Climate Change and Impacts in the Pacific (Springer Climate)

Preface\nContents\nAbbreviations\nChapter 1: Climate Change and the Pacific Islands\n	1.1 Introduction\n	1.2 Impacts of Climate Change\n		1.2.1 Global Warming of 1.5 °C\n		1.2.2 Global Warming and Sea-Level Rise\n		1.2.3 Changing Weather Patterns and Extreme Events\n		1.2.4 Pressure on Water and Food\n		1.2.5 Human Health Risks\n		1.2.6 Impact on Wildlife and Ecosystems\n	1.3 The Pacific Ocean: Location, Size, and Distribution\n	1.4 Emissions by Pacific Island Countries\n	1.5 Projected Climate Change and Impacts\n	1.6 Economic Impacts in the Pacific\n	1.7 Migration and Displacement Due to Climate Change\n	1.8 Adaptation, Adaptive Capacity, and Lack of Information and Information Communication Infrastructure\n	1.9 Conclusions\n	References\nChapter 2: Islands in the Pacific: Settings, Distribution and Classification\n	2.1 Introduction\n	2.2 Island Settings: The Pacific Basin and Its Oceanic Islands\n	2.3 Classifying Pacific Islands: Data Sources\n		2.3.1 Island Locations and Shapes\n		2.3.2 Island Areas\n		2.3.3 Island Names\n		2.3.4 Island Elevations\n		2.3.5 Island Lithologies\n	2.4 Island Types: Outcomes of Classification\n	2.5 Characteristics of Islands in the Pacific\n		2.5.1 Distribution of Islands\n		2.5.2 Areas of Islands\n		2.5.3 Maximum Elevations of Islands\n	2.6 Distribution of Island Types\n	2.7 Conclusions\n	Appendix: The Island Database\n	References\nChapter 3: Climate Change Scenarios and Projections for the Pacific\n	3.1 Introduction\n	3.2 Major Features of Climate Variability in the Pacific\n		3.2.1 South Pacific Convergence Zone\n		3.2.2 El Niño-Southern Oscillation\n		3.2.3 Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation\n	3.3 Observed Climate Variability and Change in the Pacific\n		3.3.1 General Perspective\n		3.3.2 Temperature\n		3.3.3 Rainfall\n		3.3.4 Tropical Cyclones\n		3.3.5 Sea Level\n	3.4 Climate Projections\n		3.4.1 Overview\n		3.4.2 Emission Scenarios and Pathways\n		3.4.3 Climate Model Evaluations\n		3.4.4 Climate Model Projections for the Pacific\n			El Niño-Southern Oscillation\n			South Pacific Convergence Zone\n			Rainfall\n			Extreme Rainfall\n			Sea-Level Rise\n	3.5 Summary\n	References\nChapter 4: Comparison of the Physical Susceptibility of Pacific Islands to Risks Potentially Associated with Variability in Weather and Climate\n	4.1 Introduction\n	4.2 Aim\n	4.3 The Indicative Susceptibility Index\n		4.3.1 Methods and Variables Used\n		4.3.2 Results: Susceptibility Index\n		4.3.3 Discussion: Indicative Susceptibility\n	4.4 An Exposure Index\n		4.4.1 Methods and Variables Used\n		4.4.2 Compilation of the Exposure Index\n	4.5 Compilation of the Geomorphic Sensitivity Index\n	4.6 Results\n	4.7 Discussion and Conclusions\n	References\nChapter 5: Downscaling from Whole-Island to an Island-Coast Assessment of Coastal Landform Susceptibility to Metocean Change in the Pacific Ocean\n	5.1 Introduction\n	5.2 Downscaling and Upscaling\n	5.3 Methodology\n		5.3.1 Overview\n		5.3.2 Calculation of Susceptibility\n		5.3.3 Determination of Island Instability\n		5.3.4 The Indicative Vulnerability of Whole Islands\n	5.4 Results\n		5.4.1 Weighted and Non-weighted Estimates of Island Susceptibility\n		5.4.2 Weighted and Non-weighted Estimates of the Instability of the Coastal Fringe of Islands\n		5.4.3 Indicative Vulnerability at an Island Scale\n	5.5 Discussion and Conclusions\n	References\nChapter 6: A Review of South Pacific Tropical Cyclones: Impacts of Natural Climate Variability and Climate Change\n	6.1 Introduction\n	6.2 Historical Data Records and Homogeneity\n	6.3 Climatological Characteristics\n	6.4 Tropical Cyclones and Natural Climate Variability\n		6.4.1 Impact of ENSO\n		6.4.2 Impact of the MJO\n	6.5 Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change\n		6.5.1 Overview\n		6.5.2 Paleotempestology\n		6.5.3 Trends from Observations\n		6.5.4 Results from Climate Modelling Experiments\n	6.6 Socio-economic Impacts of Tropical Cyclones\n	6.7 Summary\n	References\nChapter 7: Impacts of Climate Change on Coastal Infrastructure in the Pacific\n	7.1 Introduction\n	7.2 Case Study: Exposure of Coastal Built Infrastructure Assets in the South Pacific to Climate Risks\n		7.2.1 Introduction\n		7.2.2 Methods\n		7.2.3 Results and Discussion\n	References\nChapter 8: Population Distribution in the Pacific Islands, Proximity to Coastal Areas, and Risks\n	8.1 Introduction\n	8.2 Case Study: Exposure of Coastal Populations to Climate Risks in 12 Pacific Island Countries\n		8.2.1 Introduction\n		8.2.2 Methodology\n		8.2.3 Results\n			The Cook Islands\n			Federated States of Micronesia\n			Kiribati\n			The Marshall Islands\n			Nauru\n			Niue\n			Palau\n			Samoa\n			The Solomon Islands\n			Tonga\n			Tuvalu\n			Vanuatu\n		8.2.4 Discussion and Conclusions\n	References\nChapter 9: Agriculture Under a Changing Climate\n	9.1 Introduction\n	9.2 The Role of Agriculture in PICs\n		9.2.1 Significance in GDP\n		9.2.2 Significance of Agriculture at the Household Level\n		9.2.3 Significance of Agriculture for Social Cultural Activities\n		9.2.4 Resourcing Agriculture\n	9.3 Impacts of Extreme Events and Rising Sea Levels on Agriculture\n		9.3.1 Observed Impacts of Climate Change and Climate Variability on Agriculture\n		9.3.2 Future Impacts of Climate Change on Crops in PICs\n	9.4 Case Studies: Reducing the Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture\n		9.4.1 Tonga Agriculture Sector Plan for a Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture System\n		9.4.2 USAID Food Security Adaptation Project: Sabeto District, Nadi, Fiji Islands\n		9.4.3 Improving Soil Health and Land Availability: Atolls and High Islands\n			Atoll Soil Health Project\n			Use of Invasive Seaweed as an Organic Fertilizer\n			Use of Mucuna to Improve Soil Fertility and Resilience\n	9.5 Looking Ahead: Strategic Directions for Transforming Agriculture Under a Changing Climate\n		9.5.1 Priorities of Agriculture Sector Plans in Relation to Climate Change\n			Healthy Soils, Sustainable Land Management, and Access to Land\n			Sustainable Water Supply for Agriculture\n			Diverse Farming Systems\n			Climate-Smart Agriculture\n			Focus on Food Security\n		9.5.2 Opportunities for Transforming the Agriculture Sector\n			Vulnerability and Risk Assessments of Food Security and the Agriculture Sector (Before, During, and After Hazards)\n			Applied and Accessible Research\n			Genuine Partnerships\n			Resourcing\n	9.6 Conclusion\n	References\nChapter 10: Impacts of Climate Change on Marine Resources in the Pacific Island Region\n	10.1 Introduction\n		10.1.1 Physical and Biological Features of the Region\n		10.1.2 Ethnic and Cultural Diversity and Demography\n	10.2 Importance of Marine Resources to the People in the Pacific\n		10.2.1 Cultural and Social Importance of Marine Resources\n		10.2.2 Importance of Fisheries and Aquaculture for Food Security, Livelihoods and Economic Development\n		10.2.3 Importance of Marine Resources for Tourism\n	10.3 Vulnerability of Marine Resources to Climate Change\n		10.3.1 Impacts of Local Changes in Climate\n	10.4 Impacts of Climate Change on Marine Habitats\n		10.4.1 Oceanic Habitats and Food Webs\n		10.4.2 Coral Reefs\n		10.4.3 Seagrass Meadows\n		10.4.4 Mangroves\n	10.5 Impacts of Climate Change on Fish and Invertebrates\n		10.5.1 Coastal Fisheries\n			Indirect Effects\n			Direct Effects\n		10.5.2 Oceanic (Tuna) Fisheries\n		10.5.3 Sharks and Rays\n	10.6 Impacts of Changes to Marine Resources on Communities and Culture\n		10.6.1 Impacts of Changes to Marine Resources on