Climate Change: Turning up the Heat

Contents......Page 4
Foreword......Page 7
Acknowledgements......Page 8
Introduction......Page 10
1 Climate change matters......Page 14
Turning up the heat......Page 15
Why is the present rapid warming happening?......Page 21
The importance of delayed climate responses......Page 25
Observed impacts......Page 27
Trends in human vulnerability......Page 31
Projections of future climate change......Page 33
Facing the challenge......Page 34
Conclusion......Page 35
2 Learning from the past......Page 37
Proxy data: clues from the past......Page 38
The record of the ice ages......Page 40
The causes of past climate change......Page 43
Rapid climate changes in the past......Page 50
The last 10,000 years......Page 53
Conclusions from the past record......Page 57
The need for, and nature of, foresight......Page 59
Predictions, scenarios and projections......Page 60
The emissions scenarios used by the IPCC......Page 62
Projections of socio-economic futures......Page 65
Forecasting the weather......Page 69
Why climate projections are different......Page 70
The state of climate projections......Page 75
Despite uncertainties, decisions have to be made......Page 77
Uncertainty in climate change projections......Page 79
From polarisation to probability and risk......Page 83
Estimating risk......Page 87
Uncertainty and the role of sceptics......Page 90
Application of the ‘precautionary principle’......Page 95
5 What climate changes are likely?......Page 97
Projected climate changes......Page 98
Scenarios in a nutshell......Page 118
6 Impacts: Why be concerned?......Page 119
Climate change impacts – reasons for concern......Page 121
Thresholds and abrupt changes......Page 123
Risks to unique and threatened systems......Page 125
Risks from extreme climate events......Page 128
Distribution of impacts......Page 133
Aggregate impacts......Page 136
Waking the ‘sleeping giants’......Page 137
Stabilisation of greenhouse gas concentrations......Page 142
Growing reasons for concern......Page 145
Adaptation concepts and strategies......Page 146
Costs and benefits of adaptation......Page 150
Implementation......Page 151
Effects of different rates of climatic change......Page 155
Equity issues in adaptation......Page 156
Enhancing adaptive capacity......Page 159
Why mitigation is necessary......Page 163
How much mitigation is needed?......Page 165
Where we are now......Page 171
How difficult is mitigation?......Page 175
The looming peak in oil production......Page 180
Increased energy efficiency......Page 181
Fuel substitution......Page 183
Nuclear power......Page 185
Solar energy......Page 186
Wind power......Page 188
Biomass energy......Page 189
Tidal, wave and geothermal energy......Page 192
The hydrogen economy......Page 193
Carbon capture and sequestration......Page 196
Land-based carbon sinks......Page 199
Changes in infrastructure and behaviour......Page 201
Technological innovation: attitude is vital......Page 202
The road to effective mitigation......Page 203
9 Climate change in context......Page 209
Surface air pollution and climate change......Page 210
Stratospheric ozone depletion......Page 212
Land degradation and desertification......Page 213
Freshwater......Page 214
Population growth......Page 216
Synergies and trade-offs......Page 218
Integration, sustainable development and equity......Page 219
Is the science credible?......Page 222
What about the uncertainty?......Page 224
How realistic are the scenarios?......Page 225
Choosing global and local emissions targets......Page 227
How urgently do we need to act?......Page 230
How much will reducing emissions cost?......Page 231
Meeting targets most efficiently......Page 233
International equity: what is fair?......Page 236
The importance of equity within countries......Page 244
Equity between generations......Page 246
The role of governments and NGOs......Page 247
What role should business take?......Page 248
The role of state and local governments......Page 254
So what are the politics of greenhouse?......Page 256
A brief history......Page 258
The Kyoto Protocol......Page 261
National interests and climate change......Page 265
African Nations......Page 266
Australia and New Zealand......Page 269
China......Page 275
European Union......Page 278
India, Pakistan and Bangladesh......Page 280
Latin America......Page 282
The Russian Federation......Page 284
Small Island States......Page 286
United States of America......Page 290
The common interest in global solutions......Page 295
12 Accepting the challenge......Page 297
Looking beyond the Kyoto Protocol......Page 302
Addressing the key issues......Page 305
Introduction......Page 309
Bibliography/reading list......Page 310
Websites......Page 314
Index......Page 322