forests
	Introduction
		Droughts and forests
		Quantifying drought
		Risk analysis
		Contents of this chapter
	Materials and methods
		PRA
			Quantifying drought in terms of the SPEI
			Calculating p(H), V, and R
			Uncertainty quantification
		Forest data
			PROFOUND (France, Germany, and Denmark)
			El Carrascal (Spain)
	Results and discussion
		Drought risks of forests, and its two components
		Methodology of PRA
		Managing future risks
		The future of PRA for forests
		Acknowledgments
	References
10
Projecting health impacts of climate extremes: A methodological overview
	Estimation of exposure-response associations
	Future climatic and population scenarios
	Downscaling and calibration
	Extrapolation of exposure-response curve
	Projection and quantification of the impact
	Ensemble estimates and quantification of uncertainty
	More complex scenarios: Demographic changes and adaptation
	Final remarks
	References
11
Climate extremes and their implications for impact modeling in transport
	Introduction
	Background and motivation
		Multifaceted vulnerabilities
		Complexity
		Criticality
	A risk-based methodology
		Hazard
			Multivariate relationships
			Temporal resolution
			Spatial resolution
			Spatial coherence
			Extremes
		Exposure and vulnerability
		Impact
	Case studies of climate impact on transport networks
		The impact of flooding on roads
		The impact of flooding on rail
	Insights and discussion
		Issues around integration into multisectoral assessments
		Toward a new direction for impact studies
	Conclusion
	Acknowledgments
	References
	Further reading
12
Assessing vulnerability and risk of climate change
	Introduction
	Methodology
		Search strategy
		Eligibility criteria
		Reference management
	Impact of extreme events
	Tools, approaches, and methods for climate risk and vulnerability assessment
		Risk assessment
	Discussions and recommendations
	Conclusions
	References
	Further reading
13
Data challenges limit our global understanding of humanitarian disasters triggered by climate extremes
	Introduction
	Open issues in the quantitative basis
	Fundamental research challenges
	Conclusions
	Acknowledgments
	References
14
Adaptive capacity of coupled social-ecological systems to absorb climate extremes
	Introduction
	Transdisciplinary research approaches to evaluate and operationalize resilience in SESs
		Example 1—Transformation of management practices
		Example 2—Altered land-use allocation
		Example 3—Resilience of multifunctionality
		Example 4—Knowledge coproduction
		Example 5—Societal resilience
	Discussion and conclusion
	Acknowledgments
	References
15
Impacts of extreme events on medieval societies: Insights from climate history
	A short introduction to climate history
	Strengths and weaknesses of documentary data compared to data from natural archives
	Spectrum of extreme events in documentary data
	Relevance for research on present and future impacts of extreme events
		Ability of historical case studies to reveal compound events
	Conclusion and outlook
	References
	Further reading
16
Climate extremes and conflict dynamics
	Introduction
	Conceptual framework of vulnerability to climate extremes and conflict
	Empirical linkages between climate extremes and violent conflict
	Conditions and mechanisms in the disaster-conflict nexus
		Conditions and mechanisms
		Value losses
		Disruption of capabilities
		Risk multiplier, instability, and compound effects
		Exemplary cases
		Conflictive policies
	Conclusions: From conflict to transformation
	Acknowledgments
	References
17
Avoiding impacts and impacts avoided: Impact science to inform adaptation action and policy-relevant assessments
	Introduction
	Impact science for policy-relevant assessments
		The post-Paris policy context
			The global stocktake under the Paris Agreement
			SDGs and climate action
		Recent developments in mitigation policy-relevant climate impact science
			Differential climate impacts at 0.5°C warming increments
			Impacts beyond global mean temperature
			The shared socioeconomic pathways
			Extending the tipping point concept
			Climate-related loss and damage
	Impact science to inform adaptation
		Near-term focus
		The need for regional to local information
		Adaptation finance
		Climate impact modeling for adaptation
			Model requirements
			General circulation modeling versus climate analog
	Synthesis and outlook
	References
18
Outlook: Challenges for societal resilience under climate extremes
	Introduction
	Climate extremes and sustainable development goals
	Risk cascades involving compound events and system dynamics
	Outlook: International and transdisciplinary collaboration
	References
Index
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