Arctic Security in an Age of Climate Change

Contents......Page 8
Figures and Tables......Page 10
Contributor Biographies......Page 12
Foreword ARCTIC FUTURES: THE POLITICS OF TRANSFORMATION......Page 22
ARCTIC STATE CHANGES......Page 23
ARCTIC STATES/ICE STATES – TENSIONS WITHIN THE FAMILY......Page 24
ARCTIC STATES/NON-ARCTIC STATES: THE ARCTIC IN WORLD AFFAIRS......Page 25
THE POWER OF FRAMING: ARCTIC SECURITY VS. ARCTIC STEWARDSHIP......Page 26
PART I Introduction: Circumpolar Perspectives......Page 30
POINTS OF DEPARTURE......Page 32
ARCTIC TENDENCIES......Page 35
WHERE NEXT?......Page 43
THE ARCTIC MARINE SHIPPING ASSESSMENT......Page 49
ARCTIC MARINE OPERATIONS......Page 52
UNCERTAINTIES AND SECURITY FACTORS......Page 55
PLAUSIBLE ARCTIC MARINE INCIDENTS......Page 56
TRANSARCTIC NAVIGATION......Page 57
KEY ARCTIC POLICY ISSUES AHEAD......Page 60
FINAL THOUGHTS – ARCTIC MARINE TRANSPORT AND SECURITY ISSUES......Page 61
INTRODUCTION......Page 62
LATEST FINDINGS ON THE RATE OF CLIMATE CHANGE......Page 63
THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON PORTS IN ASIA......Page 64
THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON SEA LANES – THE OPENING OF THE NORTHERN SEA ROUTE......Page 66
FUTURE SHIPPING IN THE ARCTIC......Page 68
IMPROVEMENTS NEEDED BEFORE SHIPPING IN THE ARCTIC BECOMES A REALITY......Page 69
CONCLUSION......Page 70
PART II European Security Interests in the Arctic......Page 74
INTRODUCTION......Page 76
INDIVISIBLE SECURITY......Page 77
THE RUSSIA FACTOR, HARD AND SOFT SECURITY......Page 79
ARCTIC STRATEGIES – THE CASE OF NORWAY......Page 85
THE CONFLICT POTENTIAL......Page 89
CONCLUSION......Page 91
INTRODUCTION......Page 93
SECURITY: CONCEPT, REGIMES, AND INSTITUTIONS......Page 95
NORWAY’S HIGH NORTH POLICY: THE DILEMMAS OF LOW AND HIGH POLITICS......Page 99
LEGAL REGIMES: CONTINUITY OR CHANGE?......Page 103
RUSSIA AND THE ARCTIC......Page 107
CONCLUSION......Page 110
FURTHER READING......Page 111
INTRODUCTION......Page 114
THE MILITARY AND RUSSIA’S FOREIGN POLICY STRATEGY......Page 115
THE ARCTIC IN THE NUCLEAR DETERRENCE......Page 120
NATURAL RESOURCES AND MILITARY MISSION REQUIREMENTS......Page 123
RUSSIA’S SYMMETRICAL THREAT PERCEPTIONS IN THE ARCTIC......Page 127
RESPONSES TO NONTRADITIONAL SECURITY CHALLENGES......Page 131
CONCLUSION......Page 133
7 The Russian Arctic in the Twenty-First Century......Page 136
THE ARCTIC IN TWENTIETH-CENTURY GEOPOLITICS......Page 137
RUSSIA AND THE ARCTIC......Page 139
SECURITY AND NAVAL OPERATIONS......Page 140
THE NORTHEAST PASSAGE AND THE NORTHERN SEA ROUTE......Page 142
THE ARCTIC WATERSHED......Page 144
CHANGE IN THE ARCTIC: BREACHING THE FOURTH WALL OF CONTAINMENT......Page 145
ARCTIC TECHNOLOGY......Page 146
CHANGING CLIMATE......Page 147
CHANGES OF INTERNATIONAL LAW......Page 148
RUSSIA'S ARCTIC VISION......Page 149
MILITARY SECURITY......Page 150
TRANSPORTATION AND MARITIME POLICY......Page 152
AN ARCTIC GEOGRAPHICAL PIVOT: IMPLICATIONS AND OPPORTUNITIES......Page 153
1. DRIVERS OF CHANGE......Page 158
2. EFFECT......Page 159
3. STRATEGIC CONSEQUENCES......Page 161
4. RUSSIA......Page 166
5. CONSEQUENCES FOR THE NORDIC REGION AND FINLAND......Page 169
CONCLUSIONS – THE ARCTIC SECURITY AGENDA......Page 172
DENMARK’S AWAKENING AWARENESS OF THE ARCTIC......Page 174