Communities and Culture\n		10.6.2 Impacts of Changes to Marine Resources on Tourism and Aquaculture\n		10.6.3 Impacts on Economic Development and Government Revenue\n	10.7 Adaptation Options\n		10.7.1 Community-Based Adaptation and Resilience\n		10.7.2 Adaptations for Food Security\n			Adaptation Options to Minimise the Gap\n			Adaptations to Fill the Gap\n		10.7.3 Adaptations for Livelihoods\n		10.7.4 Economic Development and Government Revenue\n	10.8 Future Research\n	10.9 Conclusions\n	References\nChapter 11: Freshwater Availability Under Climate Change\n	11.1 Introduction\n	11.2 Freshwater Resources Availability\n		11.2.1 Diversity of Islands and Influences on Water Resources\n		11.2.2 Types of Freshwater Resources\n			Surface Water\n			Groundwater\n			Rainwater\n			Desalination\n			Importation\n			Other Sources\n			Further Information\n		11.2.3 Freshwater Uses\n			Water Supply\n			Other Freshwater Uses\n	11.3 Main Hydrological Influences on Freshwater Availability\n		11.3.1 Rainfall\n		11.3.2 Evapotranspiration\n		11.3.3 The Water Balance\n		11.3.4 Characteristics of Five Selected Islands\n	11.4 Current Freshwater Issues in Pacific Islands\n		11.4.1 Water Security\n		11.4.2 Access to Safe Water\n		11.4.3 Impacts of Current Climate Variability\n			Droughts\n			Tropical Cyclones, Storms, Floods and Landslides\n			Wave Overwash and Groundwater Inundation\n		11.4.4 Impacts of Non-climate-Related Natural Hazards\n		11.4.5 Impacts of Human Activities\n	11.5 Future Impacts of Climate Change on Water Security\n		11.5.1 Climate Change Projections\n		11.5.2 Impacts from Mean Rainfall and Evaporation Changes\n		11.5.3 Impacts from Extreme Rainfall Frequency and Intensity Changes\n		11.5.4 Impacts from Mean and Extreme Temperature Changes\n		11.5.5 Impacts from Tropical Cyclones\n		11.5.6 Impacts from Mean Sea Level Rise\n			Projected Mean Sea Level\n			Actual Sea Level Measurements and ENSO Effects\n			Impact Studies on Fresh Groundwater\n		11.5.7 Impacts from Wave Overwash in Addition to Mean Sea Level Rise\n		11.5.8 Resilience of Atoll Islands\n	11.6 Concluding Comments\n	References\nChapter 12: Climate Change and Impacts on Biodiversity on Small Islands\n	12.1 Introduction\n	12.2 Islands and Biodiversity Hotspots\n	12.3 Vulnerability of Biodiversity on Small Islands to Climate Change\n	12.4 Case Study: Climate Change Effects on Threatened Terrestrial Vertebrates of the Pacific Islands\n		12.4.1 Introduction\n		12.4.2 Methodology\n		12.4.3 Results and Discussion\n		12.4.4 Conclusions\n	References\nChapter 13: Economic Impacts and Implications of Climate Change in the Pacific\n	13.1 Introduction\n	13.2 Economic Settings of Pacific Islands\n	13.3 Economic Effects of Climate Change\n	13.4 Policy Options\n	13.5 Conclusions\n	References\nChapter 14: Adaptation to Climate Change: Contemporary Challenges and Perspectives\n	14.1 Introduction\n	14.2 Adaptation on Pacific Islands\n	14.3 Case Study 1: Seawalls as Intuitive Yet Maladaptive Responses to Shoreline Erosion in Rural Island Contexts\n	14.4 Case Study 2: Planned Relocation as an Adaptation Strategy—Examples from the Fiji Islands\n	14.5 Case Study 3: Peripherality—A Blessing or a Curse for Climate-Change Adaptation in Pacific Island Communities?\n	14.6 Case Study 4: Making Climate Finance Work—The Experience of Tonga\n	14.7 Case Study 5: Adapting Island Food Systems to Climate Change\n	14.8 Case Study 6: Challenges of Aligning Community Priorities for Climate-Change Adaptation with Donor Agendas\n	14.9 Case Study 7: Engaging Communities for Meaningful Forward Planning for Climate-Change Adaptation—Examples from Kadavu Island, Fiji\n	14.10 Case Study 8: Relocation as Climate-Change Adaptation—Precedents from Solomon Islands\n	14.11 Conclusions and Future Priorities\n	References\nIndex