Automation And Its Macroeconomic Consequences: Theory, Evidence, And Social Impacts

Automation and Its Macroeconomic Consequences......Page 3
Copyright......Page 4
Dedication......Page 5
Contents......Page 6
Preface......Page 9
A tour of the book......Page 12
Recommended use of the book in teaching......Page 15
Acknowledgments......Page 16
References......Page 17
1.1 Technological progress and its economic consequences......Page 20
1.2 The economic consequences of automation: Could this time be different?......Page 24
1.3 The social impacts of automation......Page 26
1.4 The race against, or the race with, the machine?......Page 30
1.5 Summary......Page 32
References......Page 33
2.1 Adoption of automation technology......Page 40
2.2 Dynamics of economic growth and welfare......Page 41
2.3 Dynamics of the labor force and of unemployment......Page 49
2.4 The evolution of inequality......Page 53
2.5 Summary......Page 60
References......Page 61
3.1 Occupations, jobs, and tasks susceptible to automation......Page 66
3.2 Cross-country evidence on the economic consequences of automation......Page 70
3.3 Summary......Page 81
References......Page 82
4.1.1 Growth rates in discrete and in continuous time......Page 85
4.1.2 Representative individuals and representative firms......Page 87
4.1.3 Aggregate production function......Page 88
4.2 The simplest version of the standard 1956 Solow model in discrete time......Page 93
4.3 The Solow model in continuous time with technological progress and with population growth......Page 100
4.4 The Solow model with automation......Page 108
4.5 Endogenization of the share of investment in traditional physical capital......Page 116
4.6 Automation and wage inequality......Page 119
4.7 The tradeoff between growth and inequality......Page 122
4.8 Summary......Page 125
References......Page 127
5.1 Introduction......Page 131
5.2 Cookbook procedures for static and dynamic optimization......Page 132
5.2.1 The method of Lagrange......Page 133
5.2.2 The method of Karush–Kuhn–Tucker......Page 141
5.2.3 Dynamic optimization in discrete time in the case of two time periods......Page 142
5.2.4 Dynamic optimization in continuous time......Page 144
5.3 Endogenous savings in the Ramsey–Cass–Koopmans model......Page 149
5.4 Automation in the Ramsey–Cass–Koopmans model......Page 156
5.5 Endogenous savings in the OLG model......Page 158
5.6 Automation in the OLG model......Page 165
5.7.1 Endogenous technological progress and automation......Page 168
5.7.2 Technological unemployment......Page 170
5.7.3 International trade, foreign direct investment, and automation......Page 172
5.8 Summary......Page 174
References......Page 176
6.1 Introduction and stylized facts......Page 181
6.2 Demographic change and its economic consequences......Page 186
6.3 How robots can help......Page 190
6.4 Future employment projections based on automation......Page 193
6.5 The reverse channel: could robots affect demography?......Page 194
6.6 Summary......Page 195
References......Page 197
7.1 The challenges......Page 204
7.2 Education as a strategy to cope with the negative effects of automation......Page 205
7.3 Labor market policies......Page 207
7.4 Taxation in the age of automation......Page 209
7.5 Social security in the age of automation......Page 214
7.6 Demand-side policies......Page 218
7.7 Summary......Page 219
References......Page 222
8 Peering into the future: long-run economic and social consequences of automation; with an epilogue on COVID-19......Page 226
8.1 Joblessness, misery, and deaths of despair or “the happy leisure society”?......Page 227
8.2 Spatial and regional implications: the future of cities......Page 229
8.3 The question of how we care for each other......Page 231
8.4 The meaning of being human......Page 233
8.5 Epilogue on COVID-19......Page 234
References......Page 235
Index......Page 239