Greenland: From Home Rule to Self-Government......Page 176
Global Warming and Prospects for Arctic Economic Development......Page 177
Greenland as a New Petroleum Region......Page 178
The Arctic Conflict Potential......Page 179
The Potential for Arctic Cooperation......Page 181
FUTURE NONMILITARY TASKS FOR DENMARK......Page 182
Regime Policy......Page 183
DEFENSE TASKS IN AND AROUND GREENLAND......Page 186
Denmark's Military Presence in Greenland in 2010......Page 187
VIEWS ON ARCTIC DEFENSE AFTER 2010......Page 188
ARCTIC SECURITY POLICY, 2010–2014......Page 189
CONCLUSION......Page 192
CONSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORK......Page 195
U.S. MILITARY PRESENCE......Page 196
DANISH MILITARY PRESENCE IN GREENLAND......Page 198
DANISH DEFENSE AGREEMENT FOR THE YEARS 2010–2014......Page 199
POSSIBLE DISPUTE: THE CONTINENTAL SHELF......Page 200
THE DISPUTE WITH CANADA CONCERNING HANS ISLAND......Page 201
PERSPECTIVES AND CONCLUSIONS......Page 202
INTRODUCTION......Page 203
THE ARCTIC IMAGINATION: HISTORICAL MYTHS AS POLITICAL INSTRUMENTS......Page 205
ICELAND’S NEW PLACE: THE AMERICAN WITHDRAWAL AND RUSSIAN GEOPOLITICS......Page 208
STRATEGIC DISCOURSES VERSUS IDENTITY POLITICS......Page 209
CONCLUSION......Page 216
PART III North American Security Interests in the Arctic......Page 220
INTRODUCTION......Page 222
UNDERSTANDING CANADIAN ARCTIC SECURITY AND SOVEREIGNTY......Page 223
THE SECURITY AND SOVEREIGNTY CHALLENGES AND TO THE CANADIAN ARCTIC......Page 225
THE CHANGING ARCTIC......Page 227
CHANGES IN THE CLIMATE......Page 228
CHANGES IN RESOURCE EXPECTATIONS......Page 230
CHANGING INTERNATIONAL REGIME......Page 232
DENMARK......Page 234
ICELAND......Page 235
NORWAY......Page 236
RUSSIA......Page 238
SWEDEN......Page 241
UNITED STATES......Page 242
CANADA......Page 243
CONCLUSION......Page 245
13 Polar Race or Polar Saga?......Page 247
BACKGROUND......Page 248
Scenario-Based Thinking......Page 256
CANADIAN DEFENSE, SOVEREIGNTY, AND ARCTIC SECURITY......Page 260
DIPLOMACY......Page 263
CONCLUSION: A CANADIAN NORTHERN STRATEGY......Page 270
14 The New Arctic Geography and U.S. Strategy......Page 273
RUSSIA FEDERATION – ARCTIC HEGEMON?......Page 276
STRENGTHENING NORTH AMERICAN ARCTIC SECURITY......Page 280
FREEDOM OF THE SEAS......Page 287
ARCTIC NAVAL OPERATIONS......Page 291
ARCTIC AIR AND GROUND OPERATIONS......Page 293
CONCLUSION......Page 295
THE CHANGING ARCTIC ENVIRONMENT......Page 296
Natural Resources......Page 300
Transportation Access and Operational Challenges......Page 301
Boundary Disputes, Security Concerns......Page 302
THE U.S. NAVY’S ROLE IN A CHANGING ARCTIC......Page 303
Drivers......Page 305
Communications and Outreach......Page 307
Phase 2 – FYs 2011 and 2012......Page 308
Conclusion......Page 309
INTRODUCTION......Page 310
THE NSS, THE SDSR AND THE UK GEOSTRATEGIC PERSPECTIVE ON THE ARCTIC REGION......Page 312
MILITARY PRESENCE IN THE ARCTIC REGION......Page 316
THE ARCTIC: UK PERSPECTIVES ON PARTNERSHIPS AND ALLIANCES......Page 319
NATO......Page 320
THE ARCTIC: A PRIMARY SOURCE OF STATE-ON-STATE CONFRONTATION?......Page 321
Russia and the Arctic: Feeding the Bear's Re-Emergence from Strategic Hibernation?......Page 322
The China Factor......Page 324
COMMERCIAL SHIPPING......Page 325
CONCLUSIONS......Page 326
Index......Page 328