CIA's Analysis of the Soviet Union, 1947-1991: A Documentary Collection

Cover Page
Preface - by Robert M. Gates, former Director of CIA
Introduction
	A critical view of the analysis
	A vigorous rejoinder
	Recent retrospective conferences
	Analysis during 1947-1991: A Multidisciplinary Review
	The production of Intelligence Analysis
	The document selection process
	A closer look at the newly released materials
	A large and comprehensive collection
	The selection of sample documents for the volume
	Declassified and Released DI and Intelligence Community Documents on the Soviet Union
Editors and Contributors to this Volume
	Editors
		Haines
		Leggett
	Contributors
Origin of CIA's Analysis of the Soviet Union, 1947-1991
	Author's Comments: Donald Steury
1. ORE 22-48 - Possibility of Direct Soviet Military Action During 1948
2. The Strategic Value to the USSR of the Conquest of Western Europe and the Near East (prior to 1950)
3. ORE 22-48 - Addendum
4. ORE 46-49 - Possibility of Direct Soviet Military Action During 1949
5. The Strength and Capabilities of Soviet Bloc Forces to Conduct Military Operations Against NATO
6. Intelligence of the Soviet Bloc
	Scientific and Technical Intelligence
	Economic Intelligence
	Armed Forces Intelligence
Analyzing Soviet Politics and Foreign Policy
	Author's Comments: Douglas Garthoff
7. Soviet Capabilities and Probably Courses of Action Through Mid-1959
	Conclusions
	Discussion
8. The 20th CPSU Congress in Retrospect: Its Principle Issues and Possible Effects on International Communism
	Pertinent Background Factors
	The Main Issues of the Congress
	Internal Aspects
	External Aspects
	The Meaning of the Congress for International Communism
9. December 21, 1961 - Memorandum for the Director
	1
	2
	3 - Internal Problems
	4
	5
	6 - Bloc Politics
	7
	8
	9
	10
	11
	12
	13
	14 - Foreign Policy
	15
	16
	17
	18
	19
	20
	21
	22
	23
	24
	25
10. Basic Factors and Main Tendencies in Current Soviet Policy
11. Soviet Foreign Policies and the Outlook for Soviet-American Relations
12. Changing Soviet Perceptions - Synopsis
13. Impact of a Polish Pope on the USSR
14. Soviet Support for International Terrorism - Key Judgments
15. Soviet Society in the 1980s: Problems and Prospects
16. Gorbachev's Domestic Challenge: The Looming Problems
CIA's Analysis of Soviet Science and Technology
	Author's Comments: Clarence Smith
17. Intelligence Memorandum No. 237 - Capabilities of the USSR in Air-to-Air Guided Missiles and Related Proximity Fuses
	Part 1
	Part 2
	Appendix A
18. Future Soviet Earth Satellite Capabilities
19. Geophysical and Astrophysical Instrumentation of Soviet Sputniks I, II, and III
20. Soviet Capabilities in Guided Missiles and Space Vehicles
	Foreword
	The Problem
	The Estimate
	Estimated Missile Reliabilities
	Estimated Reaction Times
21. Memorandum - The Soviet Reconnaissance Satellite Program
22. Soviet Capabilities for Strategic Attack
23. Soviet Strategic Air and Missile Defenses
24. Soviet Military Research and Development
25.
26. Soviet Quest for Supercomputing Capabilities
27. The Krasnoyarsk Radar: Closing the Final Gap in Coverage for Balistic Missile Early Warning
28. The Soviet Weapons Industry: An Overview
29. US Stealth Programs and Technology: Soviet Exploitation of the Western Press
30. The Flat Twin ABM Radar: Not as capable as previously believed
Assessing Soviet Economic Performance
	Author's Comments: James Noren
31. Long-Run Soviet Economic Growth
32. The New Lands Program in the USSR
33. Soviet Military Expenditures by Major Missions (1958-65)
34. Intelligence Report: Investment and Growth in the USSR
35. Soviet Economic and Technological Benefits from Detente
36. Soviet Grain Deficit
37. The Impending Soviet Oil Crisis
38. Soviet Economic Problems and Prospects
39. Organization and Management in the Soviet Economy: The Ceaseless Search for Panaceas
40. Outlook for the Siberia-to-Western Europe Natural Gas Pipeline
41. Gorbachev: Steering the USSR Into the 1990s
Estimating Soviet Military Intentions and Capabilities
	Author's Comments: Raymond Garthoff
42. The Soviet Strategic Military Posture, 1961-1967
43. Capabilities of the Soviet Theater Forces
44. Intelligence Memorandum: Soviet Defense Policy, 1962-1972
45. Summary of Conclusions
46. The Track Record in Strategic Estimating: An Evaluation of the Strategic National Intelligence Estimates, 1966-1975
47. Key Judgments
48. Intelligence Forecasts of Soviet Intercontinental Attack Forces: An Evaluation of the Record
49. The Development of Soviet Military Power: Trends Since 1965 and Prospects for the 1980s