Argentina: Income Support Policies Toward the Bicentennial (World Bank Country Study)

Contents......Page 3
Acknowledgments......Page 7
Preface......Page 8
Executive Summary......Page 10
Figure 1. Trends in Informality and Poverty, 1992–2006......Page 11
Figure 2. Evolution of Public Expenditures on Income Transfer Programs, 1995–2007......Page 12
What Has Happened since the Crisis?......Page 14
Figure 4. Plan Jefes Exit Paths of Jefes Beneficiaries, 2003–2007......Page 15
Box 1. The Preference for Employment......Page 17
What Is the Potential of Income Support to Reduce Structural Poverty in Argentina?......Page 18
Final Reflections: What Are the Preconditions for Integrated Social Protection?......Page 20
The Report......Page 21
Introduction......Page 24
Definitions: Social Protection and Income Support......Page 25
Table 1.1. Public Expenditure and Other Subitems in Constant Nominal Terms and as % of GDP, 2007......Page 28
The Origins of Income Transfer Programs in Argentina......Page 30
Emergency Response and Current Income Support Policy......Page 37
Table 2.1. Income Transfer Programs in Argentina, 2007......Page 48
3. Opinions and Preferences Toward Income Support......Page 55
Box 3.1. Do Opinion Surveys Matter?......Page 56
Figure 3.1. Objective of Social Programs: Universal Benefit and Family Allowances......Page 60
Figure 3.3. Interaction with Social Programs, 2002–2007......Page 62
Figure 3.5. General Evaluation of Programs (Agreement with the Statement “The Programs Work Well and Should Be Left as They Are”)......Page 64
Figure 3.6. Reasons for Exiting Benefit Programs......Page 65
Conclusions......Page 70
4. Income Support and the Role of the Provinces......Page 73
The Federal Model in Argentina......Page 74
Figure 4.2. Total Social Spending, by Government Level, 2000–2007......Page 77
Income Support Policies at the Provincial and Municipal Levels......Page 80
5. Policy Options and Future Challenges......Page 83
A Typology of Options......Page 84
Table 5.2. Basic Descriptive Statistics for the Urban Population, Second semester 2006......Page 86
Table 5.4. Simulated Scenarios......Page 88
Introducing Behavioral Responses......Page 93
Implementation Challenges......Page 96
6. Reflections, Challenges, and Policy Considerations......Page 98
7. References......Page 101
Appendixes......Page 104
Table A1.1 Distribution of Homes by Region and Surveys Carried Out......Page 106
Selection of Provinces and Key Informants......Page 108
Methodology......Page 109
Appendix C: Methodology of the Behavioral Simulation......Page 110
Table 1. Simulated Policy Impacts......Page 19
Table 2.2. Income Transfer Programs in Argentina—Basic Elements as of 2007......Page 53
Table 5.1. Income Transfers Typology and the Three Visions......Page 85
Figure 5.5. No School Attendance of Beneficiaries, by Age......Page 94
Table A1.2 Distribution of Homes by Strata and Surveys Carried Out......Page 107
Table A3.1 Log Earnings Regression for Reported Earnings of Children Ages 12–18......Page 111
Figure 3. Social Protection Spending at the Provincial Level, 1980–2006 (% of GDP)......Page 13
Figure 5. Evolution of Social Security Benefits......Page 16
Figure 1.1. Evolution of Income Transfer Spending, 1994–2006......Page 29
Figure 2.1. Benefits and Beneficiaries of the Pension System, 1950–2007......Page 31
Figure 2.2. Beneficiaries of the Pension System by Administrator, 1950–2007......Page 32
Figure 2.3. Contributory Resources as a Percentage of Social Security Spending, 1950–2007......Page 33
Figure 2.4. Beneficiaries of the Income Support Programs, 1992–2006......Page 34
Figure 2.5. Pensions and Survivors’ Pensions—Beneficiaries and Average Benefits, 1970–2007......Page 35
Figure 2.6. Family Allowances and Unemployment Insurance—Number of Beneficiaries, 1992–2007......Page 36
Figure 2.7. GDP, Poverty, and Inequality, 1980–2007......Page 38
Figure 2.8. GDP, Unemployment, and Informality, 1980–2007......Page 39
Figure 2.9. Cash Transfer Programs (CCTs and Workfare) from the Federal Government—Number and Amount of Benefits, 1993–2007......Page 41
Figure 2.10 Plan Jefes: Exit paths of Jefes’ beneficiaries, 2003–2007......Page 42
Figure 2.11. NCP—Number and Amount of Benefits, 1989–2007......Page 45
Figure 2.12. Average and Minimum Real Benefits, and Percentage of Beneficiaries Earning the Minimum Benefit, 1977–2007......Page 47
Figure 2.13. Potential Poverty Rate Increase in the Absence of Income Transfer Programs, 1997–2007......Page 49
Figure 2.14. Number of Income Transfers Received by Households—Total and First Quintile, 1997–2007......Page 50
Figure 2.15. Percentage of Households Receiving Program Benefits by Poverty Condition, 1997–2007......Page 51
Figure 2.16. Lorenz Curves for Per Capita Income and Income Transfer Programs, 1997–2007......Page 52
Figure 3.2. Familiarity with Social Programs (Spontaneous and Guided Responses)......Page 61
Figure 3.4. Overall Views on Existing Social Programs (Leave or Replace Them)......Page 63
Figure 3.7. Types of Contraprestaciones......Page 66
Figure 3.8. Preferred Amount of Monthly Plan Jefes Benefit......Page 68
Figure 3.10. The Choice between Jefes and Hypothetical Programs (similar to Familias/Seguro)......Page 69
Figure 3.11. Preferred Characteristics of Social Programs (Submodule)......Page 71
Figure 4.1. Structure of Public Revenues and Expenditures, by Level, 1961–2004......Page 75
Figure 4.3. Participation of Government Levels in Spending on Social Sectors, 2007 (Percent of GDP)......Page 78
Figure 4.4. Provincial Spending on Social Protection, by Sector, 1980–2007 (Percent of GDP)......Page 79
Box 4.1. The Case of Ciudadania Porteña......Page 81
Figure 5.1. Simulation Results for a Transfer to Unemployed People......Page 89
Figure 5.2. Simulation Results for a Transfer to Poor Households......Page 90
Figure 5.3. Simulation Results for a Transfer to Households with Children under 18......Page 91
Figure 5.4. Simulation Results for Family Allowances and a Transfer to the Elderly......Page 92
Box 1.1. Integration of Social Protection......Page 27
Box 2.1. The Transition of Plan Jefes, Familias, and Seguro......Page 44
Box 2.2. The Moratoria......Page 46
Box 5.1. Family Allowances in Uruguay......Page 95