China’s Macroeconomic Outlook: Quarterly Forecast and Analysis Report, September 2022

Preface
Acknowledgements
Summary
Contents
Contributors
1 China’s Macroeconomic Performance in 2022H1
	1.1 Industrial Production Was Improving, and the Service Sector Under Pressure Was Stabilizing
	1.2 The Employment Situation Fluctuated, and the Scissors Difference Between CPI and PPI Continued to Converge
	1.3 The Recovery of Manufacturing Investment Accelerated, While Investment in Infrastructure and Real Estate Remained Relatively Low
	1.4 Consumption Remained Weak, and Residents’ Income Kept Growing
	1.5 Imports and Exports Increased Steadily, and the Trade Mode was Continuously Optimized
	1.6 Government Bonds Boosted the Growth of Social Finance, and the Loan Structure of Enterprises Improved
	1.7 The Pressure on Government Revenue and Expenditure Increased, and the Revenue from Land Transfer Dropped Significantly
2 Projection for China’s Macroeconomy in 2022–2023
	2.1 Outlook for China’s Macroeconomy in 2022H2
	2.2 Assumptions on Exogenous Variables of CQMM
		2.2.1 Economic Growth Rates of the United States and the Euro Area
		2.2.2 Main Exchange Rates
		2.2.3 Growth Rate of Broad Money Supply (M2)
	2.3 Forecast of China’s Main Macroeconomic Indicators in 2022–2023
		2.3.1 Projected GDP Growth
		2.3.2 Projected Investment Growth
		2.3.3 Projected Consumption Growth
		2.3.4 Projected Growth of Key Price Indicators
		2.3.5 Projected Growth of Exports and Imports
3 Impact of US and European Economic Slowdown on the Chinese Economy
	3.1 Background
	3.2 Scenario Design
	3.3 Analysis of Simulation Results
	3.4 Further Analysis
	3.5 Policy Implications
4 Policy Recommendations
Appendix Report on the Questionnaire Survey on China’s Macroeconomic Situation and Policy in 2022
(September 2022. No. 19)
The World Economy in 2022
China’s Economic Situation in 2022
Outlook for China’s Macroeconomic Policies in 2022